Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Something that might aide in EW counting on the GBPUSD.

May need to watch out actual trend on the weekly chart.

In the meantime that I am not yet ready to make my EW count on the GBPUSD as I have focused on the GBPJPY..... attached charts might be worth looking into for Price turns.

EG


PS. The Trend Follwer chart on the GBPJPY m15 turned out very nice.

I switch charts between different TFs.

Some labels may not actually fit into the higher TF count. Just like the chart below. But you may be able to use it to determine impulse from corrective waves.

EG

Updating within the posts by adding updated charts instead of new posts that drives this thread up the Discussion List.

update 2 : Chart 7

Changing/Revising wave count as it looks to have a triangle (ending diagonal triangle)

202.96 is finally HIT lower than the 203.1 proposed. If this was not a hedge, I would exit my short trade and run along. to trade another day.

But...... have to be careful when to unhedge.

Reserved....

1 last wave 5 of 5 of 5.....

EG

UPDATE
Chart 1 moved back the count because of the breakout to the upside so no 5 wave move in the tringe for the ending diagonal >

Update
chart 2
has 2 alternative counts in magenta and in blue

chart 3
shows an end to an impulsive wave. to be followed by a correction

Chart 4
Target short HIT and All Shorts taken off for some profit. Looks consolidating and getting ready to go down again. If not then Daily and Weekly Pivot could be next targets

Chart #6

is the narrow black ground chart. sorry about that. charts do not seem to follow a chronological order as they are posted.

if the move down is w51 of a bigger wave 5 down then at the minimum, a retrace of 61.8% is expected.

Drawing up the fib retracement tool.... we see that 61.8% level land where there is a confluence of the Daily , Weekly Pivot and the Strong Level of Resistance on the Murrey Math Set-up.

Let see how these will play up. I am trying to restrain myself from entering any short trades yet as my Long trades are now fully unhedged.

UPDATE 1100GMT

I had to leave earlier to pick up my kid from school. I was forced to hedge my Long Trades again. But it was okay because it had already retraced quite a bit putting me overall in a profitable position.

I checked my stochastics and the wave form though before pulling the trigger. came back to -19pips on the hedge

Now we have a Bearish Harmonic pattern on the 15min chart and price seem to be finding resistance at the Daily S2 while the stochastics is already over bought at the 15min chart too.

Could be a continuation down now.....


Chart #7
Got 10 pips from that last hedge and till now no new hedge for the long trades yet. Along the long trades to recover. Not really in a hurry to enter or add to my current recovering long trades.

Its recovery is a contribution to the increased earnings which is borrowed as price went down with my other short trades.

This is where one realizes that it is not important to be in a trade always or to keep adding on to your positions. These days, I am learning to stay put and trade less but more selective with entry positions.

turning to be quite profitable. Patience and restraint are key to a successful and profitable trading.

Reserved for charts....

Price is still far from the kumo clouds on the 5 minchart. more up move expected. Although it has crossed down on the 1min chart

can one understand why certain FIB levels on my chart are ticked?

EG

UPDATE 1500GMT
Chart #4
Price has retraced by 38.2%. However this may just be the leg B of the whole correction. C is projected to go from 205.88 to as high as 207.26 for the FE 100.0 and FE 161.8 respectively.
Chart #5
from a different view
Chart #6
Trying to stay above the Kumo
Chart #7
Hedged all my Long Trades again as you can see on the chart. I am already in profit. so hedging this is fine now so I can go to sleep soundly knowing that if it goes up, net profit is same as before I went to bed. And if it goes down, my short trades will start earning again even though the Long trades will be on the drawdown side.

Good night everyone.
1548 GMT
EG

Reserved for Charts

0958 PHI 0158GMT

I have about 5hours more to fill these last 3 reserved posts for my charts.

This thread was originally intended to be a venue to discuss EW counts but since it has generated very little interest in this forum.... I find myself seeing this post often stay on the top ten of the discussion list when I post a series of charts.

It has become more of a personal journal instead of a discussion thread. So I have decided to reserve several posts at the beginning of my day here so that it stays on the 1st page list only once because of my posts unless I have to reply to another poster's query.

This message will probably be buried here without being seen by those who are not really interested to learn or discuss EW. They would not be interested to look into the past. Not realizing that charts and details will be posted to maximize attachments in each post without necessarily pumping up the number of posts I make.

So for those who see this message, you have gone back far enough to look back to previous posts here. Now you know how I will be posting my analysis.

If you see this and intend to reply, kindly do not include the message or do not quote.

EG

1056 PHI 0256 GMT 031408
I was observing GBPJPY thru another system. I am more inclined to believe now that GBPJPY will have a hgher probability of still moving down

Although that is also what another system using Andrews Pitchfork and Schiffs Median Line also indicate as price direction for GBPJPY.

A system using Trendline Breakouts also indicate further move down.

While EW Guideline for wave Extentions and Wave Equality also indicate further down move.

I remain bearish at this point.

I exited my short trade early this morning and decided to re enter again as I saw price starting to head back down before I went offline. It had encountered a minor setback while I was away yet it has almost fully recovered the drawdown by now.

Down by only 24 pips now. But will most likely be on the green shortly. There is probably a new opportunity to exit the shorts at a minimal profit and enter some long trades again or allow my old long trades to recover while I watch again.

Chart #1
shows what is most likely a wave 2 retrace of wave 1 on 5min chart. unless it goes higher than 205.41 then that would mean more move up.

1115 PHI 031408
Chart# 2
Shows probable scenarios. watch the breakout.

1224 PHI 031408
Chart# 3

Limits for scenarios in wave count

1301 PHI 031408

No charts now. But the breakout to the down side on Chart #3 worked out well. currently +57 on the hedge. Not entering any new trades yet. waiting for the right time.

expecting a bounce on Low of previous days range. @ 202.22 at most. This is most likely on a wave 3 on the 15min chart. so it can breakout further to the downside of the previous day's range toward50% breakout @ 201.39 which is around the same level as Daily S2 201.43 and the weekly S2 @ 201.44

1329 PHI 031408

UNHEDGED at 203.53. if it goes to 203.30 I will have to hedge again.

Unfortunately... I had to hedge again @ 203.25

Now I need to see better timing to unhedge . otherwise will just watch and wait or trade in minimal positions.

took 15 pip loss and removed my short trade again.
5 and 15 min stochs are turning up. so most like this is going to climb. but still wary and this is risky.
allowing the long trades to recover again before any new short trades to be made

1355 PHI 031408

Bullish harmonic patterns found from 5min to 1hr charts
This leads me to think now that the move down from 207.97 in 5 waves is just w51 and now we are goingto seethe C leg of the w52


Targets are FE 100 @ 205.53
and FE 161.8 @ 207.03

61.8% retrace is @ 206.05
78.6% @ 206.89
88% @ 207.36

1414 PHI 031408

too bad for me. I have to leave now. re entered a full hedge @ 203.86
Won't be around to watch for a better entry.
increased my profit level even though I sacrificed 15 pips earlier.

Hi EG, IMO W5 was completed at 202.96 and we are now in A wave which can retrace between 38%-50% of W5. What do you think? thank you

I'm talking about H4 timeframe

It is very possible that wave 5 of C bottomed at 202.96. We saw a 5 wave structured impulse wave which could also be described as having a w5 of smaller degree being almost equal to its w1 of the sma esmaller degree.

But let us not forget that it is also possible that even if wave 3 was already extended, wave 5 can also be extended.

we can only have a higher probability of saying that the trend has already reversed on the weekly chart if price GOES higher than 213.86. That was the level which we would have placed our wave 4 if that wave 4 was only in 3 waves and not a triangle.

Also consider that there is also a possibility that we had a triangle wave C4 on the Daily chart. That would mean we should expect a wave 2 type of retracement from here.

So there are various possibilities. What is evident is that we just saw a 5 wave impulse wave down and that we are expecting a correction or a reversal from the low of 202.96.

Next step would be to use the FIB Projection tool. The A or 1 then B or 2 then the C or 3 Extention will give you the first indication.

But if this move up somehow shows a 3 wave structured A or 1, then we know that that is an A definitely as no wave 1 is 3 wave structured. Expect a continuation of the Bear trend.

However if the 1st leg is 5 wave in structure, then watch out for the signs .

EG

Thank you EG. I'll watch carefully the movements in the next period.

Good luck

We have a descending triangle on weekly UJ chart. Triangle are usual patterns for W4 but previous wave is too short to be W3. Is it possible to be W2?

This is the chart for H1 U/J. According to my chart we are now in W2 from extended W3. EG there is something tin my chart that I couldn't fix. Time for W12 is smaller than time W14. In terms of pips counting, Wave W11 are aprox equal to W15 .

as an exercise...... this is how I would label it

however, my concern is that it does not follow the rule or guideline of alternation.

will look into it again tomorrow.

EG

Ok, thanks a lot, I'm going to label again and discuss tomorrow.

pipchaser wave 2 should not be a triangle.This is a rule of the Elliott Wave Counting.I`m speaking about the monthly analysis u posted.I'm also considering this to be a triangle,but as B of a A-B-C correction.If this scenario is right we're exactly in the E wave which is very dangerous,because it makes very offen false breaks and when we speak about monthly chart those false breaks could extend to 600-700 pips or more.

Reserved for charts

1631 PHI 031408

........

added 5th chart to show potential breakout level

1652 PHI

Chart #6
exited all short trades already and letting the long trades recover.

but ready to re enter again if it goes down to 203.52.. do not take these trades with me. if ever.... just check your wave counts. I am still experimenting on combining different methods with EW

1704 PHI
Other likely targets using other systems are

Daily Pivot @ 204.55
Weekly Pivot @ 205.90
Previous Days Hig @ 206.10
Murrey Math Strong Resistance Level @ 206.25

1846 PHI 031408
Chart # 7
I have entered new short trades having increased profit thru recovery earlier.
Entered a bit early because I had to leave again. anyway, I am back now so looking for new opportunity to enter new trade most likely for a Buy Trade.

Check out the Double Bottom @ 203.68

Reserved for Charts

1908 PHI 031408
Chart 1

Price is ranging more like a parallelchannel likened to wave B. So most likely ready to Breakout from this channel range.

Less risky to enter after the breakout.

also exercising to read stochastics in different timeframes.

1946 PHI 031408
Chart #2

have unhedge too early. but most of stochastics were overbought. bit my nails and waited.

current scenario fits aFLAT wB. so expecting a wC @ FE 100 @ 204.26 or FE 161.8 @ 204.92


Chart # 3
on the 15 min chart. Projection levels for wC end


Chart #4
Looking at the 30 min chart, it would seem that we will be facing a running FLAT corrective wave as FE projections of the internal stricture of WC would only have a maximum of 204.92 projection which on the 30 min chart is just around FE 75.00 @ approx. 205. This would not make it beyond the end of wA on the 30min chart causing it to be a running FLAT corrective wave.

However, if wC on the 5min wave becomes complex, then we can see higher levels to end wC on the 5min chart.

2026 PHI 031408
Chart #5
Shows Double TOP and Double Bottom prior to the breakout to the down side for a FLAT wave B

Yes, that's why I'm a little bit confused there, but I'm not taking trades based on weekly charts so I'll just watch development of this waves in weekly charts.

Hi EG. Keep posting. I'm reading all the post, especially those who are reserved for charts.

Good luck

chart

2047 PHI
chart #5

took that scalp. entered a bit early but scalped the pullback. was a quick one. more pips downwards. looking for a re entry for my short

although, I should have stayed on as I think this is beginning of w3 within w3.


2054 PHI
another opportunity maybe...

2.0212 means resumption of downward move

2108 PHI
chart #7
watching out for this new opportunity

2212 PHI
nearly got butchered on this re entry.
was able to recover and got out fine.
was not hedging this like gbpjpy. looks like I would need to focus on just 1 pair for scalping. was having difficulty monitoring price movement as I watch these thru various system. Priority would be GBPJPY.

Not unless I see a long term trade on GBPUSD for example

5min chart Target HIT

2217 PHI
Currently all trades are hedged with an opportunity to earn partial as it goes up while the rest of the longs will try to recover.

Overall, net situation is still in profit. and still have substantial margin to trade on a smaller scale than the hedge trades

if price goes up , then there is an opportunity to earn while if it goes down, everything is hedged and losses will be minimal due to the difference in SWAP fees between Long and Short Trades.

Even though price has gone lower than the low @ end of w5 or w51 (202.960), now at 202.86, I am still inclined to think that we will still see the actual wave C UP still

will not be adding any new trades now. leaving all trades on over the weekend.

next post will most likely be towards the end of the weekend or on Sunday.