Aussie Pairs

better 0.9088

Guys, any ideas when AUD/JPY will bounce back ? 90, 89, 88? ...less?

The AUD party is almost over - it's true level is around .75. there may be a few more plays and bumping around but expect it to downward trend from here

I figure the last week of March will be the buy time for the yen crosses, in the lead up to the new Japanese fiscal year starting 4/1. Most of the yen repatriation by Japanese funds will be complete by that time (if it isn't already). Last April was a very good month for the crosses, AJ +500 pips.

Well, I am pretty sure it was even lower than that. However the dollar got flushed since that time, its not a world's currency anymore. I don't know what should have happen to AU to have the same effect-- nuclear bombing perhaps, war, ets

Following up this post I sent back in October (see below) where I recommended buying up until the next swing high target in AUD at the next major resistance level .9495 ....we have recently gotten a new swing at .9496 (see attached AUD chart),occured 28 Feb ...so the predicted resistance was OK (1 tick off)...time was wrong though.

.8581 level is also marked on the chart(red line), was the level I outlined as buying support level in an email in early december(Post #1629 in this thread) just before the 8553 low occured,

I have since mentioned another forecast possible high level (ie higher high above .9496) , but bottomline I would like too see more of the sequence of current lows before I nail myself any further to that previous forecast ...fwiw

30/31 March is a suitable potential date (imo) for a next turn possibly with respect to the above which fits the current AUD pattern ..fwiw





Oct 16, 2007 9:14pm
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Quote
"AUD is massively overvalued for the size of the economy and various fundamentals. USD is now massively undervalued for an economy that is 28% of the entire world's GDP - this is due to overreaction to what is happening there which turned into an over-extended momentum."

Even if this statement is true ...since when did a consensus of opinions on over or undervaluation (or any other fundamental) stop an FX trend (imo).

For mine I will continue too buy dips until 9495 level on around 4 Feb until proven wrong or limit filled.

i hope i'm not posting a stupid chart... i'm long at the breakout, with 0.95 target (at least).
daily doesn't show any signs of trend weakness so far - in fact, there is something that looks like a bull flag on daily - so i am expecting another decent rally.

Consumer sentiment was shocking, I'm surprized AUD has held these levels all day actually.

Employment numbers tomorrow may set of the selling as expectations of future interest rate drop.

Might be time to sell the pop if they come in higher than expected

an odd trend is breaking here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDU...m&q=l&c=%5EDJI - either that or the AUD is about to break big time

Well that was eerily well timed! Aussie nosedived 160 pips right after you posted that.

10 year wedge on EUR/AUD could experience a clean break!

From ET, aussie futures fell 400! (erroneously it would appear..)

"Futures went from 9180 to 8785 in a minute...."
"They are busting all trades below 9036 in the futures"

Dear all,

I noticed the Aussie opened with a gap upwards (Friday close was about 9372 and it opened 94xx) and continued to go upwards despite the fed discount rate cut.

It climbed to 9450 before taking that big dive to around 9200 which is around a fibo level (sorry don't have charts with me in the office)

But could anyone explain why the aussie first went up (or even perhaps opened with a gap upwards) despite the fed cutting discount rates which is seen as risk aversion (looking at the yen gapping downwards) only to dive 200 pips down 2-3 hours later?

Thanks

Holy cow you see that move, 500 pips in a heartbeat.

I just longs some AUDUSD for scalp, closed...can't wait to wake up tomorrow and see the calamity on wall street.

Any bottom feeders here in AJ? Off 4.6%, the hardest hit carry cross, at levels we haven't seen since the intraday August shock lows. If we close here, it'll be the lowest close since Oct '06.

EUR/AUD breaking the multi-year wedge for a second time.
A clean break of this level could mean further losses across all carries!

We are in uncharted waters sailing to new lands, where the beer flows freely and the women as well Just wish I knew how to trade these new waters Just don't get stuck in any long term views.

That EURAUD trade was fairly predictable, I just picked the wrong day to be out of the market... hehehe

You are certainly speaking sincerely on uncharted waters...I'll be watching, more watching and less trading.

DAMM you A.J DO SOMETHING!!! just hanging out with the 200 becoming best friends

Finally, a little separation between you two lovers.