Any drop to sub 116 I will exit although it does not convince me that it will break thru 105 before making new highs at 109/110
Oops! I meant if it dropped thru 106, sorry. My StopLoss.
Ofcourse not, 116 is far from reality. My view is this pair will drop to 80-90 levels in some months after this corrective rally.
But the question is the correction rally has two points to exit. 108.50 and 110. Now, I am caught long cause it does appear like 108.50 formed the top to resume broader downtrend.
BUT! It does not look like a meaningful correction and a choppy market according to weeklies. It has to make 110 high before coming to below 104.95
The good thing today that it closed almost a doji.. not really bullish but at least not fully bearish.. it closed at opening price at best.
So certainly its not a signal to go short now until It makes a low below 117 now. After that I will exit at SL.
106.90 btw.
Objective 109.20
This weekly chart shows that usdjpy is in a long term bear trend targetting obviously below 100, and 90 (speaking of longer term)
but a temporary low 104.95 SHOULD BE in place and should hold until we test 110 Why i think so?
the drop from 124 to 111.60 has corrected 50% fibonacci
the drop from 118 to 107 has corrected 61% fibonacci
the drop from 114.65 to 104.95 so far corrected to 108.60 its 38% fib only.
So the correction does not make sense it ended there. I am unsure, but from the structure of the charts looks like a new high will be made in between 50 and 61 fib levels.
Adding to this theory is a long legged doji on weekly charts and a bullish breakout above 107.90 top, which now acting as strong resistance on the close. The weekly close is also bullish.
There is a chance maybe of a brief rally then sever drop in coming 2-3 weeks. I would really love to get short at 110. It will be amazing! (Hope it occurs)
