Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Gbp/Usd
What a week the Bulls we are having huh ,
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-Here is a look at where it all started to unfold
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Going and still kept Going up ....Wow!......

hmmmm.....

The triangle on the 5min chart may have been invalidated. But a FLAT corrective wave can now bee seen on the 15 min chart.

Patience may just pay off as the hedge is turning positive for my short trade again.

Next week will see me do the following:

1. Exit the short trade hedge when there is a possibility of a 20 or more pips counter trend and re-entering the short trade again when it gets back to the main trend which is down.

2. Or I can just leave the hedge alone and scale down to 10% of my usual trade value for additional trades I would make while nursing the hedge.

EG

Forgive me as I am still learning.

What is your TP for the current wave?

I went long when we bounced off of 206 but am still assesing the long term direction of this puppy.

B

Here is putting the the outlook for GBPJPY in a very simplistic presentation.

These are very general ideas based on what I see on my charts and what my wave counts and guidelines I use are telling me.

Due to this pair's volatile nature, keeping a close watch on your trades is best advised. Large swings result in large drawdowns. Scalping this pair requires a high degree of experience, a broker with as little spread as possible for this pair and a selection of proper trading period.

Short -Term to Medium Term trading of this pair can be very risky yet very and largely rewarding. However, landing on the other side of the trade will definitely require a deep pocket for the possible drawdowns.

Large drawdowns in monetary terms can be BEST faced if you apply good money management like trading using very low margins. Otherwise, your trading pocket must be really DEEP.

Anyway, details of the forecast are on the chart. If you have questions , just post it here and I will try to get back to you as soon as I can.

EG

PS.

Note that I have existing Long Trades from the 213.30 level. That one was big and I preferred to hedge that rather than take the already large drawdown it incurred.

But hedging it and trying to maximize potential of this hedge requires doing it on a higher timeframe and not the scalps. I do not recommend scalping the hedge. Unless.... you are very sure of where the market turns ( which many of us are actually unsure, like I am).

But I am taking that risk and I will be responsible for my trades. For newbies.... it is still best advised to DEMO Trade if you like this pair. But better to start with EURUSD or GBPUSD specially if you use Elliott Wave Analysis.

Price Targets:

SQ9 (Price and Time)- 201.94 2008.03.14 ; 2008.03.24 ; 2008.04.04 ; 2008.04.17 ; 2008.06.08
EWT (Weekly ABC) - 189.77 to 178.6
GuidelineFor FIB Impulse Extention - 198.40 to 190.86
Andrew's Pitchfork and Median Line Analysis - 194.47
EWT Guideline of Wave Equality - 193.18
Median Line Resistance formed from 219.83 ( 2008.01.18 ) to 214.27 ( 2008.03.14 )
Harmonic Pattern on the weekly chart is raring to shoot up (Bullish)

Now time to wait , watch and find out if above all have taken the correct trade position of a down trend and which one comes closest tothe actual temporary bottom or reversal.

Or would they all be short of the actual price target?

On the Time factor though, it would seem that wave 4 on the Weekly/Daily chart which started from the high of 251.07 seems to have more room for expansion which means that Price may find a temporary bottom for this large sideways correction with the end of the Big Wave C blue.

Wave 2 of same degree as this wave 4 was in 46 weeks. So we or I expect wave 4 to be at least 46 weeks too. Squaring Time would indicate 47 weeks as the closest target @ 2008.06.08

This would include the wave B and C of higher degree than the Blue ABC I have on the leg A.

A wave B of a higher degree will develop. Since the Big wave A which is supposed to end soon is in 3 wave structure, then wave B of higher degree could develop into a FLAT or IRREGULAR FLAT or a TRIANGLE, going UP.

If it becomes a FLAT, then we would see this pair going UP towards the previous high of 251.07.

An IRREGULAR FLAT would see values higher than 251.07 but a TRIANGLE would see price going up by 50-61.8% retarce of this big wave A.

Then another Plunge, This time likely much quicker, steeper and lower.

Let's brace ourselves and ride this out. As traders, we will have the opportunity to make profit.

***** This is a story I would like to tell myself in the midst of everything that is happening in the world economy. I wonder how close this can be to reality.

EG 0901PHI 030108

Looking at the lower TF of GBPJPY

EG

5min chart shows potential bearish continuation

EG

GBPJPY Update

Wave count adjusted but remain Bearish

1st target for wave end of smal w1 before a potential retrace of 50-61.8% UP.

EG

GBPJPY Regular or Irregular FLAT.

5min
Tenkan-sen and Kijun sen have crossed each other within the Kumo
Price has crossed the Kumo
But could possibly face some resistance based on the Chikou Span
Chikou span crossed price but inside the kumo.

overall weak to neutral signal to go long

15min
overall price move going up may face resistance from a thick Kumo on the 15min chart

thus potentially completing the wave 4 on my EW count of a w1 of highere degree.

EG

Target achieved

EG

GBPJPY Update.

EG

Possible further retracement for GBPJPY

I would say NEXT Target is 206.73

Long @ 204.77

While I still hold both Long and short trades (HEDGE), Short trades will have to be unloaded at the end of this wave 3.

In the meantime, smaller trade units will be made to take advantage of this opportunity.

EG

EG

UPDATE

Possible counts

Points to consider.


EG

Alternative view of GBPJPY

EG

GBPJPY still has not broken out of the Previous days Price Range with the Low @ 203.47 with its current low of 203.66

Daily Support 1 @ 203.80
Weekly Support 1 @ 203.68

This could still be the wave B of the wave 54


With the 1st TP now @ 206.25 Murrey Math Strong Resistance Level which is near the 23.6% retrace. Price may just go thru the Daily Pivot @ 204.79

FE 100.00 is @ 205.98

Have already UNHEDGED my Long trade. Closed my short trade for the bigger chunk. But hedged the smaller trade.

Time to get some rest now.

EG

Linear Regression Channel and Channel Tool on the GBPJPY

EG

more charts

GBPJPY