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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #801
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:23pm Feb 5, 2008 5:23pm
Igrok how do u know when a diamond will turn into continuation and when will it break in the opposite direction
  • #802
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:29pm Feb 5, 2008 10:29pm
Quoting jotty
Igrok how do u know when a diamond will turn into continuation and when will it break in the opposite direction
It depends on the shape of a particular diamond "cut". The sequence of the moves inside of a diamond is usually telling the story ahead of the actual break-out time.
  • #803
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:58am Feb 7, 2008 12:58am
240 min EUR/USD chart. This pattern is more likely to work initially as a continuation formation but not guaranteed. I would say that the probability is about 80%.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 240 min. EUR A0-FX.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #804
  • Edited 10:06am Feb 7, 2008 9:29am | Edited 10:06am
From here (after making the bottom at around 1.4480) the EUR/USD is likely to get back to 1.4820-30 initially.
  • #805
  • Feb 7, 2008 5:37pm Feb 7, 2008 5:37pm
Igrok how can u tell that diamond wuold be a continuation pattern
  • #806
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:01pm Feb 7, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting jotty
Igrok how can u tell that diamond wuold be a continuation pattern
I already told you just yesterday. It depends on the shape of a diamond. Normally a single-diagonaled diamond makes the break out in the direction opposite to the direction of the main diagonal.
  • #807
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:35am Feb 8, 2008 8:35am
Quoting Igrok
From here (after making the bottom at around 1.4480) the EUR/USD is likely to get back to 1.4820-30 initially.
Igrok, will you share the reason for it ?

in my daily calculation method i found something similar with your view.
from H1 chart using a combine of bollinger and ma, i have 1.4575 then 1.4760 as the projection target.

thanks
  • #808
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:19pm Feb 8, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting ayejkt
Igrok, will you share the reason for it ?

in my daily calculation method i found something similar with your view.
from H1 chart using a combine of bollinger and ma, i have 1.4575 then 1.4760 as the projection target.

thanks
Like always there is a combination of clues and factors including: already formed average monthly ranges on some pairs like EUR/USD and cable in combination with still unformed ranges on CAD and AUD; unfilled gaps, unsatisfied divergences, directions of the main move of the year; bearish looking USD/CAD with the potential going into .9400 level and bullish looking AUD/USD for which .9120 gap area is still a must and probably a double top at .9400 area as well. Also a potential diamond on daily USDX plus the inability of USD/JPY to clear 107.80 and the bullish divergences on some of the JPY crosses like GBP/JPY which is likely to target 217.00 area again. Overall it gives relatively bearish picture on the USD though still with a limited downside potential. So, on my view the ideal target on the EUR/USD could be located at 1.4820-30 area.
  • #809
  • Feb 9, 2008 8:05am Feb 9, 2008 8:05am
Igrok, do you have any specific way to calculate ATR?
  • #810
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 9, 2008 8:58am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting kihl
Igrok, do you have any specific way to calculate ATR?
There is no need for making precise calculations. The best way of evaluating ranges is not algebraic but rather geometrical which means going by analogies and comparing the length of the bars virtually. A single glance at the chart is usually enough to get the idea which range is already excessive, which is just about average and which is still too short.
  • #811
  • Feb 9, 2008 10:57am Feb 9, 2008 10:57am
Quoting Igrok
There is no need for making precise calculations. The best way of evaluating ranges is not algebraic but rather geometrical which means going by analogies and comparing the length of the bars virtually. A single glance at the chart is usually enough to get the idea which range is already excessive, which is just about average and which is still too short.
Thank you for the explanation. Can you please explain what are unsatisfied divergences, I have never heard of before.
  • #812
  • Edited 11:54am Feb 9, 2008 11:43am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting kihl
Thank you for the explanation. Can you please explain what are unsatisfied divergences, I have never heard of before.
"Unsatisfied divergence" is rather an inside joke between me and my assistants than any specific term. In our lingo it means a divergence that was almost completely covered but then being postponed for some reason. In this case, for example, there was an old divergence on CAD/USD pointing towards the low made on 11.20.07 at .9744. After forming a top at 1.0249 on 12.14.07 the market went down again and made another low on 12.28.07 at .9758, which is just 14 pips shy of the target, before going up again all the way to the new top on 01.22.08 thus leaving the job unfinished for a while.
  • #813
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:16pm Feb 12, 2008 10:16pm
Hi Igrok, what are your views on GBP/CHF now? I think last week telluv suggested it might be a diamond and is headed down. I'm not sure about the technicals but I think the pound has been sold too heavily in the past few months while swiss might suffer from carry traders.

Recent data from UK showed uptick in inflation, might mean BoE won't cut as much and as quickly.

I think many carry traders have ditched their JPY shorts as the one way bet on JPY has been going for too long and Japan is out of deflation so the BoJ might start talking about normalising again. I think many of these carry traders will now look to swiss as the financing currency of choice.

These combined make me favour a break of 2.1750 for GBP/CHF. What do you think about this and what does the chart say?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf13feb.JPG Size: 127 KB
  • #814
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:33pm Feb 12, 2008 10:33pm
Quoting Zeyin
Hi Igrok, what are your views on GBP/CHF now? I think last week telluv suggested it might be a diamond and is headed down. I'm not sure about the technicals but I think the pound has been sold too heavily in the past few months while swiss might suffer from carry traders.

Recent data from UK showed uptick in inflation, might mean BoE won't cut as much and as quickly.

I think many carry traders have ditched their JPY shorts as the one way bet on JPY has been going for too long and Japan is out of deflation so the BoJ might start talking about normalising again. I think many of these carry traders will now look to swiss as the financing currency of choice.

These combined make me favour a break of 2.1750 for GBP/CHF. What do you think about this and what does the chart say?
The chart says it's a triangle. The templates (#18.4) yesterday suggested to buy it ahead of the current month's low. On the fundamental side I don't know as I don't read news.
  • #815
  • Feb 13, 2008 5:13pm Feb 13, 2008 5:13pm
Well it has taken a few hours but have finished reading this thread.

I have ordered the book and should receive it next week, looking forward to reading it.

Also managed to find the July 2007 article from Currency Trader Magazine which was good.

Thanks Igrok and keep the posts coming mate.

Cheers.
  • #816
  • Feb 13, 2008 6:22pm Feb 13, 2008 6:22pm
On 1h eurusd is that a diamond...or maybe just a triangle? 4h looks more like a diamond.
  • #817
  • Feb 13, 2008 7:26pm Feb 13, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting Snuffleupagus
On 1h eurusd is that a diamond...or maybe just a triangle? 4h looks more like a diamond.
It should be ignored because the formation (whatever it is) is not at the very end of the current trend but has rather been attached to the side. On daily it looks more like a triangle but also not very convincing one.
  • #818
  • Feb 13, 2008 7:33pm Feb 13, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting BentRod
Well it has taken a few hours but have finished reading this thread.

I have ordered the book and should receive it next week, looking forward to reading it.

Also managed to find the July 2007 article from Currency Trader Magazine which was good.

Thanks Igrok and keep the posts coming mate.

Cheers.
Good luck.
  • #819
  • Feb 13, 2008 10:35pm Feb 13, 2008 10:35pm
Based on what I see on daily charts, 217.00 on GBP/JPY is a must. Same is most likely true for 120.20 on AUD/JPY. On all majors together it's quite likely that the ultimate bottom for the buck will be reached just as soon as USDX hits 73.90 level, which makes it possible for the Cable to reach 2.02 and for the EUR/USD to get to around 1.52 level before that.
  • #820
  • Edited 5:35pm Feb 14, 2008 4:24pm | Edited 5:35pm
There is a microscopic current week's range on the CAD/USD. Just a bit over 100 pips and thus it has a good chance for an extension today. Considering that on the Cable weekly range is well above average, it is more likely that USD will gain on Friday across the board. However, given the fact that the previous week was unusually volatile and there are sill plenty of unfinished business above current levels on Cable anf EUR/USD it would make more sense to stay with the direction of the main move of the day rather than predicting the next move.
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