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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #901
  • Mar 5, 2008 5:59pm Mar 5, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting ernesto
EUR/USD looks great! Guess I will print it out and put it on a wall... fascinating.

Could you take a look at the following formation in AUD/USD.... any opinion on that? Might be a reversal pattern....
Sorry, I can't see any specifics here at the moment.
  • #902
  • Mar 6, 2008 5:26pm Mar 6, 2008 5:26pm
Bit of a tight weekly range on USDCAD at the moment.

Main move of the week has just turned down.

Possible target could be 97.00 for a third touch of the support on the daily chart?
  • #903
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:31pm Mar 6, 2008 10:31pm
Quoting BentRod
Bit of a tight weekly range on USDCAD at the moment.

Main move of the week has just turned down.

Possible target could be 97.00 for a third touch of the support on the daily chart?

I doubt that this line is having some technical significance.
  • #904
  • Mar 6, 2008 10:38pm Mar 6, 2008 10:38pm
That was the only other target I could see besides weekly ATR that could be valid if one were to take the trade.

Any thoughts on USDCAD or no trade there??

Cheers.
  • #905
  • Mar 6, 2008 11:19pm Mar 6, 2008 11:19pm
Quoting BentRod
That was the only other target I could see besides weekly ATR that could be valid if one were to take the trade.

Any thoughts on USDCAD or no trade there??

Cheers.
A NFP Friday is usually easy to trade and no need for guessing. Just stay with the direction of the main move of the day.
  • #906
  • Mar 11, 2008 11:35am Mar 11, 2008 11:35am
Seeing the overall trendline weekly or monthly on usd/yen and reading your statement posted earlier i look for a bottom last night and banked a few pips. had i been patient enough i would still be in the trade waiting for the gap to close. in at 101.50 out at 101.90 so its obvious i missed a few hundred pips but i am still learning.
Quoting Igrok
It hasn't reached the measured objective target yet, which seems to be at around 99.00. Then a series of CB interventions is likely to bring it back up again. Most likely the volatlity will be large enough to cover the gap.
All I ask is a chance to prove that money can't make me happy.
  • #907
  • Edited Mar 13, 2008 12:06am Mar 12, 2008 11:54pm | Edited Mar 13, 2008 12:06am
Quoting telluv
Seeing the overall trendline weekly or monthly on usd/yen and reading your statement posted earlier i look for a bottom last night and banked a few pips. had i been patient enough i would still be in the trade waiting for the gap to close. in at 101.50 out at 101.90 so its obvious i missed a few hundred pips but i am still learning.
Gaps don't usually show the direction but when the market already goes in the direction of the gaps they may serve as a minimal target projection.

Considering current situation and despite some gaps left on the EUR/USD and USDX as well as on the USD/JPY I would say that those levels are like the debts the market will pay off one day but it might take time.

At this moment 100.00 round figure on the USD/JPY doesn't present a serious support cause it has no technical significance and is likely to be penetrated soon. Contrary to that, the parity level on the USD/CHF looks like a legit support to me, both technical and psychological.
  • #908
  • Mar 13, 2008 3:59am Mar 13, 2008 3:59am
Gday Ig,
Given the levels of USDJPY is it a candidate for a 20.7 now?

Also regarding the Gaps on USDJPY, which chart are you guys refering to?
All the gaps I can see have been filled?

Cheers
  • #909
  • Mar 13, 2008 4:55am Mar 13, 2008 4:55am
Quoting BentRod
Gday Ig,
Given the levels of USDJPY is it a candidate for a 20.7 now?

Also regarding the Gaps on USDJPY, which chart are you guys refering to?
All the gaps I can see have been filled?

Cheers
There are too many cheer leaders at the moment talking the USD/JPY into much lower levels than it is right now. It makes me cautious and despite technically it looks bearish enough at the moment, I wouldn't want to trade it at all just because BoJ might have a different view on the issue.

There are a lot of gaps on the USDX including the freshest and the closest one left above yesterday's high.
  • #910
  • Mar 13, 2008 10:21am Mar 13, 2008 10:21am
Looks like there is a 1 hour triangle on EURUSD.
  • #911
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:27am Mar 14, 2008 7:27am
EUR/USD monthly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly EUR A0-FX.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #912
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:37am Mar 14, 2008 10:37am
GBP/CHF monthly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly GBPCHF A0-FX.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #913
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:32pm Mar 14, 2008 3:32pm
Igrok, currently reading through your book... maybe you can help me with the following questions:

* Which time frames do you use? Monthly, Weekly, Daily for Long term trends and H4/H1 for daytrading? Or even smaller ones?

* On which time frames do you look for RSI/MACD divergences?

* What do you think about Price action (inside/outside bars,...)

* Do you consider monthly, weekly, daily pivots?

Thanks for your help.
  • #914
  • Edited 9:56pm Mar 14, 2008 9:35pm | Edited 9:56pm
Quoting ernesto
Igrok, currently reading through your book... maybe you can help me with the following questions:

* Which time frames do you use? Monthly, Weekly, Daily for Long term trends and H4/H1 for daytrading? Or even smaller ones?

* On which time frames do you look for RSI/MACD divergences?

* What do you think about Price action (inside/outside bars,...)

* Do you consider monthly, weekly, daily pivots?

Thanks for your help.
I think you have to finish the book first because after that you will get quite different questions.
  • #915
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:29pm Mar 14, 2008 10:29pm
Igrok, What is you opinion on elliott wave analysis? Do you make use of it?
  • #916
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:13pm Mar 14, 2008 11:13pm
Quoting rudenstein
Igrok, What is you opinion on elliott wave analysis? Do you make use of it?
I'm familiar with elliott wave theory. I tested and abandoned it about 12-13 years ago. On my opinion it certainly makes sense while researching the past, but it's not fit for future and thus has no practical value. Don't forget that Mr. Elliott himself had never been able to make even a few cents off his theory in real market trading. It might not be the fault of his theory as traders are usually capable of much more than they make in trading, but I think I have found a much easier way to make money in the market than Mr. Elliott did.
  • #917
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:54pm Mar 14, 2008 11:54pm
Igrok,

Personally, I have done fine with long-term fundamental analysis + well drawn daily chart resistance/support lines and MAs.

The reason I asked you is that I came across the following article:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/New_Zealand_Dollar__MAJOR_Reversal_1205523400647.html

It supposedly predicts a major reversal in the NZD/USD based on NOTHING but ellliot wave theory! I thought the people at dailyfx.com were pros. Are these trades are just analysts?

Anyway, what do you think about this? Something does seem right.
  • #918
  • Edited 1:14am Mar 15, 2008 12:15am | Edited 1:14am
Quoting rudenstein
Igrok,

Personally, I have done fine with long-term fundamental analysis + well drawn daily chart resistance/support lines and MAs.

The reason I asked you is that I came across the following article:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/New_Zealand_Dollar__MAJOR_Reversal_1205523400647.html

It supposedly predicts a major reversal in the NZD/USD based on NOTHING but ellliot wave theory! I thought the people at dailyfx.com were pros. Are these trades are just analysts?

Anyway, what do you think about this? Something does seem right.
At this particular trading levels everyone can predict USD major reversal. No need to be a genius for that. Every trend comes to an end sooner or later. It's obvious, and not only on NZD/USD. The real issue is how to make money on this next move because trading is not about predicting the future but rather about watching the present and acting on it appropriately. It always eventually boils down to three major things: where to take a position, where to place stops and what level should be targeted. Of course, the right money management approach should help in defining the correct leverage for each particular case. Elliott wave method pretends to be some sort of a scientific way of fortune-telling while being in fact more an art rather than a science like every other fortune-telling business is. I'm not sure if I want or need it. In fact, I'm quite sure I can live with what I personally know about the market and have enough reasons to believe that I'm more professional and experienced than that poor railroad telegrapher that by some twisted chance has become an idol for believers.
  • #919
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:18pm Mar 15, 2008 9:18pm
Quoting Igrok
...than that poor railroad telegrapher that by some twisted chance has become an idol for believers.

Who?
  • #920
  • Edited 10:20pm Mar 15, 2008 9:52pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting scexglobal
Who?
If I'm not mistaken, which I'm not, before his early retirement due to the health problems Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott used to work as an accountant for railroad companies. He had never been practically involved in real market trading and made all his research purely in theory and based on the historic performance of the US stock market. As far as I remember, he was sending his first market observations to some financial figures via telegraph.
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