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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,141
  • Mar 2, 2008 4:37pm Mar 2, 2008 4:37pm
Quoting DutchTrader
AJ to 94.82, AU to 9126
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #2,142
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:04am Mar 3, 2008 4:04am
I see that consensus is calling for another interest rate raise by RBA today. Anyone care to weigh in on how likely this is to happen, especially given the hike a month ago and the bank's history of gradual changes?
  • #2,143
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:15pm Mar 3, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting Subdude
I see that consensus is calling for another interest rate raise by RBA today. Anyone care to weigh in on how likely this is to happen, especially given the hike a month ago and the bank's history of gradual changes?
I would say it's on the cards 90% with .25 already priced into the market. I would say the only variable left could be .25 or .50 which is highly unlikely. I would also keep in mind that RBA has not done a back to back rate change for some time so set your stops in case. You would imagine that there will be some buying prior to retails sales and volatility around time of both decisions.
  • #2,144
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:56pm Mar 3, 2008 4:56pm
Either way, I would like to see AUD exceed 0.95 before going short.. heavy
  • #2,145
  • Mar 3, 2008 7:38pm Mar 3, 2008 7:38pm
any thoughts where AUDUSD is going till and after interest rate announcement
  • #2,146
  • Mar 3, 2008 7:54pm Mar 3, 2008 7:54pm
Can't really predict that. But got to see how the RBA announces the statement. I think aussie fate still unclear but if a wave of carry unwinding begins it will sell off.
  • #2,147
  • Mar 3, 2008 11:07pm Mar 3, 2008 11:07pm
Wow, this is a pretty vicious drop - talk about the statement having much more effect than the decision itself... it seems Aussie might come back above 0.93 soon though - the higher rate alone should make it more attractive for sustained carry trade. It's doubtful the bank will be willing to reverse their decision any time soon, even if they're done raising the rate for some time.
  • #2,148
  • Mar 3, 2008 11:48pm Mar 3, 2008 11:48pm
An increase in interest rate to 7.25% doesn't lift up audusd?

isn't that strange?
  • #2,149
  • Mar 3, 2008 11:53pm Mar 3, 2008 11:53pm
Quoting jayzee
An increase in interest rate to 7.25% doesn't lift up audusd?

isn't that strange?
that's what i thought. The trend says go up to 0.9500 before retrace big-time.

let's see.
  • #2,150
  • Mar 4, 2008 12:27am Mar 4, 2008 12:27am
The increase in australian dollar interest rates was nothing but fully predicted by all market players. It is very much priced in. Remember, retail sales news came in weaker aiding in the drop.

However, AUDUSD now looks to be topping very much. Why?
There could be waves of carry trade unwinding. and AUDUSD can't rally in such environments. That's factor number one.

Factor numbers two, US dollar is extremely oversold, so its more vulnerable to a corrective rally (AUDUSD down).

My strategy on AUDUSD will be selling into rallies from now on.

Good luck
  • #2,151
  • Mar 4, 2008 2:45am Mar 4, 2008 2:45am
I guess I was right about 0.93 - now let's see if it can recover all the way up to 0.9380... looks like it might just have enough momentum to do so before NY open.
  • #2,152
  • Mar 4, 2008 7:21am Mar 4, 2008 7:21am
Quoting CounterTrend
The increase in australian dollar interest rates was nothing but fully predicted by all market players. It is very much priced in. Remember, retail sales news came in weaker aiding in the drop.

However, AUDUSD now looks to be topping very much. Why?
There could be waves of carry trade unwinding. and AUDUSD can't rally in such environments. That's factor number one.

Factor numbers two, US dollar is extremely oversold, so its more vulnerable to a corrective rally (AUDUSD down).

My strategy on AUDUSD will be selling into rallies from now on.

Good luck
Yes the AUD will react harshly to downside commodity data, and I am long EUR vs AUD currently.
  • #2,153
  • Mar 4, 2008 7:27am Mar 4, 2008 7:27am
Very strong trade is that EUR versus AUD. Technically and fundamentally great positioning.
  • #2,154
  • Mar 4, 2008 3:47pm Mar 4, 2008 3:47pm
If a country intervenes and prints out loads of money, are they importing inflation?
  • #2,155
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:37pm Mar 8, 2008 4:37pm
AU 4hr.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 19 KB
Just Trade It
  • #2,156
  • Mar 10, 2008 9:44am Mar 10, 2008 9:44am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
AU 4hr.
Au broke out to the short side. Following A.J
Just Trade It
  • #2,157
  • Mar 10, 2008 10:01am Mar 10, 2008 10:01am
I seriously need to consider doing the opposite. These moves make no sense to me
  • #2,158
  • Mar 10, 2008 10:18am Mar 10, 2008 10:18am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
These moves make no sense to me
Fundamentally they do. The confidence of the Australian consumer is slowing being deflated with higher interest rates, a thumping of the ASX in the past couple of weeks, and worrying inflation.

There was a public holiday for some States, maybe that's the reason
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #2,159
  • Mar 10, 2008 10:23am Mar 10, 2008 10:23am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I seriously need to consider doing the opposite. These moves make no sense to me
why not??
I believe . . .
  • #2,160
  • Mar 10, 2008 10:32am Mar 10, 2008 10:32am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I seriously need to consider doing the opposite. These moves make no sense to me
Ticker get your clicker ready because the Aussie will start to be a buy around 9120 or so
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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