Elliott Wave Counting with EG

extended wave 3.

Missed an earlier opportunity to scalp that wave 5 of 3 instead of waiting till 209.

I got a false signal based on my Andrews Pitchfork earlier but would have still profitted from my shorts earlier if I kept watch.

Now wave 4 Purple at 38.2% lands on 211.27. That could be the leg A of a FLAT wave. Leg B may be in development now. so need to watch the wave C up to finish the FLAT wave 4.

That could land us back to
211.27 minimum
211.70 likely
212.07

EG

PS. I like to spice up my charts with colors. helps break the monotony of all those lines.

after reviewing the charts again.

I realized that I missed out on some details.

1. wave 2 was not a zigzag but a corrective flat.
2. wave 3 was not extended
3. and that what I initially labelled as wave 2 of 3 was actually a wave 4 as it did not overlap with the original wave 1.
4. meaning wave 5 is now the extended wave.

the 2nd chart helped to verify that thinking..

EG

exited my shorts there for some profit.

will re enter shorts incase it drops lower than previous low @ 210.15 specifically below 138.2% of A for an irregular wave 2 @ 209.74

if it goes lower than that then irregular flat is off the table. instead wave 3 is underway and wave 2 just made barely 38.2% retrace of wave 1 which is quite unlikely. 38.2% has been acceptable . but lower than 38.2% seems unlikely.

more reason to believe this is still going up. otherwise. new shorts at 209.70 and cover for the current long trades.

EG

just exited a long I placed as price touched the previous low @ 210.14

entered @ 210.27 and exited @ 210.69. nice 42 pips

still have my old longs so will let that run where ever price will take us from here on.

EG

Ps.
still have my sell stop order @ 209.70 waiting to be triggered

UPDATE
Sell Stop Order Triggered 1237 PHI @ 209.70 just below 209.74 which is 132.8% of suggested leg A. I still have doubts on this because this is gbpjpy. 150% of leg A would convince me more that that was not a corrective wave of the degree I was looking at. But a corrective wave of lower degree.

GBPJPY short Targets:

209.38 is a major support level. Murrey math
209.25 50% fib breakout range
208.89 61.8% fib break out range
208.84 Daily Support 3

EG

GBPJPY
1. hits major support @ 209.38 having reached 209.17 which is now previous days lowest

2. 209.17 is Daily support 1


If price pierces thru 209.17, chances of this continuing down will be much better. order of priority is as follows:

208.67 23.6% Breakout also support 2 Daily
208.37 38.2%
208.12 50%
207.87 61.8% also Daily Support 3
207.57 76.4%

exit depends on your risk appetite

EG

TP Triggered at:

208.70
208.40

all short trades off the table.

holding my Long trades now......

EG

Hedged all my long trades @ 208.46

I should have hedged all my long trades when it broke 208.77 and pulled back to 208.83

I have to remind myself that that this is wave 3 even if it is inside a wave 5 but still a part of the bigger wave 3 green.

Therefore, I am now leaving all my trades alone and allow the Short trades to mature or TP at

FE 161.8 200.04or
FE 200.0 198

I am not up for scalping this wave 3 anymore. will only pull out my short trades if I see a major reversal.

EG

Pullback is where re-entry for shorts should have been taken as it takes out wave 1 end.

One may argue , " what about the possibility of an irregular FLAT"?

well, for me if you look at the size of wave 2, it would already be out of proportion considering the size of wave 1.

so, to me going lower than end of wave 1 confirms we are in wave 3 for GBPJPY.

EG

I got back a litlle earlier than expected . So I have a bit more time to work on GBPJPY now.

checking the 5min chart, it would seem that price is In a wave 4 turq before finishing off wave 5 magenta to finish the bigger wave 1.

I would look for wave 1 end to be around 207.40 if by Guideline of wave extention is used where w1 = w5 if wave 3 is extended.

from the end of wave 1 or should I say w31 blue, retracements could land on any of the following:

23.6% @ 208.84
38.2% @ 209.72
50.0% @ 210.44
61.8% @ 211.16

Traing long now for this retrace ia not advisable.
I would rather use it to add to my short orders preferably a small percentage when it hits 210.44

I just might exit my long trades when it reaches that area. But that depends on what I see on my charts again.

I would really just want to ride this pair down now.

EG

GBPJPY

EG

GBPJPY

I thought we had a double three off that low at 1 9335
but, we may be looking at wave (4) of C or beginnings of (i) of (5)of C.
So new high(s) still to come.....

Daily chart for me would indicate :

1. a wC5 of a wave 2 UP FE 100.0 @ 1.9979 or FE 161.8 @ 2.0360 or
2. w2 finished with just 38.2% retrace of w1 @ 1.9970 or
3. where you see purple 35 could be end of wave Y and the move to A5 is actually w1 then w2 down to Bzz and w3 going for FE 161.8 @ 2.0360

EG

Gbp/Jpy. looks like we are in the 3 wave

Buy the way Eur/Jpy turned around as it was supposed.
Good luck

Looks like next possible suppport is at 200.0 or should I say ,

177.83 - 189.96 for the end of wave 3 down?


Now we need to walk away from the computer and set those TPs at 177.

Make sure all those accounts with current Long Trades are able to withstand this huge drawdown.

Technically wave C Pink can only be till 197.85 at FE 161.8

TThat is on the Daily chart. But based on FIB Extention Projection and internal structure of wave 3 green, price may go down to as low as 189.96 down to 177.83 before a possible medium term reversal is seen.

Call it radical, but that is what my charts are telling me now. Anyway, I still have my long trades and have fully hedged them .

Now time for me to sit back, watch and maybe do something else for now.

EG

GBPJPY

EG

GBPJPY Triangle wave 4

exited my short hedge earlier and getting ready to hedge again.

EG

Looks like the triangle wave 4 worked out.

But that is further validated if it breaks below the point 0 of the triangle.

That would validate a wave 5 in progress

EG