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  • #4,361
  • Feb 15, 2008 12:03pm Feb 15, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
It seems it wants to drop further today!
BEWARE LONGS!
It can't! I'm still cleaning my shorts from last drop!:surprised

Actually the greatest day in a week! Finally closed my last longs from a week ago and almost made 7% for the day!Only open a little 1k long AUD/USD, let it ride.
  • #4,362
  • Feb 15, 2008 8:27pm Feb 15, 2008 8:27pm
Looks like a pinbar on the h1 charts right at the fib. If you do a fib for the ranging period it looks like it looks like it's coming from the 75 and just passed the 38.2 line. It's tested the 38.2 several times and failed to break below it, so if I had to guess I'd say it's heading to the 23.6 at around 1.4740. No idea if it'll break thru and reach the resistance at the top... but I suspect it break and start heading there over the course of the next few days.

I'm long till 1.4740, have an alert right before that and will take a look and see if it gets broken. If it does... I think you can expect 1.4870 in the next 2 or 3 weeks.
  • #4,363
  • Feb 15, 2008 9:16pm Feb 15, 2008 9:16pm
really thinking usd was going to recover but it looks like not possible.
usa is in deep trouble and even fed is thinking in cutting rates at next meeting.

maybe what some say its true, we going 1.60 and above. also ecb seem to not matter about this exchane rate. they have a strong mercantilism in europe. true some industries can suffer but at least consumers would not pay the tax of having us dollars, in inflation. which right now is crazy...
  • #4,364
  • Feb 15, 2008 9:42pm Feb 15, 2008 9:42pm
Quoting acidguy
really thinking usd was going to recover but it looks like not possible.
usa is in deep trouble and even fed is thinking in cutting rates at next meeting.

maybe what some say its true, we going 1.60 and above. also ecb seem to not matter about this exchane rate. they have a strong mercantilism in europe. true some industries can suffer but at least consumers would not pay the tax of having us dollars, in inflation. which right now is crazy...
I think your comments about the fed's plans are slightly off, look at these statements out yesterday:

"Fed's Mishkin: Financial disruption poses substantial downside risk to growth outlook; Should take back easing once recovery is established

- Energy Prices, Falling Dollar Pose Inflation Risk, Any rise in price expectations will pose concern; "cannot be complacent" about price expectations

- must be ready to raise rates if sees significant rise in inflation expectations; Fed will act decisively to balance economic risks

- Notes Fed policy exhibited less gradualism, will continue to act 'decisively' on rates" <- this goes both ways, cuts or hikes!

This is a pretty hawkish statement. They tend to be hawkish after a cut, ofcourse a cut is still possible, but inflation is a concern. Overall probably not much more room to go for more aggressive cuts. On the other hand, April fed funds futures has priced in a 40% chance for a 75bp cut.

Just too soon to tell what the fed is going to do, if anything at all
  • #4,365
  • Feb 16, 2008 12:06am Feb 16, 2008 12:06am
Quoting bobblong
I think your comments about the fed's plans are slightly off, look at these statements out yesterday:

"Fed's Mishkin: Financial disruption poses substantial downside risk to growth outlook; Should take back easing once recovery is established

- Energy Prices, Falling Dollar Pose Inflation Risk, Any rise in price expectations will pose concern; "cannot be complacent" about price expectations

- must be ready to raise rates if sees significant rise in inflation expectations; Fed will act decisively to balance economic risks

- Notes Fed policy exhibited less gradualism, will continue to act 'decisively' on rates" <- this goes both ways, cuts or hikes!

This is a pretty hawkish statement. They tend to be hawkish after a cut, ofcourse a cut is still possible, but inflation is a concern. Overall probably not much more room to go for more aggressive cuts. On the other hand, April fed funds futures has priced in a 40% chance for a 75bp cut.

Just too soon to tell what the fed is going to do, if anything at all
In addition, the FED needs to be be preemptive, decisive and flexible. It means being prepared to take back some of that insurance in response to a recovery in financial markets or upward shift in inflation risks. Fed's Mishkin sees current disruptions as "substantial risk" to growth but one cannot be "complacent" about inflation expectations. Let us hear next week Fed speakers Stern as a current FOMC voter and retiring Poole from St. Louis to have at least an idea if they echoed Fed's Mishkin "hawkish" keynote speech yesterday!
  • #4,366
  • Feb 18, 2008 12:43am Feb 18, 2008 12:43am
H4
The pair is being traded in “a-a+” ascending correction channel. Bounce off the “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and, upon breaking the lower bound of “a-a+” trend, the beginning of a descending trend towards “M” trend line (the lower bound of the “triangle” shape). 1.4515 is the level of a minor resistance.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urusd%20h4.gif

Daily
The pair is being traded within the “triangle” shape (“M-M+” channel), I expect its breaking downwards (breaking of “M” trend line). It’s clearly seen by looking through the candles that the current ascending movement from “Y” trend line is correctional. Bounce off “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend to “M” trend line (1.4430), and upon its breaking, to trend lines “W” and “Q” (1.4290).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sd%20daily.gif

Weekly
Owing to the support from the “Q” trend line, the “triangle” shape has been formed (“M-M+” channel). Its lower bound “M” has to be broken, leading to the breaking of “E-E+” ascending trend and the movement towards “N” trend line (1.34/1.33).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...d%20weekly.gif

Monthly
The pair is over “Q” trend line, which, having offered support to the pair, gave a possibility for a turned “triangle” shape to be formed at the Weekly graph. Starting from the fact that at the Weekly graph a turned “triangle” shape has formed, and it has to be broken downwards, “E-E+” ascending trend will be broken also downwards and the pair will forward to “N” trend line (1.34/1.33). A correction to levels 1.42/1.43 is possible from this trend line. Further the descending movement will be amplified by relatively fine formed “double top” turned shape (“G-G+” channel). If this shape (“G” trend line) will be broken, EURUSD will go down to 1.1900.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...%20monthly.gif
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  • #4,367
  • Feb 18, 2008 1:02am Feb 18, 2008 1:02am
Quote

EUR/USD Update (8.58GMT):

Talk of predominantly East European and German names seen pushing EUR/USD sharply lower to intra day low of 1.4628 from 1.4675. The move seen largely the result of stop-loss hunting in a thin liquidity market, according to traders. Key support seen down around 1.4610/20.

MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK
· EURO/DOLLAR: "Back at the middle of the `triangle' within which prices have held since November. Expect a squeeze up to 1.4800 this week."

UBS
...

Src: http://www.goldessential.com/index.p...d=627&Itemid=1

Quote
EUR/USD) SHORT : 1.4666 - Obj: 1.4310 - Stp:1.4711

RES 3: 1.4850** (Feb 04 high )
TREND BIAS RES 2: 1.4785** (Feb 01 low )
1-Week Obj: NEUTRAL RES 1: 1.4735** (Jan 29 low )
4-Week Obj: DOWN to 1.4300 (07.40GMT SPOT 1.4682)
Conviction: SUP 1: 1.4615** (Feb 12 high)
1Wk: Weak: 4Wk: Weak SUP 2: 1.4550** (100-day MA)
SUP 3: 1.4530** (Feb 13 low)

(OVERVIEW) Recovery turning more significant with probe over 1.4670. Implies potential for 1.4785 even 1.4900/14970 zone. However conviction weak. Back under 1.4670/1.4635 toward close will imply failed push and below 1.4545 will confirm renewed bear for 1.4365/1.4280.
Below aims for 1.4085/1.4015 with focus on 1.38s.

(EUROPEAN SESSION FORECAST: HIGH: 1.4710 LOW 1.4650) Focused ...


Src: http://www.goldessential.com/index.p...d=624&Itemid=1
  • #4,368
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:10am Feb 18, 2008 2:10am
Quoting BoredToLoose
That's all Folks
1º - Because I am Stupid!
2º - Because I do not follow several times my trade plan.
3º - Because I am Stupid!
4º - Because it was Friday!
5º - Because I am Stupid!

Well guys now talking about Today.

Price is holding that channel from 1.4440/1.47. I am going to short around 1.4665 and go Long around 1.4580 but only to scalp about 15 pips.
Go Long only after 4 waves drop, we only saw 2, third can go around 1.4580 and fourth at 1.4530.
If 1.4600 resist Today so it is good time to long for further upside, wait until we have good pattern that price do not drop below 1.4585/1.46, we must see nice turn around around 1.4590.
I see further drop today and if 1.4580 is widely broken so that Daily Triangle with Resistance at 1.4430 will be next target.

Good Luck guys
  • #4,369
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:22am Feb 18, 2008 2:22am
maybe its time to buy it again...tp 20-50 pips,..maybe it might reach 61,80 high 1.49, and low 1.4444 fibo, before or if it retrace back to 145s,...

first its still a carry trade, and folks is still pricing in a rate cut,...second, the usa president has birthday today,...and he like to spend some usd to africa free aid,..or something ; xy BUSD,..thats bearish to me,...am long tp 1.4712, sl =20 pips...i might take it all at devils...
its just money
  • #4,370
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:26am Feb 18, 2008 2:26am
Quoting BoredToLoose
I have several signs, that maybe we will start next week with a nice drop, but it will need to close this week below 1.4630, not probable.
looks like we started with a nice drop indeed -- what signs were you having? because, honestly, for me this was a surprise and I had to close my long position prematurely.
  • #4,371
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:35am Feb 18, 2008 2:35am
Quoting digitil
looks like we started with a nice drop indeed -- what signs were you having? because, honestly, for me this was a surprise and I had to close my long position prematurely.
Here some of my Signs:
H4 did not cross one of my retrace lines.
Daily RSI at 50, could be a nice sign to a retrace.
Price reach 50%FIB 1.4440/1.4940.

PRICE WILL DROP TO 1.4585 VERY SOON!
1.4622 IT IS THE TRIGGER TO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF TODAY'S DROP
IF MY 5M SYSTEM IS RIGHT THIS IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN
  • #4,372
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:49am Feb 18, 2008 2:49am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Here some of my Signs:
H4 did not cross one of my retrace lines.
Daily RSI at 50, could be a nice sign to a retrace.
Price reach 50%FIB 1.4440/1.4940.

PRICE WILL DROP TO 1.4585 VERY SOON!
1.4622 IT IS THE TRIGGER TO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF TODAY'S DROP
IF MY 5M SYSTEM IS RIGHT THIS IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN
My 5Min system it is neutral now, next 10min it will tell if price will drop to 1.4420's or will start a up move to at least 1.4652
  • #4,373
  • Feb 18, 2008 4:48am Feb 18, 2008 4:48am
Almost time to my meal and I have scalped only 3 miserable pips with big lots.

It is not clear yet if we are going to cross 1.4580 Today or even if price reach 1.46.

My 4H system shows that maybe we are going for 1.43, so my Trend for this week is Bearish, but if price today do not stay below 1.46, we can see first a nasty Bullish tail to catch all that shorts from 1.47.

My preferable strategy for the week:
- Sell rallies for 100/180 pips profit
- buy big dips for 15/20 pips profit
  • #4,374
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:19am Feb 18, 2008 8:19am
Reach my level of 1.4660/65.
TP 1.4525 SL BE

I hope price will fall today to 1.4623, around Daily ema50.
If close above 1.4650, I am still in favor of shorts, but only short around 1.4750.
  • #4,375
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:21pm Feb 18, 2008 2:21pm
Hmm man i am still confused on whether thos pair is going up or down....haha anyone got some trades open as of today???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,376
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:25pm Feb 18, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting chady250
Hmm man i am still confused on whether thos pair is going up or down....haha anyone got some trades open as of today???
2k long... sitting about even, tight SL. The one making pips-AUD/USD.
  • #4,377
  • Feb 18, 2008 4:04pm Feb 18, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
2k long... sitting about even, tight SL. The one making pips-AUD/USD.
hehe thats pretty cool. i have a short open waiting to hit 1.4610ish. What is your PT for your position if you dont mind me asking?
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,378
  • Feb 18, 2008 4:59pm Feb 18, 2008 4:59pm
dont be dream for the eur/usd drop to 1.4600

the pair now is heading up to 1.4800 very soon
  • #4,379
  • Feb 18, 2008 5:05pm Feb 18, 2008 5:05pm
Sloppy day for me.. but net result is still +.6% for today.

20 pips range days are always fun...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20.png Size: 36 KB
  • #4,380
  • Feb 18, 2008 9:30pm Feb 18, 2008 9:30pm
The range broke
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_23.png Size: 32 KB
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