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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #5,741
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:57am Feb 20, 2008 9:57am
DOW is off and this pair is not going up look for a down trend today, stoping somewhere in the 107.50 range.
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #5,742
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:14am Feb 20, 2008 10:14am
Short, TP 107.63, S/L 108.35
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,743
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:46am Feb 20, 2008 11:46am
CPI came in higher than expected, althought effect limited.

USDJPY traded up to 108.35 before finding offers, although I believe the 108.30 swing high is exceeded and call for a 108.62 test and break later (tomorrow) towards 109.00/109.50

I will still favour buying on dips.
  • #5,744
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:33pm Feb 20, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting CounterTrend
USDJPY traded up to 108.35 before finding offers, although I believe the 108.30 swing high is exceeded and call for a 108.62 test and break later (tomorrow) towards 109.00/109.50
I know it got to 835, hit my S/L right on the pip. I guess tight is not always good.. I'm short again aiming for 770 with S/L at 840 this time. Looks like a fakeout and E/U is gathering upwards momentum, hope so at least.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,745
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:57pm Feb 20, 2008 12:57pm
In this type of market, both shorts and longs win.

TO be honest, shorts will take the big ride after this spark which (should) exceed 109.

Position traders are short now, but short term traders are long.
I am watching for a NY close near 108.20 to reassure a test of 108.62

A close below 108 is not that negative though.
What is your thoughts?

Bulls: Come in, tell me your though, express your idea, your tp, your stop level, and strategy for tomorrow maybe.

  • #5,746
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:39pm Feb 20, 2008 1:39pm
It faked a break up a few times already, E/Y is at or right past but still close to major S/R, E/U is going up.. what makes you so sure it will go up ?
One thing's for sure, that triangle is getting really tight, so little time left to see the break.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,747
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:16pm Feb 20, 2008 2:16pm
I am not so sure. I apply simple technical ideas into chart and try to see some prospects over its movement.

I will tell you my reasons to go long in the short term:

1. Choppy reaction from 104.95 bottom does not say rally has completed only at 38 fib, so it might extend to trendline resistance plus fibo resistance around 110 before resuming a much broader downtrend. Last two swings showed usdjpy always retraced 50% + trendline resistance to resume broader downtrend. This condition lasts true as long as you consider 104.95 a bottom in place in the short term.

2. COT data suggest yen was overbought and clearing its overbought extremes which signals a shift in short term outlook from bullish yen to bearish yen. I didn't invent the data, the cot report is available to everyone. It's very unlikely that we are resuming the broader trend before it clears its overbought levels as a result. This is what the cot data assume, again not me who says it.

3. The drop from 108.62 was corrective not impulsive. So it is not the beginning of an impulse wave into a bearish trend. rather a corrective move into the short term uptrend.

Those are my reasons, and hope you respect them.
Still, a very short term trade, and probably short lived spike up. Do not want to influence any trading decision you take.
  • #5,748
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:57pm Feb 20, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting CounterTrend
I am not so sure. I apply simple technical ideas into chart and try to see some prospects over its movement.

I will tell you my reasons to go long in the short term:

1. Choppy reaction from 104.95 bottom does not say rally has completed only at 38 fib, so it might extend to trendline resistance plus fibo resistance around 110 before resuming a much broader downtrend. Last two swings showed usdjpy always retraced 50% + trendline resistance to resume broader downtrend. This condition lasts true as long as you consider 104.95 a bottom in place in the short term.

2. COT data suggest yen was overbought and clearing its overbought extremes which signals a shift in short term outlook from bullish yen to bearish yen. I didn't invent the data, the cot report is available to everyone. It's very unlikely that we are resuming the broader trend before it clears its overbought levels as a result. This is what the cot data assume, again not me who says it.

3. The drop from 108.62 was corrective not impulsive. So it is not the beginning of an impulse wave into a bearish trend. rather a corrective move into the short term uptrend.

Those are my reasons, and hope you respect them.
Still, a very short term trade, and probably short lived spike up. Do not want to influence any trading decision you take.

north or south, but one thing is totally clear - UJ is fu***ing hard to broke that resistance
My system is showing overbought territory, im thinking in short for about 30 pips till 107.80
  • #5,749
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:03pm Feb 20, 2008 3:03pm
Well, it briefly broke it you know. Some, or many people stopped out with those 5 pips you know

I think real offers are 108.50+ ..yes, it's little overbought, should try to dip before continuing if thats the case.

Or better yet, it might consolidate above 108 (small odds hehe )
  • #5,750
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:04pm Feb 20, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting sDRs
north or south, but one thing is totally clear - UJ is fu***ing hard to broke that resistance
My system is showing overbought territory, im thinking in short for about 30 pips till 107.80

Remember, carry traders who love interest like things to go up and slowly.. not in one rush move. I doubt the old days will come back, but maybe short-lived ones
  • #5,751
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:19pm Feb 20, 2008 3:19pm
Quality research CT, kudos I'm just saying I wouldn't enter any position outside that triangle before there's a serious break. Good luck with catching it once it does
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,752
  • Feb 20, 2008 5:11pm Feb 20, 2008 5:11pm
Just my 2 cents. Playing triangles breakouts last month on usdjpy proved to be a loss-loss situation. Even if it breaks outside it, I would take cautious as many fake breaks come.. just like the 108.62 spike and no-follow through progress.
  • #5,753
  • Feb 20, 2008 6:14pm Feb 20, 2008 6:14pm
Looks like udsjpy have entered a nice bullish run, technically.

Also, take notice how fib and earlier resistance, now support confirms a really strong support around 108. If this area fails to support, we could target lower part of this wedge. If it holds we could see a 30-35pip move to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 35 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #5,754
  • Feb 20, 2008 7:27pm Feb 20, 2008 7:27pm
i would wait till 108.55/60 to break first and hold to go long.
all this few days UJ just bouncing inside 23.6-38.2 fibo like maniac.
resistance still at 108.55/60 and support at 107.15-106.66.
few days just good for scalpers speciality.
  • #5,755
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:31pm Feb 20, 2008 9:31pm
True. USDJPY has been perfect for quick in-out traders. It moved about 100 pips only in 10 pips range or so due to FOMC release.

But once it catches a trend it will be fine. It is a correction maybe thats why its so choppy looking in a bigger picture.
  • #5,756
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:59am Feb 21, 2008 12:59am
Morning guys,

I see an uptrend channel from February 18th on hourly chart. If UJ will cross it will be @ 108.05, then downwards movement for at least half of the day and I just took one long at the bottom.
  • #5,757
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:41am Feb 21, 2008 1:41am
Support is very firm at 107.80 and 107.50/20 I think support will hold for a 108.62 break.

But if by this end of week usd jpy didn't make a strong weekly close or made it to 109 I will fold any long position.

True, I can see that uptrend channel, i think its support at 107.60 and getting higher.
  • #5,758
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:06am Feb 21, 2008 8:06am
man the view still same unless the resistance or support broke this pair will go no where. the fundamental outlook is mixed. waiting more fundamental outcome. short time terms bias is small bullish in this pair. thats what i see for few weeks till now.
  • #5,759
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:41am Feb 21, 2008 10:41am
indeed. its slightly bullish. very slow bullish development on weekly charts. I still believe the recent high will be exceeded when? no clue. but now we are at really critical support and previous low at .50 hope it supports or i may exit.

By the way it does look as if usdjpy tracks dow in the downside only. this is weird given there had to be plenty of bids in 107.50 to take pair to 107.90 at least. hm, anyway..waiting
  • #5,760
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:08am Feb 21, 2008 11:08am
I think this pair is just range trading. Its playing around with support areas near 107.25 to 107.50, and then jumping back to play with resistance levels near 108.10 to 108.50 area. Unless there is a breakout in one direction, I think its best to range play this pair for right now. Long at 107.60 PT 108.1 and SL 107.20.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
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