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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,061
  • Feb 23, 2008 2:49pm Feb 23, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Haha, will do. Normally I would just roll my eyes & think "oh that crazy Dutch, what the hell is he talking about?!"
thats what my g/f usually says. On a more serious note, any thoughts on the Aud going forward? This risk aversion has really prevented a serious post rate hike rally eh?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,062
  • Feb 23, 2008 4:35pm Feb 23, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting DutchTrader
This risk aversion has really prevented a serious post rate hike rally eh?
I'm just range trading GBP/CHF lately (it's had a GREAT range the past month). Between that and waiting forever for a decent CJ setup, I hate to say it, but I've missed the boat entirely on AU/AJ and NU. AU has had multiple buy signals since the Jan recovery, heck even closing the Nov 8th gap at 9080 was a great buy signal, good for 160 pips. Don't even get me started on kiwi.. I shouldn't complain, 2008 has started off really well so far. I just can't buy kiwi at >79 or AU at >91, even though there might be a good run still left in them this cycle.

If the Ambac recovery rally lasts through next week, and I imagine it will, I'm going to look for the best opportunity play. Right now, I'm leaning towards GJ. IMO, sterling is incredibly oversold against just about everything.
  • #2,063
  • Feb 23, 2008 5:21pm Feb 23, 2008 5:21pm
I'm assuming you mean US housing? I've run a couple of scenarios and every scenario points upward for the AUD.

On the charts I'm getting what everyone else is getting too, AUD to parity and beyond.

.95 by June and 1.00 by December is the bias.

I like it, but it does seem too good to be true. FYI, I don't deal in crosses, only in USD pairs.
  • #2,064
  • Feb 23, 2008 5:23pm Feb 23, 2008 5:23pm
Quoting Trader KGB
I'm just range trading GBP/CHF lately (it's had a GREAT range the past month). Between that and waiting forever for a decent CJ setup, I hate to say it, but I've missed the boat entirely on AU/AJ and NU. AU has had multiple buy signals since the Jan recovery, heck even closing the Nov 8th gap at 9080 was a great buy signal, good for 160 pips. Don't even get me started on kiwi.. I shouldn't complain, 2008 has started off really well so far. I just can't buy kiwi at >79 or AU at >91, even though there might be a good run still left in them this cycle.

If the Ambac recovery rally lasts through next week, and I imagine it will, I'm going to look for the best opportunity play. Right now, I'm leaning towards GJ. IMO, sterling is incredibly oversold against just about everything.
I've been scalping NU a bit, but I've mad AJ my bread and butter. I agree on Sterling, GJ is looking ripe for a serious move up. I haven't traded Gbp/Chf in a while. I think AU is going to go to 9400 but after that who knows.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,065
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:26am Feb 24, 2008 7:26am
Quoting TheTopBloke
I'm assuming you mean US housing? I've run a couple of scenarios and every scenario points upward for the AUD.

On the charts I'm getting what everyone else is getting too, AUD to parity and beyond.

.95 by June and 1.00 by December is the bias.

I like it, but it does seem too good to be true. FYI, I don't deal in crosses, only in USD pairs.
Yes, US Housing.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,066
  • Feb 24, 2008 3:52pm Feb 24, 2008 3:52pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Trader KGB
That is bizarre. I thought maybe you have Sunday candles in your chart, so I tried another MT4 demo with them, and it only lowers the 100ema. Here's a common source we can check. It shows the 100ema on the AJ daily at 97.77.
Are you both using the same price ( High, low , close etc) this make a bigger difference as you move lower in the TF - and as such would show a bigger gap on daily than on weekly.

just a thought.

i use EMA typical (HLC/3) and it's at 97.48 on the daily with a North finance demo

hope this helps

BTW, missed my entry when my broadband went down on friday WTF, was looking to long AJ of the daily 8ema - should have set a buy/stop order but was watching for abetter price.

nevermind i'll catch up this week.
  • #2,067
  • Feb 24, 2008 10:12pm Feb 24, 2008 10:12pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
I'm assuming you mean US housing? I've run a couple of scenarios and every scenario points upward for the AUD.

On the charts I'm getting what everyone else is getting too, AUD to parity and beyond.

.95 by June and 1.00 by December is the bias.

I like it, but it does seem too good to be true. FYI, I don't deal in crosses, only in USD pairs.
You ought to look closer at the economic fundamentals. Such a position above .94 will see a massive correction and then a hard downward trend. Australia cannot sustain parity and certainly cant go beyond. This is where it would all go well beyond reality into total fantasy.
  • #2,068
  • Feb 24, 2008 10:14pm Feb 24, 2008 10:14pm
Quoting mchael
You ought to look closer at the economic fundamentals. Such a position above .94 will see a massive correction and then a hard downward trend. Australia cannot sustain parity and certainly cant go beyond. This is where it would all go well beyond reality into total fantasy.
There is a huge current account deficit, but the commodities boom isn't ending anytime soon, or is it? I guess that's the million dollar question.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,069
  • Feb 25, 2008 3:31am Feb 25, 2008 3:31am
the mistake everyone makes is that booms never end. The bigger mistake is getting caught in adrenalin plays in the market. Remember in this game where there is a winner there has to be a looser. And everyones takes a turn.

If you look closely the commodities, they account for about 7-8% AU GDP. And the volume has not changed much in the last few years. just the price of commodities has gone up but still not at record 2006 levels.

The bulk of the economy is based on credit and pretty much borrowed from the rest of the world - a few months of retails sales (mostly using credit) equals what is sold in commodities in a year.
  • #2,070
  • Feb 25, 2008 4:31am Feb 25, 2008 4:31am
That's simply not true.
  • #2,071
  • Feb 25, 2008 7:08am Feb 25, 2008 7:08am
Quoting TheTopBloke
That's simply not true.
Please elaborate?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,072
  • Feb 25, 2008 7:20am Feb 25, 2008 7:20am
South Africa has to lay off more than 6,000 gold miners due to power shortages, this in a time when gold is hitting record prices, look for gold to go even higher which should push the rest of the commodities higher as well.
Just Trade It
  • #2,073
  • Feb 25, 2008 10:17am Feb 25, 2008 10:17am
AU and AJ look exhausted, particularly worrisome is the lack of follow through after the 09250 break. AJ Was unable to break through the 100.10 level. Looks like Crisco to me.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,074
  • Feb 25, 2008 4:45pm Feb 25, 2008 4:45pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
That's simply not true.

Share the numbers, I'm keen to hear more
  • #2,075
  • Feb 25, 2008 10:02pm Feb 25, 2008 10:02pm
what is the next level of resistance if 94 is broken? Can someone post a monthly chart on AUD/USD? Im thinking of holding my long position, but want to know a good spot to let go.
Jeff
  • #2,076
  • Feb 25, 2008 10:23pm Feb 25, 2008 10:23pm
Quoting jeffmelvin
what is the next level of resistance if 94 is broken? Can someone post a monthly chart on AUD/USD? Im thinking of holding my long position, but want to know a good spot to let go.
Jeff
Looks like the March 1984 high at 9648.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,077
  • Edited 10:20pm Feb 26, 2008 10:13pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting mchael
If you look closely the commodities, they account for about 7-8% AU GDP. And the volume has not changed much in the last few years. just the price of commodities has gone up but still not at record 2006 levels.

The bulk of the economy is based on credit and pretty much borrowed from the rest of the world - a few months of retails sales (mostly using credit) equals what is sold in commodities in a year.
Where did you get this data? Sounds like you're talking about the US, not Australia.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69167

I'm sick of retyping it. If there is something that is incorrect or you have more accurate data, please let me know.

BTW, try wiring $10k from IOUSA to Australia. Last quoted was .99 less than 24 hours ago.

Go figure.
  • #2,078
  • Feb 27, 2008 5:50am Feb 27, 2008 5:50am
So in my charts I have AU at making .9399
Does anybody's charts show it going to .9400?

So a new high by a pip. Can it go higher?
Just Trade It
  • #2,079
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:48am Feb 27, 2008 6:48am
I've got 9648 as well.

KGB,

I'm finally using MT4, still getting the hang of it.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,080
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:49am Feb 27, 2008 7:49am
I need AUDUSD to hit the skids, in a big way. I am looking for decrease in exports due to china protectionist trade practices leading to less reliance of imported food and coal.

(the AUD is unbelieveable...it just won't go down. )
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