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Almost 95% winner USD/CHF System

  • #41
  • Edited 10:10am Feb 24, 2008 9:52am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting Trumpcard
thanks Peter for sharing your system. what do you do in the following situation when everything is moving sideways and we have whipsaw galore?
Just putting my 2 cents worth in FWIT. First of all look at the chart. Everything there is telling you it's flatlining and going nowhere. The RSI is absoluletly flat, and the EMA's are too. There's no angle or separation there between the 8 & the 21.

You stay OUT of the market with these conditions. Wait for the trade to come to you. Never hurry to TRY and find a trade. With this system of Peter's you'll see it when it's there.
  • #42
  • Feb 24, 2008 10:28am Feb 24, 2008 10:28am
thanks Flamenoc for clearing that up

so once all the conditions have been met, do we enter at the start of the next bar after the cross?
  • #43
  • Feb 24, 2008 12:19pm Feb 24, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting charlinks
Well... it probably needs to filter some of the cases... it's currently losing when backtesting.

Anyone care to give it a fine tuning?

Hey thanks for the EA, I'll try it on demo, using some discretion with the settings, like always look at higher timeframes, to determine direction. In this case (now) I'd think taking short trades only, would be more profitable... unless unless, price on higher time frames is far away from the MA21, then often the MA acts as a rubber ban, pulling price back to its self... and a crossing of the MA on 1 hour could be confirmation of that reversal.... so much discretion...

Another addition to the EA might be that if a second order gets triggered, price crossing and closing above or below the MA going the opposite direction, that the first order is closed automatically... Maybe it's already programmed this way?

I was also wondering, does this EA trigger trades based on 1 hour candle closed, above or below MA21, or any penetration of the MA?
  • #44
  • Feb 24, 2008 2:32pm Feb 24, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting Trumpcard
thanks Flamenoc for clearing that up

so once all the conditions have been met, do we enter at the start of the next bar after the cross?
Hey Trumpcard - wish I could answer that. I've watched it both ways, and I 'usually' wait for candle to close. However - remember I have been a scalper for 3 years so I'm use to those smaller time frame charts.

Taking an educated guess with the hour long time frame you probably have the time during the forming of the candle to make a decision there, ergo how fast it's forming a tail or body and how much, etc etc. Probably it is best to wait till the next candle starts forming.

Probably Peter (or anyone who is an experienced live account trader on longer time frames) can clear that question up better than me.
  • #45
  • Feb 24, 2008 3:36pm Feb 24, 2008 3:36pm
Those following this system might want to add an alert to advise you when the 8 and 21 EMA's cross. Then check the RSI & Stoch as Peter has them for further qualifying whether or not to enter or exit a trade.

There are a couple listed various places in the FF. Probably they are all close to being the same. This is one I use. You'll need to change the values from the stock ones to 8 for Fast, and 21 for slow.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 2MA Crossover.mq4   8 KB | 384 downloads
  • #46
  • Feb 24, 2008 4:19pm Feb 24, 2008 4:19pm
Dear All,

Thankyou all for your responses anre views....very encouraging =D.

I have backtested and would like to add an extra thing to this system, thanks to the insight of cryten, we can add a +5 and a -5 level to the 21 EMA, and not take a long until the 8 EMA has crossed the upper level of the 21 and not take a short until the 8EMA has crossed the lower level of the 21...This way we can remove all possibilities of crazy whipsaws as we see in the chart.

So thankyou all for contributing and developing this filter.

I am also working on a new Stoploss and profit target system that I will inform you all of in a few hours after I complete its backtesting.

Thankyou All =D.

Peter.

I will be adding the levels to the rules in the first part of the thread
  • #47
  • Feb 24, 2008 6:16pm Feb 24, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting cryten
wow really did get very drunk last night but i agree keep the thread simple. i apologise for all my charts.

now i need to sort out my hair, thought it a good idea to cut it myself last night
ROTFL!!

You did WHAT? See ya on skype!

Great system here - will be back with something more substantial during the week.

Greetings!
Gnat
  • #48
  • Feb 25, 2008 1:29am Feb 25, 2008 1:29am
Quoting pwramses
Dear All,

Thankyou all for your responses anre views....very encouraging =D.

I have backtested and would like to add an extra thing to this system, thanks to the insight of cryten, we can add a +5 and a -5 level to the 21 EMA, and not take a long until the 8 EMA has crossed the upper level of the 21 and not take a short until the 8EMA has crossed the lower level of the 21...This way we can remove all possibilities of crazy whipsaws as we see in the chart.

So thankyou all for contributing and developing this filter.

I am also working on a new Stoploss and profit target system that I will inform you all of in a few hours after I complete its backtesting.

Thankyou All =D.

Peter.

I will be adding the levels to the rules in the first part of the thread
Keep it up dude, it seems like a decent system, I will check it out in more detail over the course of the week.
  • #49
  • Feb 25, 2008 4:42am Feb 25, 2008 4:42am
Quoting pwramses
Dear All,
- 21 Exponential moving average
- Add +5 and -5 levels to the 21 EMA
Looking forward to your responses.
Peter: I am a rank beginner and I am using Intellichart to implement your system. I have
- 21 Exponential moving average

but please explain what you mean by

- Add +5 and -5 levels to the 21 EMA

Many thanks.
  • #50
  • Feb 25, 2008 7:23am Feb 25, 2008 7:23am
Hi Peter,

thanks for sharing this.

I am running it on the eur/chf 30 min chart exactly as u posted it. I will keep u updated with how i go. I like it simple good filters and will keep me entertained while I wait on the four hour MACD entries!

I am watching to see how the new 21 setting goes.

Cheers and good trading!
  • #51
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:04am Feb 25, 2008 9:04am
Quoting booktimes
I think alot of threads die because people take a simple profitable system and add this and take away that and after about 20 pages the system is nothing like what it originally was.
If and I say if this system is 95% profitable then why change it, I think we all know that the holy grail dosent exist, forex dosent allow that, lets all try it in its original form, post results and just ride the good times.
No offence is meant to anyone. but I understand why threads die, people get confused and lose interest
Respect
Tom(uk)
The FF is chock full of strategies and so many dry up for these reasons. After 100 pages or so you never find any more contributions or examples by the original author. Hope Peter keeps this clean and simple. If his success rate is even close to his claims he has done better than most others who claim 70% to 80% (yeah - right!) successful trade ratio. As previously said, "if it ain't broke - don't fix it!"
  • #52
  • Edited 9:46am Feb 26, 2008 7:46am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting achalk
Peter: I am a rank beginner and I am using Intellichart to implement your system. I have
- 21 Exponential moving average

but please explain what you mean by

- Add +5 and -5 levels to the 21 EMA

Many thanks.
Open up your 21 EMA window, (where it has Parameters - Levels - Visualization), open up the Levels, then click on 'Add' , type in -5, repeat Add, then type in 5.

Then all you have to do is choose a color and you're in business.
HOWEVER - when Peter first explained his system just a couple of days ago he was just using 1 chart with the 8 & 21 EMA's, RSI of 21 and a 14-5-5 Stoch; and no added 5 & -5 with the 21. (See Fishkers chart @Post #5)

Being a 'Newbee' I'd STRONGLY suggest you start familiarizing yourself and getting use to Peter's simpler method that he originally wrote about before he modified it and added the SMA chart with the 5 & -5 levels. When all is said and done you may find they'll probably produce close to the same results, but certainly it is an easier system and strategy to understand and impliment, especially for a newbee. And after all, with the original strategy Peter said he hits almost 95% winners.

Hope this helps!
  • #53
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:32pm Feb 26, 2008 5:32pm
can u tell us the total number of trades and the total number of pips you've made in this 6 month period.
  • #54
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:13am Feb 27, 2008 1:13am
Looks good, thanks for sharing!

Regards - Xaron
  • #55
  • Feb 27, 2008 9:35pm Feb 27, 2008 9:35pm
Quoting Flamenco143
Open up your 21 EMA window, (where it has Parameters - Levels - Visualization), open up the Levels, then click on 'Add' , type in -5, repeat Add, then type in 5.

Then all you have to do is choose a color and you're in business.
HOWEVER - when Peter first explained his system just a couple of days ago he was just using 1 chart with the 8 & 21 EMA's, RSI of 21 and a 14-5-5 Stoch; and no added 5 & -5 with the 21. (See Fishkers chart @Post #5)

Being a 'Newbee' I'd STRONGLY suggest you start familiarizing yourself and getting use to Peter's simpler method that he originally wrote about before he modified it and added the SMA chart with the 5 & -5 levels. When all is said and done you may find they'll probably produce close to the same results, but certainly it is an easier system and strategy to understand and impliment, especially for a newbee. And after all, with the original strategy Peter said he hits almost 95% winners.

Hope this helps!
Thanks for the reply. Here is a quote from Peter (#1). He appears to have the +5 and -5 lines in the original system. Furthermore, they are needed to make a trading decision:

Quote
Dear All,

My name is Peter Ramses from Egypt. I have been following the trading systems threads on forex factory for a very long time and I would like to thank everybody who has helped =). I would like to post my system. It isnt really a creation but just an observation and I have been trading it live with amazing results and have not had but minor losses.

I use this method of trading with the USD/CHF and here are the rules:

You will be needing to open two 1hour charts of USD/CHF

In the first one plot:

- 21 Exponential moving average
- Add +5 and -5 levels to the 21 EMA
- 8 Exponential moving average
- Stochastic (14,5,5)
- RSI (21)
- MACD (5,13,1)

In the second one plot:

- 21 Simple moving average

Also, in your instructions are you referring to Intellichart? There is no Parameters - Levels - Visualization menu option in my copy.

Regards,

Andrew
  • #56
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:45am Feb 28, 2008 1:45am
Hi Andrew,
Peter went back and modified it on Post #1 - so what you now read there is NOT his original strategy.

Like I said, if you look at the chart posted at #5 you will see no added +5/-5. This chart was posted right after he gave his unmodified version.

So - the confusion starts unfortunately. And no, I wasn't referring to the Intellicharts about changing the parameters, but the Metatrader4 platform which most traders use because of it's popularity.
  • #57
  • Feb 28, 2008 4:56am Feb 28, 2008 4:56am
Dear all,

sorry i was away yesterday....im studying engineering and i had a damn exam =D.

The levels i placed in the system, are a good way to prevent false signals:
the times when the moving averages are close to each other and slide along each other while the market is just moving sideways, the levels are there to show a clear cut crossing with enough distance to make sure that the moving averages have really crossed and are distancing from each other.

I use metatrader, available on http://www.interbankfx.com

download the platform and setup a demo account if u want to.

These are the templates for metatrader, open 2 windows and set a template to each of them. To do that, download the 2 files, then open C:/, then program files, then Interbank Trader FX 4, then the Templates folder and place the 2 files in that folder. Restart the metatrader and open 2 1 hour charts of USD/CHF, right click on the window, select templates and assign one template to each window. The follow the rules.

Peter
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl peter ema no1.tpl   19 KB | 481 downloads
File Type: tpl peter sma no 2.tpl   19 KB | 449 downloads
  • #58
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:20am Feb 28, 2008 6:20am
250 pips down hope someone caught it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Feb. 28 12.18.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #59
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:21am Feb 29, 2008 9:21am
Peter -
Very curious why exactly you chose the Swissy to develop your strategy?

Most successful traders consider it one of the least volatile and favorites of the 3 or 4 Musketeers. As you mentioned, your system works well on the U/G too, but you kind of added that it seems as an after thought.

Not knocking your preferred choice, just trying to get in your mind-frame when you first started seeing this pair as your favorite to trade.
  • #60
  • Mar 1, 2008 7:02am Mar 1, 2008 7:02am
Quoting Flamenco143
Peter -
Very curious why exactly you chose the Swissy to develop your strategy?

Most successful traders consider it one of the least volatile and favorites of the 3 or 4 Musketeers. As you mentioned, your system works well on the U/G too, but you kind of added that it seems as an after thought.

Not knocking your preferred choice, just trying to get in your mind-frame when you first started seeing this pair as your favorite to trade.

Dear Flamenco,

Thankyou for your interest. I posted this system as a swissy as this is the only pair where i am satisfied with the stoploss, profit target and money managament system. I wish for the day that I could trade higher volatile pairs with the same success as this one. I am currently working on GBP/JPY and GBP/USD as well and trying to perfect the SL, PT and MM with them. They need much bigger stoplosses ofcourse, but still I am not satisfied with what I acheived so far; I am currently using many methods of SL and PT on all time frames to determine which has the highest level of success and consistency with the rules I will put for them, as well as filtering.

I invite anybody who can help in this or different currency pairs to please give us their views.

Thankyou all.

Peter
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