Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Let us all get back to Elliott Wave Counting.

EG

These are the Eur/Usd charts ...........
from earlirer today , before all the arguing
(Trying to update )

---------------------------------------------------

These are the Usd/Yen charts ...........
from earlirer today , before all the arguing

Price action moving toward an End of Wave C
(Trying to update )

--------------------------------------------------

Usd/Yen

Eg ............
This is the Usd/Yen going into tomorrow's US Day Session
------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm a little frustrated right now , please excuse me
little tired now , will be back tomorow morning ............

Money just another profit

EURUSD_021408

Last night I was looking at the EURUSD chart basically without the indicators.

The charts I posted earlier in the day yesterday somehow bothered me. I know I admitted that the spike on that move to 1.4949 somehow disrupted the proposed Symmetrical Triangle.

So I switched to the line chart and got the barrier triangle. But still I was not that satisfied yesterday.

The wave structures have not been that obvious to make me really confident on those wave counts.
***** insert the 2 charts here
Symmetrical triangle
Barrier Triangle

NextPost
Let me break this down on a per wave or leg basis.

1. Wave 4 was initially thought of to have a Zigzag structure because wave 2 was a complex sideways corrective wave. So that when price fell from 1.4966 into a 3 wave structure which resulted in nearly a C=A, This some how qualified as a Zigzag and therefore gave weight that this was a good possibility. Although, time-wise, I believe many had doubts that this wave 4 was over.
2. while time consideration was bearing some weight on the possibility of a wave 4 still in a developing mode, the next option was a a triangle or a complex sideways expanding wave which could either be a bigger Zigzag or a big FLAT complex corrective wave.
3. The move UP after that zigzag down was anticipated to be a 5 wave structure. As it turned out , it was more like a 3 wave structure before it turned around and made a dive again. That move up retraced more than 88% of the previous down wave (zigzag).
4. In a guideline I came across, alternating legs within a 5 wave triangle should be 62-88% of previous leg. We can now see on the 2nd chart that this has somehow not been followed or met.

*****insert 001c here to show the legs of the triangle
percentage retrace and the internal wave structure.


A = is a Zigzag
B = looks 3 wave in structure, but retraced A by about 92%
C = could be 3 or 5 wave in structure and it retraced B by about 90% of B
D = seems 3 wave in structure but has retraced more than 100% of C
E = seems to be 5 wave in structure but it could still be counted as 3

If we draw the trendlines based on the tops and bottoms of each wave, this is were we find discrepancies for the proposed patterns.

1st on the Symmetrical triangle a downward resistance trendline and an upward support trendline should converge based on the tops and bottoms of the legs. However, we see that wave D reached 1.4949 piercing ir violating the downward resistance trendline. Aside from this, it has also retraced wave C by more than 100%.

So I should start questioning my own previous analysis..

2nd option was the switching to the line chart for some guidance. Here I saw the possibility of the Barrier triangle. A barrier triangle still has 5 legs in it but sport a 33333 wave internal structure. So this may still be good for my wave count.

******** 3rd post

Somehow, I missed the other potential wave count. I was so engrossed with the triangle wave count. I have been seeing forecasts which were supposed to be based on EW Count. However I could not see a turn by turn wave count development. These forecasts or analyis were either made in Dec 2008 were EURUSD was forecasted to drop down to 1.38. or current wave counts which focused on just the last 1 or 2 legs and do not treat a bigger scope of the wave.

We had a zigzag then and this series of legs which looked like legs of a triangle. And somehow these people who made that forecast last December have stopped and turned quiet all this time.

Now I have been reading some more and looking into other EW reference materials ( Robert Balan ) in particular, I then realized I must be missing something out there. Then I reviewed Prechter’s book also on the Guideline of Alternation within a Corrective wave where it is stated:
“ The “A” wave sets the tone for the “B” wave to follow. A five-wave “A” indicates a zigzag for “B”, while a three-wave “A” indicates a FLAT or a Triangle”

If we look at the 4 hour EURUSD chart again, I then realized the new potential wave count whch somehow would close the GAP on information on the fundamental side of things.

I am talking about people and that includes me wondering how come EUR is seen to be getting stronger and stronger as the USD is into what is thought as in a recession. And GBPUSD seems to be going lower.

This looks like very amateurish take on what is happening or you can accuse me of rationalizing to support this new potential EW count for EURUSD. But the point is, this is what I am seeing as a new potential on my EW Count for EURUSD.

So here goes….

3 waves down from 1.4966 is a Zigzag wave A ( 3 wave structure ) followed by a B-FLAT which is a bit short of the required C = A within a FLAT wave. But the internal wave counts of this proposed B Flat may hold or may be valid.

So the current move down from 1.4949 which I see as being a 5 wave impulsive motive structure could be considered as wave 1 of the wave C down. Proposed target for the end of wave C down is @ FE 161.8@ 1.3880.

This should give the pair more time to dance in tune with the rest of the other forex pairs.


***** insert the C chart here to show the forecast for the wave C down @ FE161.8

Hey EG,

Ho you have a up to date chart for the eur/jpy?

Thanks

Bear

Bear,

I do not have an EURJPY wave count on my chart now. But I have been staring at my GBPJPY charts these past days. Looks like GBPJPY is heading up now. I could see a Potential Triangulated target of 230 area based on the Wedge system.

Under EW Rules, I think this is a potential count if in GBPJPY , we consider the downward move from 241.35 as a complex 3 wave C structure (wxy). So Price now should be heading UP. with SL at the previous low of 204.58

Now I normally see these 2 somehow move in almost the same way. It is then possible that EURJPY is headed up also. Technically, EURJPY has opened and closed above the weekly Pivot @ 156.31 and is heading up the monthly pivot @ 158.05 which it has actually pierced today. I would consider the open and close above the weekly Pivot as a sign of price heading up in the meduim term.

GBPJPY similarly has opened and closed above the weekly Pivot @ 209.07 and today has pierced the monthly pivot @ 212.66. And if you look at the oscillators 5min and 15min are going up while 30min and 60min and 240min are heading down. But the Daily is Heading up. We may see a retracement down to the Daily Pivot @ 211.47 which coincides with a 38.2% retracement and would fit the wave 4 scenario. I favour the 38.2% retrace as the assumed wave 2 of this potential wave 3 UP has made a 76.4% retrace which again is quite common for GBPJPY.

Similarly, it would seem that EURJPY is also developing a subwave 3 UP of a bigger wave 3 UP towards 164. Call me crazy now, it is what I see on my chart. Unless I am seeing things I am not supposed to see because of lack of sleep......

Will try to post some charts later.

EG

EURUSD on the otherhand has pierced through the weekly pivot today. I will need to see a daily candle open and close above these weekly pivot level @ 1.4603 to gain some bias for a Bullish stand on EURUSD.

Currently, it has made a slightly higher than 38.2% retrace of what I was considering as a wave down of a C wave. 1hour stochs is pointing down while 4hour stochs has touched the overbought level at 80. we may see a turn around at current level of 1.4640 heading down for a wave 3 of wave C.

EG

Here is the short term set up of my GBPJPY.

Looking at the FIB Extention Tool, we see that wave C Blue has exceeded the FE 161.8. So it is very likely that tjhis is not an ABC for a wave 4 but most probably a reversal in the short to medium term.

Granting that we consider this as one of those rare occasions when C = 261.8 A, then wave 5 red target will be seen to coincide with Daily R2 @ 214.64 up to Daily R3 @ 215.41

The magenta lines you see on the chart are tests for possible wedge and triangulation forecasts which basically point to a possible downward movement on this pair.

However when you analyze how price has been contained within the Linear Regression Channel and the potential EW count, Plus price location in relation to Pivot levels, I would a a higher bias for an upward move for this pair.

a. Price is above the weekly pivot - Bullish
b. Price seems to be at the end of a wave 4 within a wave 3 on the m30 chart. Wave 5 up will result to Bullishness for this pair.
c. Price has exceeded the usual standar maximum for a corrective wave C = 161.8 of A. Leading me to think that this is an impulsive wave and not a corrective wave. SO if this is an Impulsive wave and the direction is upward, then , I would have to be bias for the Long trades.

d. Price hovering the Daily Pivot Level @ 212.69. Oscillators seem to be pointing up. More bullishness bias.

Because this pair makes wide swings, I would have to be careful to note the following:
a. price falling below that channel @ 212.20
b. price breaching 211.51
c. price breaching 210.74
d. price breaching 209.07

Bear

I will have to apologize for a rather generalize view on the EURJPY early this morning.

Attached is the EW chart for this pair as I see it now. You will note that most of the wave 2s have wave Bs that are longer than wave As. I think this is still within the guideline for Irregular FLAT corrective waves as these wave Bs have not exceeded the 131.8% of wave As.

So not you will see on the m30 chart that price now looks like it is going up for the wave 5.

Then like the scenarion on the GBPJPY, what we consider as a potential wave C has exceeded the FE 161.8 relation to wave A. So again this is more likely an impulsive wave up for me.

I hope this helps.

EG

Here's my USDJPY update. My favorite pair :-D

I have a bias for the following Count on the attached charts.

These charts are dancing to the tune of the oscillators.

EG

EW and the Wedge plus a complex WXY corrective wave on the EURUSD

EG

What I'm seeing with the EJ charts and ED charts that you have posted really gives me the impression of a fairly steep decline in both soon. The EJ chart in terms of simple pattern recognition a bearish "flag" . That would fall in line whith your current thinking on the ED as well. Because in my experience these two move in close association with one another. Also, as you have pointed out, many of the indicators are indicating and overbought status on almost all time frames.

Just my thoughts

Lawrence a.k.a The Bear

My Bad. please disregard the post I just deleted.

Wave 2 was an Irregular FLAT on this EURJPY Chart. So we should be seeing a Zigzag or a Triangle wave 4 otherwise a nother complex corrective wave for wave 4.

This could still be that other count which could support a Zigzag down for the wave 4.

EG

Dedicated and driven are two words i could use to describe you. But please dont kill yourself over the eur/jpy chart. I know it isnt one of your regular pairs... Many thanks for your extensive work though

Lawrence a.k.a the bear

Cable reached my targets and turned around. Now I should take a look south