Elliott Wave Counting with EG

GBPJPY Charts for 022508

EG

GBPJPY EWA Chart
Weekly Chart
ABC or 123

Based on the FIB Extention Guideline, C can only be up to FE 161.8 of points w0 wA and wB.

Beyond FE 161.8 , we instead have a 5 wave impulse or a very complex corrective wave.

As it is on the GBPJPY chart, the potential of an ABC is still on the table.

So we move on to the Daily chart because we would be focusing on the wave C leg now.

Based on the structure, I would say that w1 and w2 are finished in Green label. But wave 3 Green seems to be still in development as an extended impulse wave.

Sub waves within this extended green wave 3, are labeled in Red. The current sideways expansion on the daily chart seems to be still the wave 4 red of the extended wave 3 Green.

a.) this wave 4 red has retraced wave 3 red by around 38.2% which fits into the guideline of alternation. Wave 2 retraced by a little above 61.8% of wave 1 so that there is a higher tendency for wave 4 to retrace by the balance of the 100% percentage point. This means if wave 2 retraces wave 1 by 61.8% then expect wave 4 to retrace wave 3 by 61.8% or vice versa.

b.) wave 2 retraced wave 1 by what looks like a zigzag wave so by the guideline of alternation also, wave 4 is expected to be a FLAT or a Triangle. A zigzag will normally result in a 61.8% retracement while a FLAT or a triangle would result to a 38.2 or a 23.6% retracement. Currently, the 4hour chart would show that price has retrace wave 3 red by a little above 38.2% .

c.) I am labelling the move starting from 213.86 down to 208.75 as w1 of the wave 5 red down to finish the bigger wave 3 Green towards 197.85

Overall I am more biased that this pair will go down to finish the wave 5 red of wave 3 Green. Unless it takes out the previous high of 211.93 which it just did right now as I type.

Next target is most likely 213.83. This is based on the 4 hour chart with that 4 hour resistance trendline.

I have just placed my Long trade now even if goes the other way ( could be a possible big drawdown as it comes down to complete Wave 3 green). But the interest will be good on this one. Price will eventually have to come back up for the wave 4 Green.

EGJ

hi,

does anybody watch u/j? looks like its going overall up maybe the last wave in this sideways movement.

Hey, this looks to be the last wave of USDJPY before the fall

yup, i have the same count. looks like a diagonal triangle.

Hi guys, the same I have

GBP/USD 1 hour

Looks like GBPJPY is doing it again.

While most of the USD majors are seen to retrace wave 1 for wave 2 by 61.8%, GBPJPY would retrace up to 88% of wave 1.

Current price action leads me to believe that Price is now on the wave 3 of the wave 5 Red down to finish wave 3 Green.

Unless 213.86 is taken out ( Pinbar)

Note that these charts are daily and 4 hours. We can expect another move up on the 15 min chart for that wave 2 retrace on the wave 1 down of higher degree.

EG

good nigh EG..nice to meet you again
how about eur/usd plz...
thx

GBPJPY

Price projection seems 22 pips of the actual point where it made a retrace unless this potential wave 4 is an irregular flat.

EG


Hey adji04.. its been sometime since you've posted here. will try to post sometjhing on eurusd later.

adjusted wave 3 end and happy to TP @ 50% retrace or near that mark

EG

adji04....took me awhile to get this thing up.

anyway, you will see how the earlier proposed counts or potential counts are eliminated for various reasons.

2nd chart is the only way I see now which is possible to explain for the wave count that supports the move up. Previous high of wD was taken out so that eliminated the complex count I initially suggested when the symmetrical triangle failed .

Although I earlier mentioned that if we switch to a line graph, we would have a BULLISH Barrier triangle.

So now I have to switch to a line chart and the support and resistance trendlines somehow fit into the barrier triangle.

EG

Looks interesting

Potential for wave 2 after finishing wave 1 on 15min chart of GBPJPY.

EG

Hedging my Long trade with short to 209 based partly on Trend Follower System and the Andrews Pitchfork Analysis.

5min chart is now sending signals to go long based on the swing in the Andrews Pitchfork with the following targets

211.67 @ the Daily Pivot Level
211.72 @ the 38.2 % retrace of the previous days trading range
212.06 @ 50% retrace of previous day's range
212.27 based on the price swing on the Andrew's Pitchfork
212.39 @ 61.8% retrace of previous dya's price range

earlier short trade was based on the 15 min chart using the Andrew's Pitchfork. But the trigger was from the trend Follower Moving Average System. However, I broke the trend Followersystem rule to use it from Franfurt open onwards only and not before that.

Holding both long and short trades now.

EG

15min chart .

Moving Average System based on the Trend Follower plus stochastics also provide a visual for me when doing my wave counts.

EG

going down the 5min chart on GBPJPY....

Boxed area could see the beginning of wave 2 UP Red.

EG

ps. sorry for the chart delay. had to restart my pc because I could not attach the chart to the post earlier.

1150 GMT
pps
I apologize for the eurusd label on the chart. I missed to remove that as I was switching between currency pairs and using the same chart template.

Today's wave pattern from yesterday's high at 1.9975 may indicate wave C completed and we have wave (1) of new downtrend ??

lets see if we get just an (abc) retracement now ?
If so - Good selling point.....

This would mean wave C was a 3 waves affair, completing a wave (IV) ??

Have a nice Day !

GBPUSD


well your high is better than what I got. mine was only 1.9970 while yours was at 1.9975. My target was at 1.9979

looks like wave 4 turned out to be a FLAT wave for now. as to wave C being a 3 wave....... you could be right and be wrong on that in labelling terms as I am.

let me explain this....

we can both be right that wave 4 ended at your 1.9975 and my 1.9970
=== if we get a 5 waves down then a 3 waves up then another move down to take out or go lower than the low of the previous 5 wave down. Getting 2 Lower Highs (LH).

by being wrong in labelling terms, i am refering to using wxyxz instead of the usual abc for this corrective wave.

please voice up your opinion on this if you do not agree. I am just starting to realize or rationalize this.

in most of the references I have encountered or all that I can remember is that :
wave A can be a 3 (zigzag, flat or irregular) or a 5 (impulse or triangle) wave structure and
wave B can be 3 (zigzag, flat or irregular) or 5 (triangle only) wave structure while
wave C is always 5 wave structure (motive: impulse, triangle, truncated)

for this "wave C" to be 3 wave structure, then the overall structure must be a complex correction which should be labelled as wxyxz.

just my thought running thru this analysis.

However, if we get 3 waves down instead of 5 waves down on the 4 hour chart , then watch out as price will need to maki a 5 wave move up with a potential limit at 2.0360

A or 1 must be A because of the 3 wave structure of that leg.

That leaves as with a BIG ABC structure where 1.9337 may have been the bottom of this ABC correction. and that mobe up from 1.9337 was w1, w2 and we are actually seeing a w3 in development on the Daily chart.

OR

we are seeing a much bigger correction structure where what we actually have on the GBPUSD daily chart is wA, wB and w1 of wC. and no we are seeing w2 of the wC which if it retraces w1 of wC by 61.8% will be @ 2.062 just a bit below the FE 161.8 for a FLAT corrective w2 of wC.

EG