Elliott Wave Counting with EG

GBPJPY

EG

Update on 2nd chart

while I was offline or barely had any connection to the internet.....

EG

And here are the details for my GBPJPY Price Analysis

Drafted while basically offline.

EG

This is so frustrating as I wanted to post this as I was drawing up the charts. But my platform was disconnected and it seems my internet connection even though a Broadband seems to be having problems.

But I am going to post these charts still when I get my connection back just so those who follow this thread will see the thought process in my analysis of how GBPJPY would probably workout in terms of Price projection based on the different Guidelines available for Impulse waves and Corrective waves.

You will notice that I first suggested a Zigzag wave 2.
1st I suggested a possible Zigzag wave 2 because we had a 5 wave move even if it ended with an Ending Diagonal wave 5 of smaller degree.

Then ask ,” should that not have been A or 1 then B or 2?” The answer is A and B was eliminated due to the fact that the supposed C reached more than FE 161.8. Infact, I was inclined to consider a very rare occurrence of a C = FE 261.8.

But this was already more than FE 425.0. THAT eliminated the possibility of and ABC. Therefore this is not a corrective wave or move. But an Impulse wave that potentially signals a Trend Reversal.

Potential Trend Reversal?.... Yes. That is right. It is always a potential until it plays out as such.

Now if we think that that impulse wave was wave 1, a retracement is expected.
Then we should be seeing a correction now and that would be a wave 2.
And we know that wave 2 normally is a zigzag.
So that should be the first thing to expect.
However , we also know that it can be a FLAT or an Irregular FLAT.
But rarely a triangle or is it NEVER?

If wave 2 is a Zigzag, chances are if will try to retrace from 61.8% down to 88% or even up to 100% of wave 1 and that is down to 203.66

But we will have a better idea as we watch how the legs play out.

We know that the internal structure of wave A gives us an idea
a.) on how B will potentially play out and
b.) what the whole corrective wave could possibly be

if A was a 3 wave structure Zigzag, then usually B will be a FLAT / Irregular FLAT or a more complex Zigzag to achieve some form of alternation within the corrective wave.

We also know that a Zigzag begins with a 5 wave stricture A while a FLAT or Irregular FLAT begins with an ABC.

In this case, we seem to have a 3 wave A
So overall must be a FLAT or an IRREGULAR FLAT in this wave 2 position
(But can also be a Triangle if this was in the wave 4 position)

Followed by an Irregular FLAT B.

To Project wave C,
FLAT = Generally wC = wA so FE 100.0 @ 205.87
Iregular FLAT = Generally wC = wA(1.618) or FE 161.8 @ 204.86

I am still unable to close my Long Trade for a small profit. So frustrating because I missed to Place my TP.


EGJ


PS. Finally got out even with 7 pips.

unless GBPJPY encounters a strong support at the Daily Pivot level of 206.25 which could result in a further expansion of wave B. and push forward and delay the downward move for C.

EG

Wow.... I forgot about the Triple swap on a Wednesday... That usually pushes this pair into the AIR.
I should have anticipated the move from Monday towards Wednedsday and now we have this pullback/retrace.

Would this extend towards Friday for a Potential Powerful move UP again on Monday culminating that possible wave 3 of wave 1 UP for a much bigger Wave 5 on the Daily chart?

Pivots and Ichimoku helping determine potential support to coincide with retracement and projection/extention.

Provide trigger signals to trade a potential trend coinciding with the EW count.

EG

another potential to bear in mind for GBPJPY

TIME.....

EG

Potential bounce for Y?

Entered a medium size trade to hedge my Short

EG

GBPJPY m05

Very Ideal scenario of walking the pair...... or should I say riding the waves?

Still but a potential...

EG

end of wave 4 of smaller degree attained 50% retrace level instead of 38.2

Now for the 4 then another move up till the Asian Session....

EG

GBPJPY

got to go now

EG

Good Morning Everyone.

Nice day, fine trading after a few hours of sleep.

w2 seems to be playing out fine for me.

If the wave counts on the price charts do not seem to add up to what is expected in form and size, there are other ways to verify.

And I use EW parameters for potential wave 2 and also the stochastics. Note that I also tried numbering the waves based on the Stochastics and I realized that the wave count on the chart itself did not play out that well.

But because we have other Guidelines to use, we are able to explain the new count better.

Remember Divergence in Stochastics.

Also note where Price bounced off. It was between the Weekly Pivot and the Daily S1.

And because the last low is now the Previous Days Low and price is still too near hear and just near the Daily S1, I would think that there is still a slight chance that price may still come down and even invalidate our count further.

But what would totally invalidate this is if price goes lower than 203.57

Remember that w2 is allowed to retrace w1 up to 100%.

In the meantime, I am still hedged.

When do I unhedge? hhhhmmmmm

EG


EG

GBPJPY

Harmonic Patterns on the 15min chart indicates a still Bearish Pattern.

The Andrews Pitchfork on the 30 min shows a possible further move down to the 50% Breakout Level of the Prev Day's Range down to 203.5.

Although there is a better chance of seeing Daily S2 @ 204.29 which is near the 23.6% Breakout Level.

If you are using Trend Follower's System, a potential further fanning out of the MAs could also be seen or observed.

1st potential Reversal move using Murrey Math is @ 203.91 which coincides with 38.2% of the FIB Breakout level using Spudfyre's FIB Breakout Range.

Alternative count for GBPJPY

EG

Macro Point of View for GBPJPY.

Does this support the Fundamentals?

A possible wave 52 expansion on the Daily chart possibly duping traders into thinking that a reversal of trend is in place.

Bulls may only be having a temporary feasting. But Beware as Bears are probably just taking a breather. Too kind to allow the Bulls to feast for awhile.....

Note that if this w52....... w53 could be a big one . So be ready for anything.

Looks like my hedges will be staying on for a longer time..

This is probably what is nice with trading forex compared to Equities.

EG

PS.... Trying not to get caught and trapped within the wave counts of the lower time frames.

Do not get confused with the different counts. I try to provide the different possible counts I see. It is up to you to see what you think is better or usable for your trades.

Note that trading a particular time frame could make a lot of difference in the outcome.

Do not hedge if the account is highly leveraged which I do not recommend unless you are an expert forex trader. Well... if you are an expert forex trader.... why would you even be on this thread .

So, newbies as most of you I note seem to be more classified under guests, start with a low leverage and still use good MM.

EG

hhhmmmm

.....

.....

.....

ready to unhedge and take out the short trades @ end of w53 or allow to just ride the wave up on w54 then down again for w55.

in the meantime trade very light if at all..

Remember that the longtrades are earning SWAP interest (although may not be enough to compensate for the negative SWAP ) while the short trades could start earning as price goes down.

More of the less risky trades to be made now and preferably more of the short trades as we are seeing a larger tendency of a continuing Bear Trend on GBPJPY

EG