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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #5,661
  • Feb 8, 2008 4:45am Feb 8, 2008 4:45am
Quoting acidguy
beware....

there is some info on stock exchange floors boj is likely to intervene yen soon if keep strengtening at this brutal pace...
(even some ministers have showed they are against this, and japaneses in my opinion dont play, they act.)

probably 1 of the reason uj being stopped out in the range 106-106.50,
many traders are cautious. even when equities are falling hard.
there is some analisys also japan according to many analyst has peaked growth and probably already entered into recession, which is not yen bullish, and even boj threatening to cut rates.

if it manages to fall in the down 106 area, in my opinion can probably be a good time to buy. at least i will.
i would agree on you that shorting dollar yen is dangerous right now. Trichet hinted on rate cut, what next? Bank of Japan rate cut? Did you get in at 106? I did not
  • #5,662
  • Feb 10, 2008 12:40pm Feb 10, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting sDRs
Strange, but till now UJ didnt go down as it was few times in the past. I think this week one of the main problems is that in Japan holiday continues for all week, if it wount break support per today, we definately should see a bottom of this consolidating channel.
Yup that holiday, may be in effect today. A break of resistance or support should be in the mixes this week, especially since we have been in range bound areas.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,663
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:35pm Feb 10, 2008 2:35pm
USDJPY is bottoming out for me. I will take a long on a dip with stop just shade of 104.95
  • #5,664
  • Feb 10, 2008 3:39pm Feb 10, 2008 3:39pm
Quoting CounterTrend
USDJPY is bottoming out for me. I will take a long on a dip with stop just shade of 104.95
So you are going to enter @ about 106.00? Im short from 107.32, tp 106.20
  • #5,665
  • Feb 10, 2008 4:25pm Feb 10, 2008 4:25pm
watch out how the japanese goverment start to manipulate the yen as no one talked about the currency in G7...
  • #5,666
  • Feb 10, 2008 5:00pm Feb 10, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting acidguy
watch out how the japanese goverment start to manipulate the yen as no one talked about the currency in G7...
There didn't seem to be any talk about the yen in the G7, but there seems to speculation that Japan is heading into recession as they are holding 300 billion UK telegraph "There is still $300bn of bad debt out there, and Japan could be hiding most of it. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...ccjapan110.xml
As a new trader looking at the US/jpy, there seems to be a possible short for this pair. As the sentiment is bearish based on the article. Feedback?????
  • #5,667
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:49am Feb 11, 2008 1:49am
Ok, UJ just crossed his support, so bottom of consolidating channel is not far away
  • #5,668
  • Feb 11, 2008 6:17am Feb 11, 2008 6:17am
Long legged candlesticks on gbpjpy in terms of correlation looks like short-term bearish trend ending, but once this confirms, along with usdjpy. I will bet on the carry trade again.
  • #5,669
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:35am Feb 11, 2008 7:35am
Another interesting shape is forming. This is H4 chart. In this week that triangle should show for us direction of UJ, which will probably be down. Any opinions about this guys?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj_triangle.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #5,670
  • Feb 11, 2008 12:30pm Feb 11, 2008 12:30pm
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20h4.gif

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20d1.gif
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  • #5,671
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:07pm Feb 11, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting sDRs
Another interesting shape is forming. This is H4 chart. In this week that triangle should show for us direction of UJ, which will probably be down. Any opinions about this guys?
It tried to show us the direction last week, when it had headfake breaks in both directions (in the same day). Both were great fades for 100 pips or more. I would fade any breaks unless we get a solid close outside for a couple days. The whole market is watching this triangle, and the stop placement is VERY predictable (if you happened to watch the ticker tape on the yen futures last week, you could see the lots fly when the triangle falsely broke each time).

Triangle breaks are notoriously unreliable. The pros take price outside the triangle to run the stops on panicky inside faders, then those on the sidelines see the flutter of activity and buy/short into what they think is a breakout. The pros then dump their positions and reverse into these new breakout players. That's not to say fading works all the time either, you have to watch for clues.
  • #5,672
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:28pm Feb 11, 2008 1:28pm
Quoting Trader KGB
It tried to show us the direction last week, when it had headfake breaks in both directions (in the same day). Both were great fades for 100 pips or more. I would fade any breaks unless we get a solid close outside for a couple days. The whole market is watching this triangle, and the stop placement is VERY predictable (if you happened to watch the ticker tape on the yen futures last week, you could see the lots fly when the triangle falsely broke each time).

Triangle breaks are notoriously unreliable. The pros take price outside the triangle to run the stops on panicky inside faders, then those on the sidelines see the flutter of activity and buy/short into what they think is a breakout. The pros then dump their positions and reverse into these new breakout players. That's not to say fading works all the time either, you have to watch for clues.
You make a very interesting theory. This pair has made multiple false breakouts over the past couple of days. I am honestly thinking of going long one additional position, primarily because some people in this forum predic that the pair may jump upwards. Daily stochastics however shows it being almost over baught, while boilinger bands may indicate we are in a tight squeeze ready to burst....but in which way...
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,673
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:45pm Feb 11, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting chady250
You make a very interesting theory. This pair has made multiple false breakouts over the past couple of days.
From my experience, it happens more often in stocks and futures, where it's easier for a few larger players to control the show. When the true breakout comes, most likely it will be news/equity-driven. That was one of the clues last Friday, there was no news to support the suddenly dropping yen, nor the suddenly surging yen (except for ISM error rumors). The breakouts had no legs to feed on, and the equity market correlation wasn't supporting them either, so the probabilities favored the fade.
  • #5,674
  • Feb 12, 2008 1:18am Feb 12, 2008 1:18am
Hmm we just broked the 107.00 psychological resistance area....but is it good enough for a push higher???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #5,675
  • Feb 12, 2008 1:35am Feb 12, 2008 1:35am
Quoting chady250
Hmm we just broked the 107.00 psychological resistance area....but is it good enough for a push higher???

it's just a big fig, doesn't mean anything special. If 107.20/25 breaks that means more. 107.80 would mean the most.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #5,676
  • Feb 12, 2008 2:37am Feb 12, 2008 2:37am
Moving averages becoming supports and the 107 area as well. Wait for a break of the descending trendline to go long with target at 107,45 which is a pivot point. That my plan fo today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy12215min.JPG Size: 124 KB
  • #5,677
  • Feb 12, 2008 3:29am Feb 12, 2008 3:29am
I dont understand why after this consolidation UJ will go up? I see on H4 chart, that we have consolidating channel, it started after downtrend and UJ should cross him in the same direction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj_channelh4.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #5,678
  • Feb 12, 2008 4:52am Feb 12, 2008 4:52am
It really does not matter to me where it will go. If it breaks my pivot and EMAs, I enter at retest the sell position
  • #5,679
  • Feb 12, 2008 4:56am Feb 12, 2008 4:56am
Quoting sDRs
I dont understand why after this consolidation UJ will go up? I see on H4 chart, that we have consolidating channel, it started after downtrend and UJ should cross him in the same direction
After a move and close above 107.30 (107.27 was a major bottom and has been resistance since) I saw upside potential in this pair. After Sunday's move down to 106.33 I see 107.20/25 as major resistance again.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #5,680
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:32am Feb 12, 2008 7:32am
Quoting TexasforEX
After a move and close above 107.30 (107.27 was a major bottom and has been resistance since) I saw upside potential in this pair. After Sunday's move down to 106.33 I see 107.20/25 as major resistance again.
Now UJ is back to the top, im thinking about short this pair for maybe the last consolidation before running out of triangle
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