Elliott Wave Counting with EG

w5 of wC?

hi el grande, you're a doing very good job here I'm a novice in EW and my learning is easier with your thread. Thank you.
Keep going

Thank you pipchaser. I hope this really helps you.


Price is above Daily pivot of 204.79
Daily R1 is @ 206.10
Previous Days High (based on Previous days Hi and Lo Range ) Is @ 205.68

I would watch price if it successfully breaksout of this range. For me, there is a high probability of this happening as price is already above daily pivot.
Weekly Pivot though is @ 207.71

Price though looks like it might still retest the pivot level where a median line also exists. then ..if it does not continue downwards...

Chances are .... Price may go up but encounter a strong resistance on the weekly pivot level of 207.71

TP levels
205.68
206.44
206.68
206.92

These are mere notes that you may want to observe on your charts together with your technical indicators. I have to go out now and will be back US session.

if you see the same target levels, let us know.

EG

my daily pivot is at 204.81 and my targets are Fibo levels:

205.84 23.6

207.30 38.2

208.49 50

I will closely watch for reversal patterns in those areas.

Gbp/Usd
Hmmm ............. ?

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Hello Marketwavez.
i chaged your counting a little, it looks more clear and undrestanding now.
i still believe that GBP/USD will go higher in this week, and that supports around 1,700 will hold. Anyway, i hope you dont mind, that i changed your picture.

Here we are wave (4) finally completed last night.
Wave (5) developping !

Looking good for you pipchaser....

Yesterday before I left, I had placed 2 small equal Long trades @ 205.18
However, I placed a Stop Loss on 1 (@204.60 ) which was a 38.2% retrace from the previous day's high while I let the other one loose with out an SL.

When I came back around US session, I saw the SL triggered while the other was in profit. I exited the one with profit without further analyzing it for Net loss of 40 pips on those 2 trades. I did not have much energy left to stay up and watch my trades after a long drive around the city for nearly 6 hours.

Now, it looks like we were actually on the correct direction.

The labels on the chart should be self explanatory aside from the notes. However, if you have questions..... just ask.

EG

GBPJPY m30 details

sorry ... this did not go thru earlier.

EG

Hi el,

I took a look on daily charts for geppy and I think that it just completed W1, now we are in W2 but I have no clue about what kind of correction can be. I'm waiting for first wave of W2 retracement to have an opinion. What do you think?

Hi Money!!! Frankly speaking I am not sure with 1-2-3 in wave C, because we have not extened wave on the Markets count you changed.

But I must admit that I agree both with you guys, Marketwavez and Money, that we are in wave C

Thanks pipcatcher for bringing this up. I do not mean to shoot down your thoughts on this. However, I will just provide some points I thought you might want to consider (which I considered before I set aside the same count you just made.

1. if you look at the 1st chart on the series above this post, you will notice also that the stochastics I had on the chart somehow formed a triangle.

2. Aside from that, I noticed that the legs of that potential triangle were smaller than the one to their left. This would have been 2nd pt to qualify it as a triangle

However, there was also an alternative count. I looked around for a possible reason to sdispute the triangle. And the only one I found was the form of this triangle. It would look more like a Barrier triangle with the inverted side.

from what I can deduce with the barrier triangle format, the breakout usually occurs on the flat side and not the slanted side. This can not be a symmetrical triangle for me as it has one side less angled to the apex than the other.

Next is I looked at the Time Component. Measuring how much time was consumed for wave 2 compared to this proposed wave 4. I remembed somebody telling me before that w4 is normally equal to wave 2 interms of time. I have not come across this in the books yet as far as I can remember.

If I place wave 4 where you placed yours, then w4 would have taken longer than wave 2. But it could be a reason to match the wave breakdown with your MACD. I can still be wrong with my count.

Next I checked was the technical indicators.

If price is indeed in wave 2 now, then this would have to climb towards
61.8 208.26
78.6 209.56
88.0 219.29

But Monthly Pivot is @ 208.67
Weekly Pivot @ 208.58

If price goes higher than this substantially, then Price will already have reversed and this cannot be wave 2 then. (Just my thought)

Based on the Previous day's Range and FIB Breakout, I would consider price going higher than the monthly and weekly Pivot towards Maximum of 209.34 which is Daily R2 and near the 61.8% FIB Breakout.

But this is even a bit contradictory to the usual retracement done by wave 4 which should be from 38.2 - 50% of wave 3. So I would be inclined towards 208.26 which is 61.8% of wave 3

If this is really wave 4 and it retraces more than 61.8%, based on the Guideline, next to watch is potential wave 5 failure (Truncated)

Your asking me this has made me go over that time guideline for wave 4. Based on a higher timeframe, wave 4 must end around 030908 (magenta vertical line on the chart). but the internal structure for the c4 is nearly complete.

Now, I am inclined to watcch this as a potential complex sideways expansion as the WXYXxZ instead of the ABC or WXY due to this time factor.

So these are the thoughts that I base my trading decisions on.

Price going up to finish c5 then down for Xx towards 206.25 to 205.40 and bouncing from there to finish Z of w534 till 030908.

This is just laying a map for this price. But this can still change. What I do is set this up then monitor and see if price does work as was planned.

In the event that Price movement deviates, then a new map is drawn whenever possible.

EG

Thank you el. Very nice analysis . If I understood your analysis and charts correctly, we are stiil in W4 on daily charts which is a complex correction. This W4 should be completed in time terms around 03092008. You also are expecting as W5 to be truncated. Have I understood correctly?

Good luck

Sorry to have confused you there pipchaser. I was ranting on without warning which timeframe I was talking about.

Daily - finished with wave 4.(1st chart) Time wise, w4 = w2. If wave 4 on daily is finished, then we are now on wave 5 down on daily

H4 - 2nd chart, Price also finished with w51,and w52 and w53 of the wave 5 on Daily.
******This is where I myself got lost.... should have been
w51,and w52 then now developing to finish w53 of the wave 5 on Daily.
W53 is not yet finished. Parts of w53 which are finished are w531, w532 and w533. It is the w534 which I am referring to as expected to fish till030908


It is the wave 4 inside wave 5 or what I refer to as w54 which I think is still in development and expanding sideways to finish on 030908

Afterwhich a final wave 5 (w55 ) down is expected.

However, I am looking at 033108 as a major turning point or reversal for GBPJPY to end wave C of the big corrective wave 4 on the Daily chart then start its ascent and probably resume its carry trade position even for a few months. That is about 21-22 days for w55 to develop.

Daily Chart
wC1 = 19 days
wC2 = 16 days
wC3 = 34 days
wC4 = 19 days
wC5 = ???


4 hour chart
w531 = 17 bars
w532 = 35 bars
w533 = 21 bars
w534 = currently 18 expected to last for 35 bars by 030908
w535 = ???


But note that this is just end of the wave 3 inside the wave 5

To be followed by the main wave 54 then down to wave 55 to end the Big wave C .

Understood . I thought that W5 on daily was over but you are right it's still on. I have a lot to learn about EW but practice, practice, practice. This is the way.

thank you el

I apologize and must correct myself here:

H4 - 2nd chart, Price also finished with w51,and w52 and w53 of the wave 5 on Daily.
******This is where I myself got lost.... should have been
w51,and w52 then now developing to finish w53 of the wave 5 on Daily.
W53 is not yet finished. Parts of w53 which are finished are w531, w532 and w533. It is the w534 which I am referring to as expected to finish till030908

EG

Hello guys. I am back after long time in this threat. I was watching correction in USD/JPY for a long time now, and maybe i figured out how could it be.

I believe that we are in big wave IV, where should JPY break down again in few days. First move in this correction was expanded diagonal triangle in wave a, then zigzag in wave b, with triangle in subwave b and ending diagonal in subwave c. After that price continue to the last wave c of IV with another expanding diagonal triangle. So after this breakout i will wait on the 61,8% retricement where i will go short with 1/3 of the position, with stops above 104,20. If my sell 1 wont be achieved i will go short after breakout the lower trend line! grega

Welcome Back ......
Look forward to seeing more of your charts

Gbp/Usd

UPDATE -Result

Here is how the trade set-up turned out .....
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Gbp/Usd
I think you may be right about a rally .............
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Here is another look at what may be occurring

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