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Drawing correct resistance and support-lines

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  • #161
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:15am Feb 21, 2008 10:15am
What do you think about this one? Seems to be fine by me. Valid also... On GBP/JPY we are already on the way up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #162
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:35am Feb 21, 2008 10:35am
It seems to me that UJ is ranging between 107.50 - 108.30. So long at 107.60 is probably ok. The range is pretty tight, so I wonder how long that is going to hold before breakout? A couple of days more? Any news ahead?

Quoting MarkGavalda
What do you think about this one? Seems to be fine by me. Valid also... On GBP/JPY we are already on the way up...
  • #163
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:42am Feb 21, 2008 10:42am
hi all, jus wanna sharez my trade. i jus pulled the trigger not long ago. initially the price broke the upper trendline and rallied upwards, at ard somewhere near 212 it faces res and confusion. then it retraces a bit and found support at my SR line of 212.67, and the upper trendline it previously broke act as a support too. i entered when stoc was ovsold and when it was abt to cross upward @210.80. i did not wait till it cross upward totally. i set very tight sl @ 210.45 which is 35pips and my 1st tp is my next sr line of 211.21, and if it gets there 2nd tp is 211.50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Gd trades for u too!
  • #164
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:59am Feb 21, 2008 10:59am
Quoting yuna
hi all, jus wanna sharez my trade. i jus pulled the trigger not long ago. initially the price broke the upper trendline and rallied upwards, at ard somewhere near 212 it faces res and confusion. then it retraces a bit and found support at my SR line of 212.67, and the upper trendline it previously broke act as a support too. i entered when stoc was ovsold and when it was abt to cross upward @210.80. i did not wait till it cross upward totally. i set very tight sl @ 210.45 which is 35pips and my 1st tp is my next sr line of 211.21, and if it gets there 2nd tp is 211.50
Attachment
Gd trades for u too!

Sharp eyes, good analysis! It already payed you very well as I see! Keep it up!

edit:
ps: I think you don't need any indicators to trade this way, they just take some precious screen space away the sooner you learn to trade w/o them is the better.
  • #165
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:10am Feb 21, 2008 11:10am
Quoting Rocroy
The trade you proposed turned out a success! Price is moving down to that 50 fib line (it seems that my fib is larger than yours and 50 line thus lower), and it probably bounces back up from supporting tl. Good job!

Be ready to go long at the tl!



Attachment
Late answer, my internet-connection felt down out of the blue !

This retracement didn't pay too much attention to fib levels. The strange thing, looking at the 4h, it hit almost to the pip on 61.8 And look at usd/jpy !

I'm not taking this long guys, price action seems so suspicious and, as said above, price felt harder than I had expected. If you have longs open make sure to lock in profit, looks like anything could happen. Also I just don't like having trades open after london close. This is just my rules
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #166
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:10am Feb 21, 2008 11:10am
Quoting aediaz1
I see some traders are shorting chf now, but be very careful! At first eye-look it looks nice, but at closer look its not ! Price have established outside resistance and price action is ticking for the upside. Also see that eur/usd fail to break our upper target and have just broken a support aiming downward (good to know since they go opposite way) . I see a long potential here usd/chf. But remember, there is a chance of failure in my analyzes !
Technically speaking what do you think now, and how would you explain (if possible) this move? To be honest I don't have a clue Shorting CHF at upper resistance after failed BO is OK but i really didn't expect it to fall this much... :-/
  • #167
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:13am Feb 21, 2008 11:13am
Quoting MarkGavalda
Sharp eyes, good analysis! It already payed you very well as I see! Keep it up!

edit:
ps: I think you don't need any indicators to trade this way, they just take some precious screen space away the sooner you learn to trade w/o them is the better.
Thanks for the compliment Mark! but i do not really deserve it as i'm still new and green in the world of fx.

Yea, that's what i eventually want to do: jus using only price action to trade. but that comes with experience. i currently use ind to define entry. i still dunno how to define a gd entry without the help of ind.

Any tips on how to define a gd entry without ind? i know this question depends on the situation, but generally?

Thanks,
Yuna
  • #168
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:17am Feb 21, 2008 11:17am
Quoting Rocroy
I'm often using trendlines, which give you an alarm, when price comes close to the line. The distance when the alarm triggers is 2-3 pips (if I remember right, the distance can adjusted?).

In any case, these tls are like indicators, and you just insert them into indicators folder of your mt4. These are useful if you for instance do not want to set SL, you can set an alarming tl instead.

R

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Thanks ,those could help out ! gonna give them a try !
Measure twice, cut once
  • #169
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:25am Feb 21, 2008 11:25am
Quoting MarkGavalda
Technically speaking what do you think now, and how would you explain (if possible) this move? To be honest I don't have a clue Shorting CHF at upper resistance after failed BO is OK but i really didn't expect it to fall this much... :-/
Well the dollar had some sellings after this US data signal recession again.

And the eur/usd finally broke through the resistance-line I had drawn, but thanks to my internet connection I could not trade it. take a look at eur now seems like this resistance-line is valid and that could make chf go back up again if eur reverses. Price landed on 100% fibo now on chf, so technically speaking, again, price should reverse. But market seems crazy like now, trade with caution !

As we speak, chf is falling more. I'm staying out
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #170
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:33am Feb 21, 2008 11:33am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Oh Dear! i was stop out at 210.45. price nearly hit my tp @211.20 but reverses when close to tt.
did i set my sl too tight? or probably tt was jus a bad trade, lol. opinions on my trades are welcomed!

Yuna
  • #171
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:36am Feb 21, 2008 11:36am
This is 1 of the days being technical trader can be hard. All this selling of dollar is caused by news, no drawing or indicator could forecast it.

But I feel ready for a turnover on eurusd. Facing strong resistance right now.
Lets see if it could form a resistance-drawing point.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #172
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:37am Feb 21, 2008 11:37am
Quoting yuna
Attachment Oh Dear! i was stop out at 210.45. price nearly hit my tp @211.20 but reverses when close to tt.
did i set my sl too tight? or probably tt was jus a bad trade, lol. opinions on my trades are welcomed!

Yuna
You should always have a protective S/L when you're in the green with 20+ pips... IMO.
And also there was a reverse candle on your chart it's clearly visible that was a good sign that maybe a reversal is coming. Don't forget the number 1 rule: break even is always better than a loss!!! There's always a tomorrow
  • #173
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:38am Feb 21, 2008 11:38am
Quoting yuna
Attachment Oh Dear! i was stop out at 210.45. price nearly hit my tp @211.20 but reverses when close to tt.
did i set my sl too tight? or probably tt was jus a bad trade, lol. opinions on my trades are welcomed!

Yuna
As told in a earlier post you should have locked in your profit. Don't make a winning trade turn bad. This is VERY important. Lock in at break even when u hit +20 or so.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #174
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:38am Feb 21, 2008 11:38am
Quoting aediaz1
But I feel ready for a turnover on eurusd. Facing strong resistance right now.
Lets see if it could form a resistance-drawing point.
I'm already short on eur/usd with a very light position at 1.4807 targeting 38% of today. We'll see.
  • #175
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:45am Feb 21, 2008 11:45am
Quoting MarkGavalda
I'm already short on eur/usd with a very light position at 1.4807 targeting 38% of today. We'll see.
I was tempted, but PA is ticking slowly against us. Remember that price have broken yesterdays high, making alot of investors to buy. But, it all breaks down to if this resistance holds or not.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #176
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:56am Feb 21, 2008 11:56am
Quoting MarkGavalda
You should always have a protective S/L when you're in the green with 20+ pips... IMO.
And also there was a reverse candle on your chart it's clearly visible that was a good sign that maybe a reversal is coming. Don't forget the number 1 rule: break even is always better than a loss!!! There's always a tomorrow
Okae, thanks mark and aediaz1 for the feedback. i learnt tt
i should set sl at break even when i have positive 20+, i neglected the sign of reversal candle and, when tt candle closes at 211 i still have 20+ pips, should have lock in.

Yuna
  • #177
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:59am Feb 21, 2008 11:59am
Hi all,

here's my chart with g/u and some down trandline, what do you think - will it holds??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #178
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:01pm Feb 21, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting MarkGavalda
Nope I was just curious, I did short the USD/CHF though the idea behind it was that it's a win-win situation: if I lose money that's the fee I have to pay for my superficial analysis and t remember not to do it again and if I can have some pips than it's simply awesome. And I had +15pips (down to 50% then I quit) so thanks for your help mate!

And your geppy analysis (possible upside B.O. based on PA) was truly professional. I really hope you jumped the bandwagon in time it's a lot of money now! 122pips since the breakout
You must had a nice run with the chf today
Measure twice, cut once
  • #179
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:17pm Feb 21, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting magictrader
Hi all,

here's my chart with g/u and some down trandline, what do you think - will it holds??
Hard to tell right now, as market is wild. This is the only chart I have with proper r/s. Resistance is getting heavily tested right now. Might look for a break soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 22 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #180
  • Edited 3:33pm Feb 21, 2008 1:40pm | Edited 3:33pm
I had too much time after my eur/usd short closed out on s/l (might have been too tight s/l but the position was so light that i really don't care about it at all, usually counter trend trading is not my style.. and it seems today isn't gonna change that ) so I checked out a few other charts as well. A very risky but 60-70% okay entry is developing on the CHF/JPY H1 charts.
Notice the continuous breaks of the tls so be careful. The strong red horizontal line is the daily R1 for today, so we have a double res. at current area... It might give us a few extra pips tomorrow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpyh1-02-21-2008--2035.jpg Size: 176 KB
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