Pivot Point Squeeze, high probability system | Page 36 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Open Trade near Pivot line (Pivot Point) 16 replies

5/15 minutes time frame high probability system by Almo 929 replies

Point system to destinguish high or low probability trades? 3 replies

High probability Trading System 2 replies

Pivot point reference point? 7 replies

Attachments: Pivot Point Squeeze, high probability system
Exit Attachments

Pivot Point Squeeze, high probability system

  • #701
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:44am Feb 6, 2008 11:44am
SimonJ,

I don't think that there is an MT4 EA in the making.
  • #702
  • Feb 6, 2008 7:17pm Feb 6, 2008 7:17pm
GCTrader,

how do you avoid the whipsawing in the indicator? I don;t see that in your indicators, whereas in MT4 sometimes it's the opposite signal that is given initially or only one candle of a false signal. Just check sundowners screen shot above. In the beginning of it there is false buy signal (second from the left). Your indicators look so clean...

Could you elaborate on that?
  • #703
  • Feb 7, 2008 5:51am Feb 7, 2008 5:51am
Quoting divad
Johnny

Tried your programing on MM in UK coloured lines work great, Band width and trigger line work also but Sqeeze Trade entry / Exit has problems
A MACD THRESHOLD is not defined in Parameters. Previous Set to 2 in Parameters when added verifies ok. If put on GBP/USD no buys or sells show but on USD/JPY some buys and sells show using default parameters. Are there different parameters or program settings for each currency pair? Could you tell me which pair you tested your settings on then we can compare results.

Thanks for the programing

David
Yep, quite correct David - I forgot to mention the 'A' parameter in the notes. I fixed that now, and will re-publish in a little while but am making a further addition to the trade entry indicator which will predict in how many hours the BBW or squeeze is expected to back under the trigger line again.

If you're going to use it with the GBP/USD or any other 4 decimal place pair, there may be an issue in this particular indicator - I'll need to take a look at that. In some of the indicators though it is catered for ... you need to manually change the value of 'pcv' from 2 to 4 in the code (as I didn't make that a paramater ... guess I could though ).
  • #704
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:04am Feb 7, 2008 6:04am
"Stick with the system"???

The chart that GCT displayed above was for the AUD/USD not the EUR/JPY. The Aussie did not have the whipsaw, but the EUR/JPY did and I got caught in exactly those numbers as you stated. I stuck with the system though and my first trade was reversed for a -30 loss, the second was fully stopped out (for me it was an -82 in this case as I got stopped out by only 2 pips!), then the final reverse went onto win (for me it was only +75), but recovered most of the earlier losses. It would have been easy to pull the plug and not take the 3rd trade ... imagine how I would have felt in the morning to see I'd missed a winner and the chance to recover quite a few pips.

I have introduced a 'stpd' variable into the backtest to see how a restriction of limiting the trading to only a 'Single Trade Per Day' - this will certainly alleviate the whipsaw because it would force you to stay in and ride out the first trade of the day, and if it got stopped out then take the rest of the day off (possibly due to choppiness). I know this seems contrary to the my comments above, but what I mean by that is to stick with the system which you feel is proven to be the best for you. The 'stpd' concept actually doesn't look too bad - it gives a better equity curve and much reduced drawdowns ... although in some periods not as much profit. I need to do more testing on it though.
  • #705
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:45pm Feb 7, 2008 12:45pm
Nice signal on the USD/JPY a few hours ago. Gained 95 pips.
How many valid signals will you get in a month on one pair?
Once a day? I guess not. I get the impression from backtesting EUR/JPY abit that sometimes you catch the end of the breakout. Anyone experienced that?
  • #706
  • Feb 7, 2008 2:12pm Feb 7, 2008 2:12pm
Johnny

Firstly to make indicator display on GBP/USD I changed the MACD multiplier from 100 to 10000 and it seems to be ok. What is PCV? The addition of your next addition
"making a further addition to the trade entry indicator which will predict in how many hours the BBW or squeeze is expected to back under the trigger line again."
This will be good.

Is there a way of scanning Forex pairs for the squeeze on a particular timeframe and alerting us to those that are worth looking at?

David
  • #707
  • Feb 8, 2008 12:50pm Feb 8, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting jasius
GCTrader,

how do you avoid the whipsawing in the indicator? I don;t see that in your indicators, whereas in MT4 sometimes it's the opposite signal that is given initially or only one candle of a false signal. Just check sundowners screen shot above. In the beginning of it there is false buy signal (second from the left).
Exactly.

I've been trying various indicators, but the difficulty seems to be that the indicators I have tried all support the false signal. Any ideas?

The only thing I can think of is sound mm at this point.

Regards
  • #708
  • Feb 8, 2008 10:02pm Feb 8, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting jasius
GCTrader,

how do you avoid the whipsawing in the indicator? I don;t see that in your indicators, whereas in MT4 sometimes it's the opposite signal that is given initially or only one candle of a false signal. Just check sundowners screen shot above. In the beginning of it there is false buy signal (second from the left). Your indicators look so clean...

Could you elaborate on that?
Hi Jasius,

Unfortunately there is no real way that I know of yet that can enable you to avoid head fakes. There are a few that can avoid some of them such as not trading the signal given right before a substantial news event. On the 15min chart it can be sometimes traded but it is not for the faint heart. Even bollinger himself could not find a definitive answer for that question. Sound money management is definitely the true answer for this problem. As long as you are able to keep trading and have not blown your whole account then you can still get into those unreal winner...

GCT
  • #709
  • Feb 9, 2008 12:30am Feb 9, 2008 12:30am
Quoting GCTrader1
Hi Jasius,

Unfortunately there is no real way that I know of yet that can enable you to avoid head fakes. There are a few that can avoid some of them such as not trading the signal given right before a substantial news event. On the 15min chart it can be sometimes traded but it is not for the faint heart. Even bollinger himself could not find a definitive answer for that question. Sound money management is definitely the true answer for this problem. As long as you are able to keep trading and have not blown your whole account then you can still get into those unreal winner...

GCT
Bollinger did give an idea in his video. Put half a position on the original signal, if it continues that way, at least you haven't missed the signal completely. If it turns out to be a head fake, close that half (stop loss it out) and put a full position on the correct breakout direction.
He was talking about the daily stock charts though, need to apply that to shorter term forex. Lesson being, if you get tricked going the wrong direction, don't get all hurt, it is not forseeable, just close it and go the other way.
  • #710
  • Feb 9, 2008 9:38pm Feb 9, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting tenshi
Bollinger did give an idea in his video. Put half a position on the original signal, if it continues that way, at least you haven't missed the signal completely. If it turns out to be a head fake, close that half (stop loss it out) and put a full position on the correct breakout direction.
He was talking about the daily stock charts though, need to apply that to shorter term forex. Lesson being, if you get tricked going the wrong direction, don't get all hurt, it is not forseeable, just close it and go the other way.
Thats an interesting idea. I dont know if it will turn out profitable in the long term tho but it is worth writing it into code and backtesting it. I think just sound money management will lead to long term profits. I will post the results of the backtest. Hopefully we will get a few good trades this week!

GCT
  • #711
  • Feb 10, 2008 4:46am Feb 10, 2008 4:46am
Just for info, I have found from the backtesting that in the long term the most profitable (and most robust stable system) comes from only entering on the FIRST trigger enountered, and riding out the stop and profit levels on that basis ... and ignoring any subsequent reversals whilst in that particular trade.
  • #712
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:18pm Feb 11, 2008 7:18pm
The squeeze is on! Aussie is showing a squeeze of 0.0033 just above the central pivot point. It could make a nice break down or continue its move higher, time will tell!

GCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX AUD_USD (-).png Size: 25 KB
  • #713
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:54am Feb 12, 2008 9:54am
-30 stopped out on EURJPY last night.

On a 250 pip losing streak trading 1H EJ.
  • #714
  • Feb 12, 2008 2:26pm Feb 12, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting GrandHustle
-30 stopped out on EURJPY last night.

On a 250 pip losing streak trading 1H EJ.
What settings are you using for EJ? There was no signal for EJ last night and even if I dropped down the sample period, it ends up about 100 pips up. I went in on the aussie signal and only made 20 pips but still a win. The 3rd pic shows the sample period at 36 on the euroyen.

GCT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX AUD_USD (-).png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX EUR_JPY (-).png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX EUR_JPY1.png Size: 23 KB
  • #715
  • Feb 12, 2008 2:39pm Feb 12, 2008 2:39pm
Missed an awesome gold signal as well!

GCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot Gold (mini) (-).png Size: 25 KB
  • #716
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:07pm Feb 12, 2008 8:07pm
GCTrader
There was a signal on the EJ 1Hour last night. I have attached the picture for you to look at and tell me what you think. I drew a vertical line in black where yesterday's pivot point was, and circled in red the bandwith indicators contraction below the trigger for over 4 hours, and subsequent widening at the signal entry point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ejsetupzu3.jpg Size: 191 KB
  • #717
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:56pm Feb 12, 2008 10:56pm
Quoting GrandHustle
GCTrader
There was a signal on the EJ 1Hour last night. I have attached the picture for you to look at and tell me what you think. I drew a vertical line in black where yesterday's pivot point was, and circled in red the bandwith indicators contraction below the trigger for over 4 hours, and subsequent widening at the signal entry point.
There definitely was an increase in bandwidth as stated but the squeeze wasn't tight enough to signal an entry. I think your trigger buffer level is set too high, what is it set at on the euroyen?

GCT
  • #718
  • Feb 13, 2008 5:32pm Feb 13, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting GCTrader1
There definitely was an increase in bandwidth as stated but the squeeze wasn't tight enough to signal an entry. I think your trigger buffer level is set too high, what is it set at on the euroyen?

GCT
These are the variables I am using on the Squeeze INdicator:

L = Trigger = 0.0056
A = MACD = 6.2
B = Bollinger Bandwith = 18

Thanks for the help....because even on the chart you can see the squeeze was below 0.0056 trigger level, which is what I thought we were utilizing for 1H EuroYen.
  • #719
  • Feb 13, 2008 8:13pm Feb 13, 2008 8:13pm
It seems you may not be using GCT's dynamic trigger, which varies the trigger level according to recent tightness in the BBW.

By the way, I've attached the latest version and updates to a few of the indicators ... all have changed since the last attachment.

Setup screenshots are not yet available, however I've provided a final setup screenshot on the last page of the document.

I've added some neat features such as estimated time til 'imminent breakout' is in place.

Trade at your own risk though, I take no responsibility for these indicators - as they take some careful setup and monitoring.

Happy trading, Johnny.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc JK BB Visual Squeeze+Trigger+Entry Indicator CODEs.doc   328 KB | 710 downloads
  • #720
  • Feb 13, 2008 10:25pm Feb 13, 2008 10:25pm
Sorry guys - I just made a minor improvement to the time estimator for the entry trigger (on a 1hr chart for example, it will now show a minimum of 1hr if the BBW is on the decrease but not yet reached the trigger line - previously it may have shown zero if the time estimate was 30mins or less).

Please see new document and code (entry trigger indicator just updated).
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc JK BB Visual Squeeze+Trigger+Entry Indicator CODEs.doc   327 KB | 1,268 downloads
0 traders viewing now