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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #5,721
  • Feb 19, 2008 3:45am Feb 19, 2008 3:45am
Quoting CounterTrend
Hm.. it was not supposed to do that when the fall from 108.62 has been corrective not impulsive. Something is wrong, I still maintain bullish bias as long as 107.25 holds.

107.50 is 38 fib level, and retracement of UJ should be finished with going up
  • #5,722
  • Feb 19, 2008 3:56am Feb 19, 2008 3:56am
it's still in range. lets see if it will test double bottom (hourlies) on 107.25
  • #5,723
  • Feb 19, 2008 5:04am Feb 19, 2008 5:04am
Quoting CounterTrend
it's still in range. lets see if it will test double bottom (hourlies) on 107.25
Support holds.
  • #5,724
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:22pm Feb 19, 2008 1:22pm
Indeed. support in the low 107 area made a modest rebound for now.

Well, the picture is getting more ugly over time.

Let us put it clear..

According to cot, traders are not likely to be ready to push to new trend lows (104.95) at this time. I believe yen is still overbought.

However, 108.60 is a medium-term resistance, and 108.30 hourly tops cap the recent rally attempts. (maybe 3 times?)..

With that being said, 107.00/25 band has held recent downside pressure.

Right now, I believe usdjpy is trapped in a higher range with upside breakout on cards to 110

One condition must resist though USDJPY should not be dragged under 106.

I'd favour the downside after recent rally failures, but positioning in the market does not say it will break down so soon.

So i am staying neutral.
  • #5,725
  • Feb 19, 2008 3:04pm Feb 19, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting CounterTrend
Indeed. support in the low 107 area made a modest rebound for now.

Well, the picture is getting more ugly over time.

Let us put it clear..

According to cot, traders are not likely to be ready to push to new trend lows (104.95) at this time. I believe yen is still overbought.

However, 108.60 is a medium-term resistance, and 108.30 hourly tops cap the recent rally attempts. (maybe 3 times?)..

With that being said, 107.00/25 band has held recent downside pressure.

Right now, I believe usdjpy is trapped in a higher range with upside breakout on cards to 110

One condition must resist though USDJPY should not be dragged under 106.

I'd favour the downside after recent rally failures, but positioning in the market does not say it will break down so soon.

So i am staying neutral.
I have tp @ 108.00, after that im going to wait for breakout of resistance at 108.30, 108.60, if so - long for 100 pips, otherwise short from 108.30 if it fails to cross.

GJ is expected to head till 213, then 217 in mid term, so it will drag UJ with itself, in these conditions - uptrend is available.

Tommorows MPC meetings will be important.

Lets hope for the best, but expext worse Good luck in trade
  • #5,726
  • Feb 19, 2008 4:18pm Feb 19, 2008 4:18pm
Thank you. I initiated fresh longs as market closed high with modest rebound.

I target 109, and stop 106.90

Pretty wide stop, I hope the consolidation will be contained in this range until we get that 109.

By the way, GBP is oversold according to cot data, I highly suspect a return of GBP carry against yen and chf sooner than later.

I think GBP is bottoming out near term at 1.9400 level against dollar too.
But lets see.

I think buying usdjpy on dips proving to be efficient, I mean friday's made a modest 100 pip bounce off support, now we are up like 60 pips on this rebound.

I think buying slips on usdjpy will pay out until we reach a serious resistance at 109/110 band. But.. who knows?
  • #5,727
  • Feb 19, 2008 4:21pm Feb 19, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting CounterTrend
Thank you. I initiated fresh longs as market closed high with modest rebound.

I target 109, and stop 106.90

Pretty wide stop, I hope the consolidation will be contained in this range until we get that 109.

By the way, GBP is oversold according to cot data, I highly suspect a return of GBP carry against yen and chf sooner than later.

I think GBP is bottoming out near term at 1.9400 level against dollar too.
But lets see.

I think buying usdjpy on dips proving to be efficient, I mean friday's made a modest 100 pip bounce off support, now we are up like 60 pips on this rebound.

I think buying slips on usdjpy will pay out until we reach a serious resistance at 109/110 band. But.. who knows?
I would be careful in going long. This rebound we saw was due to HP reporting earnings, otherwise, I expect to see some downside.

Good Luck to everyone!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,728
  • Feb 19, 2008 5:46pm Feb 19, 2008 5:46pm
i got long from 107.50 , tp= 108.60 ( first more important resistant) in next week or 2 i think we will see price in vicinity 110-110.85

more good things & little lucky
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"..buy gossips, sell facts.."
  • #5,729
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:46pm Feb 19, 2008 6:46pm
i think ill wait till 108.55/60 broken and hold then we can safely open long even we are at the upside of broken triangle.

Quoting lukaszm
i got long from 107.50 , tp= 108.60 ( first more important resistant) in next week or 2 i think we will see price in vicinity 110-110.85

more good things & little lucky
  • #5,730
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:02pm Feb 19, 2008 7:02pm
Indeed the upside was due to bonds rally. but technically usdjpy should not accelerate down until 110 or trendline resistance is faced.

I mean technically, it should not go down. So the downside you expect and the downside you see already is a response to rumors of Yuan rate-hike and usd broad weakness, and risk aversion.

But there are reasons for it to go up. The opposite thing, USDJPY have retraced 50% of each previous leg from 124 peak. Until now it retraced 38% only.

The drop from 38% medium term resistance was in A B C shape not 1-2-3-4-5. So its corrective to a larger rebound.

Just my 2 cents, anything is possible in this market.
  • #5,731
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:03pm Feb 19, 2008 7:03pm
Quoting agung85
i think ill wait till 108.55/60 broken and hold then we can safely open long even we are at the upside of broken triangle.
I do not think there will be much left for longs after this breakout if it happened.

The NY close left studies ticking higher...but lets see 108 now offers are capping market.

If it continues to cap, usdjpy can return to 107.50..and fast
  • #5,732
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:39pm Feb 19, 2008 9:39pm
Last chance. 108.60 breakout or no forever. I think its the pair last chance to validate the upside breakout as 108 initial resistance gave up.

Two tops ahead 108.30 and 108.60
  • #5,733
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:49am Feb 20, 2008 1:49am
Quoting CounterTrend
Last chance. 108.60 breakout or no forever. I think its the pair last chance to validate the upside breakout as 108 initial resistance gave up.

Two tops ahead 108.30 and 108.60
Well... maybe not forever

Guys, remember that GJ is draging this pair, and in few hours period MPC minutes are coming, so don't take desicions right now.

My tp was hit at night ( + GMT 2 ) with 25 pips, and as I said yesterday - im going to wait for the news, then it will be clear. For more risky - maybe its good position to take long, becouse UJ is on 50 fib level, possible retracement for 20 pips at least.
  • #5,734
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:12am Feb 20, 2008 4:12am
I am expecting a further fall t0 107.23 at least. Lets see if monthly support will hold.
  • #5,735
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:35am Feb 20, 2008 4:35am
Buying dips is the dominating theme, and EURJPY bottoming out sharply at 158.

Ah, it could be carry day, but lets wait..
  • #5,736
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:52am Feb 20, 2008 4:52am
Looks like a top on 15 min chart, will wait for about an hour or two and if a nice stable fall starts then short at 75-80 area with about 20 pip stop.
Watching E/U and E/Y too, it could continue past 108...
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,737
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:55am Feb 20, 2008 4:55am
Quoting Jurrasic
Looks like a top on 15 min chart, will wait for about an hour or two and if a nice stable fall starts then short at 75-80 area with about 20 pip stop.
Watching E/U and E/Y too, it could continue past 108...
short myself as well... 108 is very dangerous. Will observe the market closely.
  • #5,738
  • Feb 20, 2008 5:15am Feb 20, 2008 5:15am
Quoting Alfista
short myself as well... 108 is very dangerous. Will observe the market closely.
Not yet.. it's too soon I think..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #5,739
  • Feb 20, 2008 6:27am Feb 20, 2008 6:27am
Actually, it is only minor resistance at 108. The strong resistance comes in 108.30-108.60
I believe it is dragged by Euro/Yen selling pressure (after euro showed waning sharply)

CPI next in line, a high number can spark a rally to 108.30 at least I believe,
anything else -- I'd say in range, with bias to upside.

Hope it comes good for usd.
  • #5,740
  • Feb 20, 2008 7:38am Feb 20, 2008 7:38am
CPI comes higher. lets see what happened.

Quoting CounterTrend
Actually, it is only minor resistance at 108. The strong resistance comes in 108.30-108.60
I believe it is dragged by Euro/Yen selling pressure (after euro showed waning sharply)

CPI next in line, a high number can spark a rally to 108.30 at least I believe,
anything else -- I'd say in range, with bias to upside.

Hope it comes good for usd.
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