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EURUSD

  • #5,401
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:48am Mar 12, 2008 7:48am
I am concerned that the markets have mostly factored in a 50-75bps cut for next week's USD Interest Rate Announcement, and yesterday it looked like they were taking heed to the Fed's latest move. So perhaps that was just an indicator that EU has priced in too much of a rate cut? If so, then, why would we rebound back to near all-time highs today? Also, the rebound today took twice as long as the run-up yesterday, which to me indicates continuing strength in an upward direction. I am getting more and more confused the more I type... curses.....
  • #5,402
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:00am Mar 12, 2008 8:00am
Does anybody here think that it'll make it above 5500 today?
  • #5,403
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:23am Mar 12, 2008 8:23am
Quoting Edforex
Does anybody here think that it'll make it above 5500 today?

Looks like there is some decent resistance at that level, but if we push through I could see it heading towards 56 - 565...
  • #5,404
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:24am Mar 12, 2008 8:24am
Quoting PhorPhunn
I am concerned that the markets have mostly factored in a 50-75bps cut for next week's USD Interest Rate Announcement, and yesterday it looked like they were taking heed to the Fed's latest move. So perhaps that was just an indicator that EU has priced in too much of a rate cut? If so, then, why would we rebound back to near all-time highs today? Also, the rebound today took twice as long as the run-up yesterday, which to me indicates continuing strength in an upward direction. I am getting more and more confused the more I type... curses.....
well as were expecting 0.75% aggressive rate cut in USA but because of Fed 200Billion injection gave little greenback to USD yesterday,now we are expecting only 0.5% cut rate...
Why EU moved up... it has two reasons
(1) Earlier ECB Member Weber hinted in a statement that the ECB was not in a position to lower interest rates due to the rising German inflation fears.
(2) Industrial Production m/m was good enough to boost EU up side.
there are many others..
Okay going outside for little break.
brb
  • #5,405
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:36am Mar 12, 2008 8:36am
anybody think oil inventorys will effect the market this week as much as it did last week?
  • #5,406
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:47am Mar 12, 2008 8:47am
At some point commodities have to correct, it's a bubble to the max, fueled by speculation and financial gaming. At some point people who actually NEED the resources they are buying on the futures markets to make their products are going to stop paying rediculous prices, but say your are a consumer of oil, like an airline, you buy long contracts to hedge your fuel costs, if those contracts soar you are making money without transporting a single passenger. It's great, so why rock the boat? Eventually those hedged consumers of the worlds commodities, will run out of hedge, it is then we will see a correction, I estimate.
  • #5,407
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:14am Mar 12, 2008 9:14am
Massive size on the offer as Euro first hit 1.55 and now as it tries again there is a lot of size defending that level.

I'm short 2 lots at 1.5489.
  • #5,408
  • Mar 12, 2008 10:56am Mar 12, 2008 10:56am
this pair has become more violent then jpy carries...
its just money
  • #5,409
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:08am Mar 12, 2008 11:08am
Quoting de123
this pair has become more violent then jpy carries...
LOL yeah it's getting a bit erratic here. Trichet is still not saying anything definite - he keeps hitting the ball back into the US court but watch how the euro hangs on his every word.

I scratched my 2 lot at 1.5489 and sold it back up at 1.5500 dead. Sitting on this now to see if it's the top. If not I will scratch that and sell it higher.

This will come off hard at some point. Every bull market does and as long as you keep your losses very small when you are wrong there is going to be good money to be made.
  • #5,410
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:15am Mar 12, 2008 11:15am
Quoting de123
this pair has become more violent then jpy carries...
LOL

so true, used to be stable pair...
  • #5,411
  • Edited 1:16pm Mar 12, 2008 11:30am | Edited 1:16pm
I went long 3 lots yesterday from 1.53290 to 1.54700 then sold them and 3 more lots at 1.54700.

I am leaving the short position open until it comes back down for a profit.

Update:- I decided to close out my short position at 1.55230, not worth taking away from any further profits right now.
  • #5,412
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:39am Mar 12, 2008 11:39am
I went short @5507 with a 20pip SL.....Pure gamble on this trade
  • #5,413
  • Mar 12, 2008 12:16pm Mar 12, 2008 12:16pm
Funny to me that the saudis are saying they believe dollar is oversold when the overall sentiment clearly points in another direction.

Between the lines I read this as "please folks, don't push it too much further, or we have to think aloud about removing our peg".
  • #5,414
  • Mar 12, 2008 12:27pm Mar 12, 2008 12:27pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
At some point commodities have to correct, it's a bubble to the max, fueled by speculation and financial gaming. At some point people who actually NEED the resources they are buying on the futures markets to make their products are going to stop paying rediculous prices, but say your are a consumer of oil, like an airline, you buy long contracts to hedge your fuel costs, if those contracts soar you are making money without transporting a single passenger. It's great, so why rock the boat? Eventually those hedged consumers of the worlds commodities, will run out of hedge, it is then we will see a correction, I estimate.
wow dude thats a remarkable analysis. i was thinking to myself about these high prices that are caused by traders but in the end what will happen to the physical stuff when the actual demand becomes less and less.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #5,415
  • Mar 12, 2008 1:20pm Mar 12, 2008 1:20pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
At some point commodities have to correct, it's a bubble to the max, fueled by speculation and financial gaming. At some point people who actually NEED the resources they are buying on the futures markets to make their products are going to stop paying rediculous prices, but say your are a consumer of oil, like an airline, you buy long contracts to hedge your fuel costs, if those contracts soar you are making money without transporting a single passenger. It's great, so why rock the boat? Eventually those hedged consumers of the worlds commodities, will run out of hedge, it is then we will see a correction, I estimate.
THE HEART OF WORLD INFLATION IS CALLED USA FEDERAL RESERVE.

IS PRINTING MONEY LIKE CRAZY THEN SEND THEM TO THE BANKS.
THEY OF COURSE GET RID OF THOSE FREE DOLLARS AS FAST AS THEY CAN AND INVEST IN COMMODITIES, SAME CHINA, SAME MANY OTHER COUNTRIES WHO PLAN THE FUTURE.

WHAT HAS THE WORLD DONE TO DESERVE THIS IRRESPONSABLE USA ACTIONS.
  • #5,416
  • Edited 2:31pm Mar 12, 2008 1:38pm | Edited 2:31pm
Quoting acidguy
THE HEART OF WORLD INFLATION IS CALLED USA FEDERAL RESERVE.

IS PRINTING MONEY LIKE CRAZY THEN SEND THEM TO THE BANKS.
THEY OF COURSE GET RID OF THOSE FREE DOLLARS AS FAST AS THEY CAN AND INVEST IN COMMODITIES, SAME CHINA, SAME MANY OTHER COUNTRIES WHO PLAN THE FUTURE.

WHAT HAS THE WORLD DONE TO DESERVE THIS IRRESPONSABLE USA ACTIONS.
A lot of that is true, but the US is not alone in this. Japan was/is very happy to keep her yen high against the dollar and lend to the US banks at 0% to keep the US buying their cheap crap, while the US produces almost nothing, and imports cheap labor, and offshores productive jobs.

Its not the people of the USA, it corrupt globalists, profiting off all the worlds people, while hiding their billions in offshore tax havens.

This is a really good "doomsday" blog:

http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/

I just can't see how the USD will make it out alive.

Amero here we come.
  • #5,417
  • Mar 12, 2008 3:08pm Mar 12, 2008 3:08pm
Well I didn't expect anything today so I missed this move.

Who knows now next big mark is 1.6000
  • #5,418
  • Mar 12, 2008 3:15pm Mar 12, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Well I didn't expect anything today so I missed this move.

Who knows now next big mark is 1.6000
Quoting Hammad
Okay last week.
We achived our both targets step by step.
1st 1.5320
2nd 1.5465 almost achived..
Now no more plans for long.. This pairs is Highly in overbought area. need some correction now.
Next Physco target is 1.56...
I am aside and watching only..
I took 70 pips in london session.. and watching only this pair now.. as i said 1.56 is next Physco so its on way.. but not trading it becuase can reverse any time, don't wana pick top.. I am woundring maybe MERRILL forcast become true (1.57 by the end of march). Who knows!!!!
Fed injection isn't helping Dow again negative.
  • #5,419
  • Mar 12, 2008 4:05pm Mar 12, 2008 4:05pm
Been watching EURUSD, Trading EURAUD, doing well this week. Like a whole new world.

Not sure what the dollar is going to do next, I just need to figure in either a case of depreciation which pair will fair worse the EURUSD or the EURAUD, and in the case of appreciation which will do better.

When commodities roll over, who will sag more EUR or AUD? The evidence is surprising - seems the EUR is more effected by Oil than AUD.
  • #5,420
  • Mar 12, 2008 4:19pm Mar 12, 2008 4:19pm
Quoting Hammad
Fed injection isn't helping Dow again negative.
of course it isn't helping. bunch o' scared nut-jobs running around with their heads cut off.

gonna be an ugly year for the dollar, 2008.

saudis (sorry I mean UAE, whatever...) looking at de-pegging again, german industrial output nice despite strong EUR, what else do you need? I'm out now that it's almost 1.56 (who'd'a thunk?) for the time being, waiting for a retrace.

how low will it go before the big guns reload their ammo to notch it waaay close to 1.60?

to be honest, I would not have thought it would breach this fast and this strongly. but look at inflation problems abound... is this ever gonna end? people talk about oil bubble etc driving up inflation everywhere...forcing these "weak" currencies to become "strong" ones.

isn't the theory that the dollar is held in esteem because of the US gold holdings and the OPEC-business being handled in dollars mostly?

as long as no one in the US cares about lowering the external deficit via a weak dollar, and as long as the commercial credit market isn't showing signs of loosening-up, I don't see why the EUR couldn't go much further.
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