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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,101
  • Feb 28, 2008 3:41pm Feb 28, 2008 3:41pm
Be nice if it's a case of stairs up/elevator down.

Edit: I find it rather surprising how large Australia's deficit is with all their exports and relatively smallish economy.
  • #2,102
  • Feb 28, 2008 3:58pm Feb 28, 2008 3:58pm
Hopefully you do not misunderstand me, I was not being sarcastic.
  • #2,103
  • Feb 28, 2008 4:15pm Feb 28, 2008 4:15pm
Closed the short + a few for rollover. Euro short working better atm.
  • #2,104
  • Feb 28, 2008 4:15pm Feb 28, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting CounterTrend
Hopefully you do not misunderstand me, I was not being sarcastic.
What?
  • #2,105
  • Feb 28, 2008 4:20pm Feb 28, 2008 4:20pm
Never mind, I thought you told me to be nice cause you think I am being sarcastic.. hehe, never mind
  • #2,106
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:22pm Feb 28, 2008 5:22pm
Short from 0.9483. AIG just posted a huge writedown, this should help the USD on new credit concerns, as well as the inevitable sharp drop in the Dow tomorrow. Cable looking good for shorting into UK news tonight, too.
  • #2,107
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:47pm Feb 28, 2008 5:47pm
Wow, maybe this is the big credit crunch? Then usdjpy is heading to 100 and all pairs should drop hard. But wait, not too soon, euro still has room to grow after that. Perhaps, a brief dolllar rally can do the good.
  • #2,108
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:14pm Feb 28, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting CounterTrend
Wow, maybe this is the big credit crunch? Then usdjpy is heading to 100 and all pairs should drop hard. But wait, not too soon, euro still has room to grow after that. Perhaps, a brief dolllar rally can do the good.
In case you've been away, credit issues have been plaguing the markets since last August, and this is just another inning in the game. I hope it holds through tomorrow - I've lost some serious coin on the european currencies rally, and now need to make up for those losses.
  • #2,109
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:48pm Feb 28, 2008 6:48pm
AJ to 98.09
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,110
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:07pm Feb 28, 2008 11:07pm
Quoting CounterTrend
Wow, maybe this is the big credit crunch? Then usdjpy is heading to 100 and all pairs should drop hard. But wait, not too soon, euro still has room to grow after that. Perhaps, a brief dolllar rally can do the good.
I'm asking myself "Why in the world do you keep thinking tomorrow will be a typical Friday reversal day??"

A. Behavorial analysis = When the majority of "traders" finally get it in their head that selling USD is the key to easy pips is when the market punishes yet again.

B. Most pairs have very healthy weekly ranges already. Not to say that extreme levels can't push well past these...

C. Major pairs have tested some key levels 1.5250 is fibo xtnsion on euro
1.9970 is double top on gbp.usd
.9460/.9500 on aussie (depending on a spike) is 100% extension of 8510 - 9100 (the first move after the emergency Fed meeting)

Thoughts?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #2,111
  • Feb 29, 2008 12:07am Feb 29, 2008 12:07am
Quoting TexasforEX
I'm asking myself "Why in the world do you keep thinking tomorrow will be a typical Friday reversal day??"
There is nothing typical about tomorrow's correction (if it indeed does happen). Please read this article to get an idea for what's taking place here:

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage...20081933470627


AIG and RBS are pretty major players in financial world. The writedowns they announced are no chump change either. This obviously hints at the possibility Bernanke was correct when he said about further potential losses by the banks. What's different about this situation from August is this:

- everybody has now seen the actual numbers on the earnings statements; the losses are here and are real, rather than just looming on the horizon.
- markets are understably afraid that these writedowns are only the tip of the iceberg.
- many interest rate cuts are already behind us, and inflation is knocking loudly on the door. As cavalier as the Fed has been about making the money cheaper, they will be increasingly apprehensive to cut as aggressively going forward, even though this policy has not lived up to their expectations (yet).
  • #2,112
  • Feb 29, 2008 12:28am Feb 29, 2008 12:28am
[quote=Subdude;1876500]There is nothing typical about tomorrow's correction (if it indeed does happen). Please read this article to get an idea for what's taking place here:

Excellent synopsis Subdude. Thanks!

You are correct that these issues are not typical. They are new and unique issues and will undoubtedly move the markets.

However....

What I meant by a typical Friday reversal is just that ....typical. The forex markets move in basically a straight line all week long, which they have this week. The focus has been 100% on a weaker dollar across the board. These issues would potentially just be the fuse to trigger this ticking time bomb in the forex market.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #2,113
  • Feb 29, 2008 1:56am Feb 29, 2008 1:56am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting TexasforEX
I'm asking myself "Why in the world do you keep thinking tomorrow will be a typical Friday reversal day??"
Thoughts?

so Here's why i think we could see a reversal - it's friday 29thfeb - leap Year - last day of the week and month, numbers are high, so there's planty of profit to be taken, in the past time like this have led to good retracements and new entries on monday driving the market next week - so watch your Stops.
  • #2,114
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:01am Feb 29, 2008 2:01am
Wow, it certainly looks like in the last 20 minutes everybody decided tomorrow the Fed wll announce another surprise rate cut. Quite childish, really.
  • #2,115
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:37am Feb 29, 2008 2:37am
Quoting Subdude
Wow, it certainly looks like in the last 20 minutes everybody decided tomorrow the Fed wll announce another surprise rate cut. Quite childish, really.

Looks like AJ is still headed down
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,116
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:39am Feb 29, 2008 2:39am
Quoting DutchTrader
Looks like AJ is still headed down
Yeah, UJ is dragging it down. Wait a minute, shouldn't you be asleep by now? it's like 3:40 am in NY.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #2,117
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:47am Feb 29, 2008 2:47am
Back to normal, finally. Too bad I jumped off AU @ 0.9461... well, the night is young.
  • #2,118
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:59am Feb 29, 2008 2:59am
Quoting Ash
Yeah, UJ is dragging it down. Wait a minute, shouldn't you be asleep by now? it's like 3:40 am in NY.
Had a midterm yesterday, came home, crashed, now I'm up to watch another crash
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,119
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:00am Feb 29, 2008 3:00am
Well this is either just the beginning of a big reversal or a good chance to reload longs....

9420 &9400 are key reversal levels IMO
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #2,120
  • Edited 5:03am Feb 29, 2008 3:09am | Edited 5:03am
European equities are up,

Well 96.93 is next.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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