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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #3,541
  • Feb 9, 2008 7:19am Feb 9, 2008 7:19am
Quoting grkbear
I hope I got this right or else I will look like a fool to all of you after this post.

Thanks to all of you and especially Skunny!

Nick
I hope you have it right also . . good luck to you if you do


I know of another FF member that has had just the same kind of AHA moment many times . . . only to realise a short time later that it was a false AHA.

I think that his last AHA moment may be justified though . . . hope so for his sake and mine
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #3,542
  • Feb 9, 2008 7:25am Feb 9, 2008 7:25am
Quoting RaptorUK
I hope you have it right also . . good luck to you if you do


I know of another FF member that has had just the same kind of AHA moment many times . . . only to realise a short time later that it was a false AHA.

I think that his last AHA moment may be justified though . . . hope so for his sake and mine
Indeed, there is a deep science to these AHA moments, sometimes they're not what they seem.

AHA!
  • #3,543
  • Feb 9, 2008 10:43am Feb 9, 2008 10:43am
I think I had an AhHa moment earlier.

Dummy trading fibs within fibs on vhands, I would do well for a while then take a trade that instantly screamed back in the opposite direction to hit sl.

I realised this morning that I was letting the speed at which vhands can run obscure the position. Occasionally, I was not letting the fib complete itself; for example, I was taking as a sell signal a price movement that actually created a new low in the fib.

The result? Two hours vhanding later and 19 out of twenty successful eu trades, and an account balance up over 30% at a risk factor of 2. I am starting to set sl's at just behind the 68 for buys and 38 for sells.

AhHa. I think. We shall see. For now, I am a bit chuffed with my little self.
_________________________________________________

On a separate matter, I tried a Doji guppy buy trade on Wednesday, I think, after reading PiPr Pro's posting (I made a copy and kept it, so I have attached it for anyone who missed the post and is interested).

The trade went in the wrong direction, but I recalled someone saying that Doji trades do return and take profit eventually, so I did something I could never do live; I took away the sl and left it to run. The max approx 350 pip dd would have had me eating the carpet had it been a live trade.

Came Friday morning and firing up the demo, the trade had hit is 12 pip tp. Even better, swap had doubled the profit.

Not a strategy I would recommend, mind.

Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Doji trading by PiPr Pro.doc   96 KB | 928 downloads
  • #3,544
  • Feb 9, 2008 10:50am Feb 9, 2008 10:50am
Quoting grkbear
Phil,

Thank you. Let me say that when you get it you won't be able to believe the simplicity. IMHO you also won't believe that more people don't have the key. I guess we all learn and view things differently and at our own pace. You need to watch PA and what it does. There is a pattern. You also need to re-read the thread and the pdf file with the hints. They are there in plain site. He gave us the tools (not indicators) in this thread. Start with an open mind and delete all indicators off your chart and watch price movement.

This naked trading is tough, I am having problems taking my skivvies off. Its the cold time of year in these parts.

I had a strong hunch that the key to this thing was PA. A few pages back I noted some of my own general observations and asked some of the veterans of this thread to post some of their observations on PA. Most of the posts in this thread focus on where to set fibs. Not much had been said about PA. And nobody responded to my questions. To me, it's obvious that PA has to be the filter that yields the high success ratio. A monkey can set a fib and hope it hits the target. There's obviously more to it than that.

Can you point me to the pdf file with the hints?

Thanks,
Phil
  • #3,545
  • Feb 9, 2008 12:15pm Feb 9, 2008 12:15pm
This is probably the best thread in the history of internet. I am 100% sure it can change lives for those willing to put in the effort to study the godlike words of wisdom Skunny is offering us.
This thread could mean the entrance to the kingdom of heaven, if you are willing to sacrifice the effort it takes to understand. Skunny has offered us the wisdom, but it takes time to understand it, because it is so different than all the lies we have been used to believing. Let the truth fill you, and thou shalt succeed.
Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
  • #3,546
  • Feb 9, 2008 12:18pm Feb 9, 2008 12:18pm
to al of those that think they have an aha....

lets be reminded to stay humble...and realize that we know less than 1% of what is


take a look at post 137 on page 10

can any of u honestly say your fib would have been there? I have studied this chart endlessly... with no aha


i doubt anyone in the world (like skunny said) would have had there fib there...


skunny gave us a BAT so far which is a nice blunt instrument to smack some screws into place and drive them into the wood

BUT we do not have a an alan wrench yet IMO not even close, i would say we dont even have a screwdriver yet.... precision tools not yet revealed...at least not to me




CAN ANYONE HERE GIVE A HINT HOW THAT FIB ON POST 137 GO THERE?

I DOUBT IT



I AWAIT SKUNNYS NEXT LESSON
  • #3,547
  • Feb 9, 2008 12:45pm Feb 9, 2008 12:45pm
I think all it takes is one small AHA moment to make it. In my trading experience through stocks, futures, options and now forex (entering my 7th year now), I've done best when I've had one or two scenarios to look for with either 2-3 stocks, futures contracts or currency pairs. I would have scenario A and B and they were bound to show up on one of them at least once a day. I would get into trouble when I started seeing everything as a setup. I would take setup J or K on stock #10 of the day. I was really grasping at straws. And when I would do this, I definitely wasn't doing well in my trading.

The more information you have, the more you need to think about. The more you think, the more likely you are to convince yourself out of a setup entry. The more information you have, the better chance for conflict. This is a reason why having indicators or too many lines on a chart can really mess you up.

VHands is our best friend in the whole world right now...besides Skunny of course Everyone should be on it for hours and hours. When it gets frustrating and tiring, put in another 20-30 minutes. Don't clutter your charts with too many things. Personally, I've gotten the most out of the chart on post #386 and then applied what I learned there plus fibs to other charts and currency pairs. There hasn't been too much made of that chart at all, but to me its been one of the most valuable...again though, thats just me :
  • #3,548
  • Feb 9, 2008 1:13pm Feb 9, 2008 1:13pm
Quoting LoLoAC
Can any of you guys tell me what went wrong here?

Chears

PS. Thanks SpaceMama, the charts look better like this aswell!
Looks like the monster just ate your pips........ The random nature of forex strikes again!
  • #3,549
  • Feb 9, 2008 1:15pm Feb 9, 2008 1:15pm
Quoting dagoods

CAN ANYONE HERE GIVE A HINT HOW THAT FIB ON POST 137 GO THERE?

I DOUBT IT
Maybe because some cycle was ending there (go check by yourself,if you fib some highs and lows I'm sure that one of the target levels will appear at/near that area)

The other possibility is that price consolidated at that area which could have meant that it found some resistance (we all know that Skunny has emphasized many times importance of S/R)

Now,these are my guesses only - I'm learning like the others.Still,we have to be optimistic - have some faith Dagoods
  • #3,550
  • Feb 9, 2008 1:16pm Feb 9, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting bronxterp
I think all it takes is one small AHA moment to make it.
I don't have the experience of expertise to either agree or disagree with this.

What I can say with complete confidence is that my two AHA moments have increased the accuracy or my trading to a stunning degree.

They have also helped me understand why all those systems I tried never worked, or not for long at least.

I am going to second arralou, "This is probably the best thread in the history of internet"

For sure, it is the most useful to me.

  • #3,551
  • Edited 1:56pm Feb 9, 2008 1:21pm | Edited 1:56pm
Hi all,

Only came across this thread fairly recently and have been trying to catch up with all the posts, around half way through and also keeping up with the latest posts as they happen. Wow is the word that springs to mind when describing what I've read, say no more. Cycles within cycles, symmetry in a "random" market - amazing, unbelievable. Attached is how I see the bigger picture on GY as far as fib levels and extensions. Not that I trade the monthly charts mind you, my account doesn't bear the name Buffet or Soros. Correlation of 61.8 level (or 76.8 if you move the Monthly 0 point up to the next swing low) of the main fib and 138.2 extension of the smaller "retrace" fib. Could it mean it's reached the bottom and is ready for next leg up? Indeed, the break of the previous swing high of Jan 2007 hasn't completed yet, 138.2 at around 261 - 265 dependant on 0 level? However, as I've said I'm a newcomer to this so wtf do I know

Back to catching up for me
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy fibs 0902.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gy fibs 0902 extension.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #3,552
  • Feb 9, 2008 1:30pm Feb 9, 2008 1:30pm
I think it is very hard for us to find out exactly what Skunny was thinking when he drew that fib. Because he created it, he is also the genius behind it, making it very difficult to get into the same mindset.
If we create our own methods of finding where to draw the fibs, we are the creators and geniuses behind it, giving us a real advantage! I think that is what Skunny is trying to make us do.
Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
  • #3,553
  • Feb 9, 2008 1:31pm Feb 9, 2008 1:31pm
Quoting DocPMD
I had a strong hunch that the key to this thing was PA. A few pages back I noted some of my own general observations and asked some of the veterans of this thread to post some of their observations on PA. Most of the posts in this thread focus on where to set fibs. Not much had been said about PA. And nobody responded to my questions. To me, it's obvious that PA has to be the filter that yields the high success ratio. A monkey can set a fib and hope it hits the target. There's obviously more to it than that.

Can you point me to the pdf file with the hints?

Thanks,
Phil
http://www.mediafire.com/?5y0kkmjl2ad
  • #3,554
  • Feb 9, 2008 1:58pm Feb 9, 2008 1:58pm
This is my best guess on that Geppy monthly. I turned it into a weekly chart to fib the shorter time frame cycles and this is what I came up with. The yellow fib grid is the last cycle down. When it hit T1 and stalled, the red fib grid takes over. I drew this out and then switched to the monthly and got pretty much the same thing as Skunny. I probably arrived at this completely differently than he did so don't take my word for it!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy weekly.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #3,555
  • Feb 9, 2008 2:19pm Feb 9, 2008 2:19pm
Hi all Skunny students! There is my shot of Skunny monthly GY Chart.
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly.png Size: 67 KB
  • #3,556
  • Feb 9, 2008 2:29pm Feb 9, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting LoLoAC
Can any of you guys tell me what went wrong here?

Chears

PS. Thanks SpaceMama, the charts look better like this aswell!

Hello!
This went wrong. You went againt another and larger fib that was already activated. When it reached its target it retreated
Jon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forexfib.gif Size: 33 KB
Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
  • #3,557
  • Feb 9, 2008 3:04pm Feb 9, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting viat
Hi all Skunny students! There is my shot of Skunny monthly GY Chart.
Thanks

excuse my ignorance, but how would u arrive at this? can u explain your thinking here please.... choosing proper fib placement is essential...and if u truly have something more useful...then share .... or at least share your thinking....

and what tool is that u r using.... is it based on fibs? does it help u choose your fib placment?

u seem to have something there...but its much easier in hindsight to find fibs that fit perfectly... but your chart is very nice...and maybe u have better judgment than i do.... doing that in real time.... I would never have chosen that as my fib placement.... so any help is appreciated

regards
  • #3,558
  • Feb 9, 2008 3:13pm Feb 9, 2008 3:13pm
  •  TrevA
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: my brain has a mind of its own | 166 Posts
Hi All

I just want to share my method for placing fib lines in the correct location. It's not easy to get it right but with some experimentation and lateral thinking you can place your fibs 100% correct most times.

You know by looking at how the prices nicely bounce between fib lines that you have found the correct location to place your fib. This in turn increases the laser point accuracy of fib projections.

Here's what I do:

1. Draw a fib from the first price movement for the day that reverses past it's 100% retracement line. Top to bottom or bottom to top depending on the direction of the price projection.. 0 at the bottom and 100 at the top for long price projections and 0 at the top and 100 at the bottom for short projections.

2. Check to see whether prices bounce between important fib lines. They are 161.8 and 61.8. .618 is the most important fib number so I look for price action of these points for my retracements and projections. Try this experiment to see why... .618^2, .618^4 or .618^-3. You might be surprised at the results.

3. If they don't fit nicely then readjust your fib line until they do. There is no rule that says the 0 and 100 lines must be on the high or low price bars. They can be floating without being attached to anything as well. Surprised? Well, the goal is to make sure the .618 fits snug as a bug in a rug. because subsequent price action comes from this. Experiment a bit and you'll see i'm correct about this.

Hmmm, i tend to ramble and over complicate things so if you understand what I'm saying then congrats to you. I understand what I mean.

TrevA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,559
  • Feb 9, 2008 3:13pm Feb 9, 2008 3:13pm
Viat has fibbed the swings! I did exactly the same thing and placed the fibs at the same places
Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
  • #3,560
  • Feb 9, 2008 3:21pm Feb 9, 2008 3:21pm
  •  TrevA
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: my brain has a mind of its own | 166 Posts
And another example..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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