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  • #4,141
  • Feb 7, 2008 2:28pm Feb 7, 2008 2:28pm
Daily trend could be broken if close at these levels or lower tomorrow. Look at the weekly Bearish bar created this week, it clearly indicates new lows in sight for the next few weeks. This could be a great short to keep for a while!
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  • #4,142
  • Feb 7, 2008 2:39pm Feb 7, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting th_ngue21
Ok girls,

How are your trading this week?
I have closed my shorts positions on the EUR/USD. Total +314 pips. I was down last month -18%. Now I have fought back to -8%.

Still, NO recession for me
nice...

I am still long. I got in small, and been adding on the slide. It's a risk, but my gut says I can't go long the dollar in this economy.

I like my current position and so long as we don't slip to 1.36 I think I will make money. I am looking at 1.54 on the weekly...it's sooo close.
  • #4,143
  • Edited 5:01pm Feb 7, 2008 3:55pm | Edited 5:01pm
Just took profits and all short positions that I had open since the super bowl. I expect we might see a test of 1.43xx but I'm only stalking long now. As expected, we had a nice correction.

A sustained break of 1.4300 would indicate more downside, however I think it's unlikely.

Long around 1.4399 - 4440 with targets of 1.4631 - 4700
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #4,144
  • Feb 7, 2008 3:59pm Feb 7, 2008 3:59pm
I am long at 1.4455.

I hope the price will close today around 1.4490/1.45, so it is a good sign that maybe that 1.4438 was the bottom for this week, let's see what will happen tomorrow.

I will close my trade at 1.4457 if price returns south to open new longs at 1.44
  • #4,145
  • Feb 7, 2008 5:31pm Feb 7, 2008 5:31pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
nice...

I am still long. I got in small, and been adding on the slide. It's a risk, but my gut says I can't go long the dollar in this economy.

I like my current position and so long as we don't slip to 1.36 I think I will make money. I am looking at 1.54 on the weekly...it's sooo close.
1.54 ????
  • #4,146
  • Feb 7, 2008 5:49pm Feb 7, 2008 5:49pm
weekly trendline just touched today, and strong support from weekly is 14434 area. so watch out for the short.

if break down either trendline or 14434 area, it gona be very bearish.

if break up the day/4h downtrend trendline, i suppose this will be the acending triangle that formed in weekly chart.
  • #4,147
  • Feb 7, 2008 5:53pm Feb 7, 2008 5:53pm
its been a very bearish these days.

I only got the first bar that gain me about 100 pips two days ago, but didnt get the one today.

anyhow, it seems my strategy works since i back test half years history.

entry when consolidate happen after thrust. this is my key of trading.
  • #4,148
  • Feb 7, 2008 8:38pm Feb 7, 2008 8:38pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
Just took profits and all short positions that I had open since the super bowl. I expect we might see a test of 1.43xx but I'm only stalking long now. As expected, we had a nice correction.

A sustained break of 1.4300 would indicate more downside, however I think it's unlikely.

Long around 1.4399 - 4440 with targets of 1.4631 - 4700
yessum. makes sense.
  • #4,149
  • Feb 7, 2008 8:47pm Feb 7, 2008 8:47pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
nice...

I am still long. I got in small, and been adding on the slide. It's a risk, but my gut says I can't go long the dollar in this economy.
i would agree with your soccer-playing banker friends... how can you be long right now? While the central bankers are acting like they are from different planets each, the market seems to affirm its assumption that the US economy still has a lot of impact on the world.

When you take a closer look at european economic growth, esp. service sector, it really doesn't look so bad, at least not yet. But for now it looks like everyone expects the euro zone to be very severely impacted by the mortgage crisis. i don't see the same tell-tale signs in Europe than I did in sept last year.

I'm still on the EUR squeeze train.

On the other hand I agree with your hopes. I am surprised that its going this far down, and no sign of letting up just yet. Amazes me.
  • #4,150
  • Feb 7, 2008 8:51pm Feb 7, 2008 8:51pm
Well see. The EURO was the "hero", "gold standard", "holy grail" two weeks ago. How can sentiment change so quick? The EURO negativity seems contrived to me. If I am right I have to wonder if I will have the courage to see it through for a good trade. If I am wrong...well I am already wrong, so I guess that won't be so bad.
  • #4,151
  • Feb 7, 2008 8:58pm Feb 7, 2008 8:58pm
Hmm it seems as if we are in a predicament here...If I had to weigh this out based solely on technicals, I think this is what would happen, please add to this if you find any others.

Upside Bias:
-Upward Trendline Support Level
-100Day EMA Support Level

Downward Bias:
-Triple Top Formation
-Weekly RSI has just crossed over

I believe the best set up here is

Long if it can break 55 EMA upwards
Short if it punctures the 100 EMA

What do you guys think???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,152
  • Feb 7, 2008 9:04pm Feb 7, 2008 9:04pm
Quoting chady250
Hmm it seems as if we are in a predicament here...If I had to weigh this out based solely on technicals, I think this is what would happen, please add to this if you find any others.

Upside Bias:
-Upward Trendline Support Level
-100Day EMA Support Level

Downward Bias:
-Triple Top Formation
-Weekly RSI has just crossed over

I believe the best set up here is

Long if it can break 55 EMA upwards
Short if it punctures the 100 EMA

What do you guys think???
Sounds completely rational to me...the question is, will the weekly trend persist? The trend is up. This seems like a fair breather and that test of 100SMA was a gut wrencher this afternoon. heh

All things said, It's gonna be tough to turn this around here.
  • #4,153
  • Feb 7, 2008 9:16pm Feb 7, 2008 9:16pm
market so indecided with trichet words...

has he hinted to buy euro or sell it... thats the question.
personally, dont have a solid clue.

now after ecb intervention, for some reason many traders instead of focusing in 1.50 and above, are focusing in 1.40 and below.

big change of sentiment about euro....
it now looks so risky... but USD too, with all those rate cuts and all those free rebates checks from bush which are likely to increase the deficit to new levels.

getting to real probability, personally would give a

- 65% chance euro can reach 1.4550-1.4600 in the next hours
- 35% dollar can reach to support around 1.4350 starting next week.

but something we could add, if usd strenghtens too much, is going to be worse for usa. as 1 of the industries which are holding the economy, up are exports... so far worse for usd.

lets see :
long at 1.4465 [email protected]... with a trailing stop of 10. so not risk here ....
  • #4,154
  • Feb 7, 2008 9:19pm Feb 7, 2008 9:19pm
I'll say long from the support @ 1.4460 until the resistance at 1.4620 ... from there, who knows?
  • #4,155
  • Feb 7, 2008 9:42pm Feb 7, 2008 9:42pm
EUR has taken the elevator down and now it's using the stairs to climb back up. It'll get there, but will take a while. I doubt it will fall below Thursday lows in the next few days.
  • #4,156
  • Feb 7, 2008 9:56pm Feb 7, 2008 9:56pm
I think 1.488 on 2/16 - 2/21. See chart.
Fib time line from last accent (yellow), avg triple peak (Horizontal Blue), Parallel to last rise (Diagonal Blue), Low track (Diagonal Green).
Fib time line seems to hit +/- a day.
The horizontal green is my current tp.
If you use this to trade, its your money not mine!
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  • #4,157
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:40am Feb 8, 2008 1:40am
EUR/USD will fall heavily around to 1.4386
  • #4,158
  • Feb 8, 2008 3:04am Feb 8, 2008 3:04am
I have two longs at 1.4455 and 1.4475.

Price can touch 1.4525 Today, I will close one trade at 1.4517, another moved to BE.

Next Monday will tell us where Euro will go, if breaks 1.4575, we can see 1.49 again, if breaks 1.4380 so price will decisively to 1.40 area.

Good luck to all
  • #4,159
  • Feb 8, 2008 3:06am Feb 8, 2008 3:06am
Quoting BoredToLoose
I have two longs at 1.4455 and 1.4475.

Price can touch 1.4525 Today, I will close one trade at 1.4517, another moved to BE.

Next Monday will tells us where Euro will go, if breaks 1.4575, we can see 1.49 again, if breaks 1.4380 so price will decisively to 1.40 area.

Good luck to all
it will happen today.. its little correction happening, some positions adjustment.. and we go down again.. technically eur/usd is bearish
  • #4,160
  • Edited 5:22am Feb 8, 2008 4:15am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting jacobtrader
it will happen today.. its little correction happening, some positions adjustment.. and we go down again.. technically eur/usd is bearish
If price does not cross 1.45 within next hour, we will go for 1.4350, but needs to close below 1.4463

I have closed one trade at 1.4496.
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