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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,201
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:20am Feb 26, 2008 5:20am
Quoting Pipsi cola
German Ifo Business Conditions Index came out better than expected. Didn't see any good places to get long with it. Although one could have gone long after the long 1hour candle that had a higher close. It was right after price had touched a 23.6% retracement level of that up-move.
Using 4h MACD system I don't see where to get in. Strong German IFO + potential weak US PPI could support EUR. spot near to range top is a concern.

A.
  • #12,202
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:36am Feb 26, 2008 5:36am
I've insert a picture to explain why do we have to wait for a candle to close before taking a trade. An open (or a running) candlestick won't give us any signal on MACD yet because it is still lagging. An open candlestick won't lead us anywhere but fake signals if we were taking a trade before the bar closes, expecially on the CT. Why? Because the candle could form into anything it wants before it closes. A hammer? A doji? A bullish/bearish candle? Or maybe a spinning top? We wouldn't know (at least for me).

In case like this one today, I've taken a snapshot and insetted it there. Macd was red and gave us signal to take a CT sell position. I didn't take it because the day is not over yet (and i don't trade the daily).
After a few hours news came out and brought MACD back to blue again. Therefore there's nothing we can do until the candle closes to confirm what type of candle would it be, and what MACD signal would lead us to.

My 2 cents.
Hijackxx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily edited .gif Size: 26 KB
  • #12,203
  • Feb 26, 2008 6:00am Feb 26, 2008 6:00am
EUR/USD
Long
We all saw it, the news related thrust into a TC, wow what a push. I took this trade on the four hour. I entered at the new candle at my time 10pm there was a strong bounce off the 21 MACD gave a TC my stop is just under the 61% point of the bullish engulfing bar risk is 43 pips.

Ent 14864
stop 14821

USD/CHF
Short
I took a TC on the swissy resistance at the 21 fall broke the minor rally MACD gave a ZB. some support to watch at 10833.

Ent 10869
stop 10907

**1 hour trade**
EUR/CHF
Long
MACD gave a micro round bottom, but main reason i took it is by eye it hit the trend angle and bounced off. You will also notice the PA is in a bullish continuation pattern. I know this is not a 4 hour trade but I felt it worth putting up.

Ent 16153.6
stop 16134

Good Trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4.gif Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf4.gif Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf1.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #12,204
  • Feb 26, 2008 6:55am Feb 26, 2008 6:55am
Quoting hijackxx
I've insert a picture to explain why do we have to wait for a candle to close before taking a trade. An open (or a running) candlestick won't give us any signal on MACD yet because it is still lagging. An open candlestick won't lead us anywhere but fake signals if we were taking a trade before the bar closes, expecially on the CT. Why? Because the candle could form into anything it wants before it closes. A hammer? A doji? A bullish/bearish candle? Or maybe a spinning top? We wouldn't know (at least for me).

In case like this one today, I've taken a snapshot and insetted it there. Macd was red and gave us signal to take a CT sell position. I didn't take it because the day is not over yet (and i don't trade the daily).
After a few hours news came out and brought MACD back to blue again. Therefore there's nothing we can do until the candle closes to confirm what type of candle would it be, and what MACD signal would lead us to.

My 2 cents.
Hijackxx
Good point. This is where the patience factor comes in to play. Let the candle close. I've seen it many times and was a victim in the beginning more than once. You try to get in early before the candle closes only to have it reverse on you and turn into a loss. Patience + Discipline = Pips.

The TC from the 21 on the EU is just another easy picking if you follow that formula.

Watch out for the PPI. A spike could boost the $.
  • #12,205
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:03am Feb 26, 2008 7:03am
there was two nice TC signal on gbpusd and usdcad today.i dont know why i jumped in a CT trade !
  • #12,206
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:05am Feb 26, 2008 7:05am
Quoting bshadroo
German Ifo

what do you mean with "Ifo"?
  • #12,207
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:20am Feb 26, 2008 7:20am
Congrads everyone on the good trades. My emotions got the best of me since I got stopped out by 2 pips on the swissy. Another problem I have is that I can usually pick the market direction using Phillip's rules but I wake up and see a large candle (not too large 30-40) pips and think to myself that the move is over and I will catch the next one. But of course it is not when in fact a large candle is good. I think I need to paper trade some more.
  • #12,208
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:23am Feb 26, 2008 7:23am
Quoting tradey
what do you mean with "Ifo"?
EURhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gifGerman Ifo Business Climate Index
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 104.1
103.0103.4
  • #12,209
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:05am Feb 26, 2008 8:05am
I guess the greenback is just that weak. The strong PPI number didn't phase the EU at all. Donna!!! Where are you?!?!?!?!

Quadruple top, 100 Fib, top of the uptrend channel, all three in the same area for the next resistance area around 4920....
Attached Image
  • #12,210
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:11am Feb 26, 2008 8:11am
bshadroo http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif

DO U HAVE A MSN ??

Quoting bshadroo
EURhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gifGerman Ifo Business Climate Index
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 104.1
103.0103.4
  • #12,211
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:16am Feb 26, 2008 8:16am
MAYBE , EURUSD are waiting for the consumer confidence in one hour..

i like ur chart ,,guy,



Quoting Palmer
I guess the greenback is just that weak. The strong PPI number didn't phase the EU at all. Donna!!! Where are you?!?!?!?!

Quadruple top, 100 Fib, top of the uptrend channel, all three in the same area for the next resistance area around 4920....
  • #12,212
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:23am Feb 26, 2008 8:23am
Quoting Cinema007
bshadroo http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif

DO U HAVE A MSN ??
there is a skype chat for h4 traders but i'm not really comfort with that ,i also like a yahoo messenger chat .my ID in yahoo is:[email protected]
  • #12,213
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:24am Feb 26, 2008 8:24am
Here is a written copy of daily wrapup for the 25th of February.
Nice trade Phillip!

Bought G/U 1.9737 Sl 1.9694 TP 1.9796. Reasons: bullish divergence on daily, went out of the consolidation, closed above resistance, with the trend off strong support, MACD TC.

Yes!!!! Where is Donna?!?!?! Come back we need you .
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc wrapup for the 25th of Feb.doc   28 KB | 490 downloads
  • #12,214
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:25am Feb 26, 2008 8:25am
Quoting Palmer
I guess the greenback is just that weak. The strong PPI number didn't phase the EU at all. Donna!!! Where are you?!?!?!?!

Quadruple top, 100 Fib, top of the uptrend channel, all three in the same area for the next resistance area around 4920....
the ppi will effect on price soon or late i think .sometimes the news doest effect on the release but after some minutes they effect
  • #12,215
  • Edited 11:30am Feb 26, 2008 11:15am | Edited 11:30am

Last night position for a long breakout closed at BE.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Todays GbpUsd trade
MACD confirmed the breakout with TC signal. Waiting for 1Hour pullback


13:00 1 Hour pullback entry
Entry 1.6705
Stoploss 1.9680 (Only prepared to risk 25)
TP 1.9815 at 365ema. Watch for 1.9800 pricelevel


Edit 1
50% closed at 1.9735. Remainder set at 1.9690.

Edit 2
Closed remainder at 1.9798

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpUsd.GIF Size: 44 KB
  • #12,216
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:18am Feb 26, 2008 11:18am
Phil,
I was having trouble analyzing your TP for a GBPUSD trade on Feb. 14, in which you made 10 pips. Here was your marks.

Buy Entry 1.9704
Stop: 1.9669
TP: 1.9738

Did you take 50% profit at 1.9738 (24 pips) and eventually get stopped out on the remaining 50% at 1.9700 (-4 pips)?

I understand why you entered, but couldn't decipher your exit strategy.
Nice trade on the GBP trade today!
  • #12,217
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:28am Feb 26, 2008 11:28am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 26 Feb2008.zip   807 KB | 847 downloads
  • #12,218
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:31am Feb 26, 2008 11:31am
I missed beautiful GU tc Trade today
entry would have been 1.9702 ----. was waiting for it but could not be at computer at time of signal,. did not want to enter in the motion after that specially with so much news lined today. Oh well, will wait for next set up.
Hope you guys mae pips today.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,219
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:36am Feb 26, 2008 11:36am
Totally off topic but anyone having problem accessing their HOTMAIL account today. thanks
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,220
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:40am Feb 26, 2008 11:40am
palmer:
hi , where do u wanna close ur eu long? ,its now 4916
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