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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #841
  • Feb 20, 2008 8:12am Feb 20, 2008 8:12am
Hi, looks like a bearish Diamond on Daily - the bearish movement might be supported by the resistance-trendline starting from the middle of the year 2007.

Of course the right triangle of the diamond might still change.

What's your opinion on that ?
Attached Image
  • #842
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:17am Feb 20, 2008 9:17am
Quoting ernesto
Hi, looks like a bearish Diamond on Daily - the bearish movement might be supported by the resistance-trendline starting from the middle of the year 2007.

Of course the right triangle of the diamond might still change.

What's your opinion on that ?
The pattern does look somehow symmetrical, but it is missing some of the components that define a diamond. The lack of broadening triangle on the left side and the absense of a narrowing triangle on the right argue for something different than a diamond. So far the only ideal diamond in progress can be seen on EUR/CHF daily charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily EURCHF A0-FX.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #843
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:31am Feb 20, 2008 10:31am
Quoting Igrok
The pattern does look somehow symmetrical, but it is missing some of the components that define a diamond. The lack of broadening triangle on the left side and the absense of a narrowing triangle on the right argue for something different than a diamond. So far the only ideal diamond in progress can be seen on EUR/CHF daily charts.
Thanks a lot for your quick response !

Regarding the EUR/CHF... when looking at such a diamond setup - would it once again go down to the right lower trendline or directly break out?

Are there any tiny characteristics that give some hints about that?

In my opinion it goes down again and offers a perfect buying opportunity....
  • #844
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:04am Feb 20, 2008 11:04am
Quoting ernesto
Thanks a lot for your quick response !

Regarding the EUR/CHF... when looking at such a diamond setup - would it once again go down to the right lower trendline or directly break out?

Are there any tiny characteristics that give some hints about that?

In my opinion it goes down again and offers a perfect buying opportunity....
I don't know how it will look inside the diamond eventually but in this case it should rather become a continuation pattern to target 1.63-64 zone after a break out.
  • #845
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:24pm Feb 20, 2008 1:24pm
Another "try" - what's your opinion on the attached 1 Hour - GBPUSD Continuation Diamond ?

Is it valid or are there any reasons why you wouldn't consider a trade of the breakout?
Attached Image
  • #846
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:39pm Feb 20, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting ernesto
Another "try" - what's your opinion on the attached 1 Hour - GBPUSD Continuation Diamond ?

Is it valid or are there any reasons why you wouldn't consider a trade of the breakout?
The way it looks now it is not a diamond. It may still become one on two conditions: it has to get to 1.9800 from here first and then it should take some time trading inside the range between 1.98 and 1.95.
  • #847
  • Feb 20, 2008 7:44pm Feb 20, 2008 7:44pm
Quoting Igrok
I don't know how it will look inside the diamond eventually but in this case it should rather become a continuation pattern to target 1.63-64 zone after a break out.
It appears to have broken out, but did so during an inactive time of day. I am not certain if that should be taken into consideration.

EURUSD is close to breaking out of the diamond mentioned in post #790.
  • #848
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:44pm Feb 20, 2008 10:44pm
Quoting Snuffleupagus
It appears to have broken out, but did so during an inactive time of day. I am not certain if that should be taken into consideration.

EURUSD is close to breaking out of the diamond mentioned in post #790.
It's a daily chart showing this diamond. So, it doesn't matter what was the time of the day when the break occured.

The pattern on EUR/USD isn't complete yet. The way I see it, a move to 1.4820 is a must and to 1.49 is probable.
  • #849
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:49am Feb 21, 2008 4:49am
Hi, for single diamonds I think I understood the criteria used to determine the highest probability of the direction of the breakout.

Are there similar hints for double-diamonds like we have it in EurUSD at the moment?

And another thing I am not totally sure about: is it mandatory that the left and the right corner of a diamond are on the same vertical level?

Again thanks for your precious help !
  • #850
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:43am Feb 21, 2008 10:43am
Quoting ernesto
Hi, for single diamonds I think I understood the criteria used to determine the highest probability of the direction of the breakout.

Are there similar hints for double-diamonds like we have it in EurUSD at the moment?

And another thing I am not totally sure about: is it mandatory that the left and the right corner of a diamond are on the same vertical level?

Again thanks for your precious help !
I have already answered those questions here before. There are some hints for dual-diagonaled diamonds as well. The direction of the breakout depends on the sequence of the moves inside the right part of the diamond when it formes its minor diagonals. But those are not easy for me to explain as they can be seen in numerous different shapes, each of which has its own specific reading.

The corners on the left and on the right are not always on the same vertical level.
  • #851
  • Edited 3:54pm Feb 21, 2008 3:35pm | Edited 3:54pm
There is an interesting pattern on USD/CHF daily chart. Some may identify it as a potential inverted H&S formation while in fact it looks more like another diamond in progress. On this chart the red line represents a potential neck-line of the inverted H&S while the green lines outline potential borders of the dual-diagonaled diamond.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily CHF A0-FX.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #852
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:40pm Feb 21, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting Igrok
There is an interesting pattern on USD/CHF daily chart. Some may identify it as a potential inverted H&S formation while in fact it looks more like another diamond in progress. On this chart the red line represents a potential neck-line of the inverted H&S while the green lines outline potential borders of the dual-diagonaled diamond.
Is there a reason drawing the USD/CHF diamond the way you did it and I should take care of in the future ?

Another possible drawing (the way I had it) would be the attached one - breakout already happened in this scenario....
Attached Image
  • #853
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:58pm Feb 21, 2008 8:58pm
Quoting ernesto
Is there a reason drawing the USD/CHF diamond the way you did it and I should take care of in the future ?

Another possible drawing (the way I had it) would be the attached one - breakout already happened in this scenario....

Too close to the corner.
  • #854
  • Feb 21, 2008 9:11pm Feb 21, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting Igrok
Too close to the corner.

Just in this example though right?

If there was a diamond clearly formed and it was bouncing between diagonals getting tighter and tighter, the breakout would be stronger?
  • #855
  • Feb 21, 2008 9:25pm Feb 21, 2008 9:25pm
Quoting Blackinc
Just in this example though right?

If there was a diamond clearly formed and it was bouncing between diagonals getting tighter and tighter, the breakout would be stronger?
The closer to the right corner and tighter the range - the lesser is the probability for a good follow-through on the breakout.
  • #856
  • Feb 22, 2008 1:08pm Feb 22, 2008 1:08pm
Completely ignoring my current (personal) USD sentiment I would interpret the situation in USDCHF as very good opportunity to enter long (no call - just for discussion of interpretation !!!).

Reasons I could figure out

* Diamond with diagonal pointing down => breakout should be up
* Very symmetric within diamond - therefore 1.084 might be good support at the right side because it was also on the left side.
* Harmonic Pattern
* WolfWave ?!?! (not sure about that)
but... target would match with Fibonacci and strong resistance line

Any comment how analysis could be improved? Glad for every hint you can give...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF-Diamond_20080222_RE.JPG Size: 69 KB
  • #857
  • Feb 22, 2008 3:20pm Feb 22, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting ernesto
Completely ignoring my current (personal) USD sentiment I would interpret the situation in USDCHF as very good opportunity to enter long (no call - just for discussion of interpretation !!!).

Reasons I could figure out

* Diamond with diagonal pointing down => breakout should be up
* Very symmetric within diamond - therefore 1.084 might be good support at the right side because it was also on the left side.
* Harmonic Pattern
* WolfWave ?!?! (not sure about that)
but... target would match with Fibonacci and strong resistance line

Any comment how analysis could be improved? Glad for every hint you can give...
This is indeed the most likely scenario and the reasons sound reasonable to me.)))) It might however get a bit lower than 1.0830-40 initially as the diamond does have not one but two main diagonals with their tops being a little bit uneven.
  • #858
  • Feb 22, 2008 4:06pm Feb 22, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting Igrok
This is indeed the most likely scenario and the reasons sound reasonable to me.)))) It might however get a bit lower than 1.0830-40 initially as the diamond does have not one but two main diagonals with their tops being a little bit uneven.
Wow... have to learn a lot... very very impressive! What would be interesting to me and maybe you can answer somehow. In this case - do you solely rely on the diamond + trend lines itself or do you also add other "tools" like harmonic patterns, elliot waves, fibbonacci and so on.

Just to get a feeling in which direction to put my efforts into...
  • #859
  • Feb 22, 2008 5:40pm Feb 22, 2008 5:40pm
BTW... because of the correlation between USD/CHF and EUR/USD and the EUR/USD pattern shown in this post the assumptions made for USD/CHF become more probably in my opinion.

EUR/USD might go down pretty soon... and USD/CHF might go up... hmm... lets see...

Unfortunately I feel not yet very sure about EUR/USD setup itself... but... together with USD/CHF the overall picture makes me a little bit confident.

BTW... reading all your posts I could figure out that you trade USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD. Any others? Is there a reason for choosing exactly those pairs? "Missing" the Yen pairs - but... there might be some intention behind...
Attached Image
  • #860
  • Feb 22, 2008 6:05pm Feb 22, 2008 6:05pm
Sorry for spamming your thread - but... another question/idea regarding average daily ranges where I currently use the last 25 days for calculation.

a) do you think using 25 days is appropriate?

b) would it make sense to change the calculation to average the last x days based on the day of the week. As far as I could analyze there might be differences between trading Mondays/Fridays compared to Tuesdays/Wednesdays/Thursdays. I would appreciate any opinion on that...

Many thanks in advance...
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