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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #861
  • Feb 22, 2008 7:40pm Feb 22, 2008 7:40pm
Quoting ernesto
Wow... have to learn a lot... very very impressive! What would be interesting to me and maybe you can answer somehow. In this case - do you solely rely on the diamond + trend lines itself or do you also add other "tools" like harmonic patterns, elliot waves, fibbonacci and so on.

Just to get a feeling in which direction to put my efforts into...
I don't rely on something that is based on pure algebraic or numeric calculations. Bacause of that I don't use Fibos and other rather empiric methods or tools. Geometry is a different story and visual recognition approach works for me quite well. Diamond is just one of the common patterns that I use for traidng and analysis. As you can see on the pics, my screens are usually empty of indicators and oscillators.
  • #862
  • Edited 7:55pm Feb 22, 2008 7:45pm | Edited 7:55pm
Quoting ernesto
BTW... because of the correlation between USD/CHF and EUR/USD and the EUR/USD pattern shown in this post the assumptions made for USD/CHF become more probably in my opinion.

EUR/USD might go down pretty soon... and USD/CHF might go up... hmm... lets see...

Unfortunately I feel not yet very sure about EUR/USD setup itself... but... together with USD/CHF the overall picture makes me a little bit confident.

BTW... reading all your posts I could figure out that you trade USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD. Any others? Is there a reason for choosing exactly those pairs? "Missing" the Yen pairs - but... there might be some intention behind...
That potential diamond on the USD/CHF can equally become either a reversal or a continuation pattern. It's to early to call a reversal. Same should be true for this formation on the EUR/USD. It's undefined yet. Besides, this pattern is just a part of a side trend which it is incorporated into and thus may fail to produce what could be normally expected otherwise.
  • #863
  • Feb 22, 2008 7:53pm Feb 22, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting ernesto
Sorry for spamming your thread - but... another question/idea regarding average daily ranges where I currently use the last 25 days for calculation.

a) do you think using 25 days is appropriate?

b) would it make sense to change the calculation to average the last x days based on the day of the week. As far as I could analyze there might be differences between trading Mondays/Fridays compared to Tuesdays/Wednesdays/Thursdays. I would appreciate any opinion on that...

Many thanks in advance...
I don't make average range calculations. I just know them from the first glance at the chart. For me there are only tree possible ranges: "average", "excessive" and "below average". Those criterias are relatively loose. Besides, most of the extremes such as daily, weekly and monthly highs and lows usually have to have some technical significance and thus can be projected in advance in addition to the average range numbers.
  • #864
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:11am Feb 25, 2008 12:11am
An inverted vedge on hourly EUR/USD chart. It's a bearish pattern with likely target being at around 1.4520-30.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 60 min. EUR A0-FX.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #865
  • Feb 25, 2008 4:17am Feb 25, 2008 4:17am
Quoting Igrok
An inverted vedge on hourly EUR/USD chart. It's a bearish pattern with likely target being at around 1.4520-30.
Thanks, i.e. the target is the long term uptrend... what I am not sure about: how do we "know" that 1.47 will be broken? From technical analysis point of view - wouldn't a reversal @ 1.47 up to > 1.5 be equally probable as a break of the wedge down to 1.452 ?
  • #866
  • Feb 25, 2008 8:43am Feb 25, 2008 8:43am
Quoting ernesto
Thanks, i.e. the target is the long term uptrend... what I am not sure about: how do we "know" that 1.47 will be broken? From technical analysis point of view - wouldn't a reversal @ 1.47 up to > 1.5 be equally probable as a break of the wedge down to 1.452 ?
I don't get the question. I just said what I said.
  • #867
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:58am Feb 25, 2008 9:58am
With just 4 days left into the end of the month, the normal range on CAD/USD seems to be not formed yet and the current range is very likely to be extended. Because it is now trading closr to the bottom than the top of its February's range, the extension should rather be on the downside.
  • #868
  • Edited 11:48am Feb 25, 2008 11:22am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting Igrok
I don't get the question. I just said what I said.
Guess meanwhile I understand... Target of a Down-Breakout of an upside inverted wedge is always the bottom at the beginning of this inverted wedge. As the important up-trendline is before this bottom, this is the target (exactly the target specified by you)
  • #869
  • Feb 25, 2008 6:04pm Feb 25, 2008 6:04pm
Ig,
I'm in the process of setting up Amibroker with Forex data. I would like to color code the bars like your charts.

I only have End of Day data at this stage.

Just to clarify:

Daily Chart=different color bars for each week.

Weekly Chart=different color bars for each Month.

Monthly chart=different colors for each Year.

Is that the way yours is setup?

Thanks.
  • #870
  • Feb 25, 2008 6:26pm Feb 25, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting BentRod
Ig,
I'm in the process of setting up Amibroker with Forex data. I would like to color code the bars like your charts.

I only have End of Day data at this stage.

Just to clarify:

Daily Chart=different color bars for each week.

Weekly Chart=different color bars for each Month.

Monthly chart=different colors for each Year.

Is that the way yours is setup?

Thanks.
No. Daily bars have different color for each month.
Weekly and monthly are different for each year.
Also intraday bars are different for each day (but you will not have those apparently)
  • #871
  • Feb 25, 2008 6:44pm Feb 25, 2008 6:44pm
Thanks mate.
  • #872
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:50am Feb 26, 2008 11:50am
Quoting Igrok
With just 4 days left into the end of the month, the normal range on CAD/USD seems to be not formed yet and the current range is very likely to be extended. Because it is now trading closr to the bottom than the top of its February's range, the extension should rather be on the downside.
These are the considerations I really like.
Was already in it before the breakdown luckily

I wanted to ask how many units you use to generate for the "normal range", or simply: what do you mean when you say / how do you define "simple range"? (i.e. do you use ATR and over how many bars if so)

I'm pretty sure I asked this before or at least a related question, so forgive me, but I can't remember(got a cold at the moment) and didn't find it via search.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #873
  • Edited 2:18pm Feb 26, 2008 1:45pm | Edited 2:18pm
Would you consider the following chart formation a valid trade setup if breakout of consolidation rectangle occurs to the south?

History: Falling wedge has been broken down what gives a price target of the break-out - area minus the beginning of the wedge.
Attached Image
  • #874
  • Feb 26, 2008 3:46pm Feb 26, 2008 3:46pm
USD/CAD has gone to plan, has extended almost to average now.

@Seeking Light, pretty sure he just eyeballs the bars, no ATR is used.
  • #875
  • Feb 26, 2008 4:29pm Feb 26, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting SeekingLight

I wanted to ask how many units you use to generate for the "normal range", or simply: what do you mean when you say / how do you define "simple range"? (i.e. do you use ATR and over how many bars if so)
I already said it million times but can repeat once again: "Don't trade math formulas or models based on some sort of pure mathematics. Use your own eyes and common sense and trade the market itself."
With CAD it was obvious choice and the right conclusion could be made from the first glance at the chart.
  • #876
  • Feb 26, 2008 4:30pm Feb 26, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting ernesto
Would you consider the following chart formation a valid trade setup if breakout of consolidation rectangle occurs to the south?

History: Falling wedge has been broken down what gives a price target of the break-out - area minus the beginning of the wedge.
I don't know. I doubt it. Most likely the pattern will be broken on both sides.
  • #877
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:09pm Feb 26, 2008 5:09pm
I just noticed the Monthly range looks a bit short on USDJPY also.
  • #878
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:56pm Feb 26, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting BentRod
I just noticed the Monthly range looks a bit short on USDJPY also.
Yes. It looks like that. Also it seems USD/JPY might want to extend the range on the upside.
  • #879
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:59pm Feb 26, 2008 5:59pm
And the logical place for a stop would be underneath that channel on the dailies if it were to start moving?
  • #880
  • Feb 26, 2008 6:04pm Feb 26, 2008 6:04pm
Quoting BentRod
And the logical place for a stop would be underneath that channel on the dailies if it were to start moving?
It's not a channel. It's a triangle. The stops are better be placed below last week's low. But the chances are not as good as they were on CAD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily JPY A0-FX.jpg Size: 83 KB
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