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Pivot Point Squeeze, high probability system

  • #741
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:07pm Mar 7, 2008 5:07pm
Can you explain the exact rules you are applying on the pivot point in coordination with this strategy...for example let say the price brakes the main pivot by like 5 pips and are also having a cross of the center cable of the bolling bands. Would you wait for a bigger break of the pivot and aim for R1 or S2?

My second question is, lets say you do enter on a small break of the pivot with a cross of the center cable of the bolling bands and on the next candles it crosses the cable the other way again...would you swap positions?

Thanks Guys, please help me out.
  • #742
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:18pm Mar 7, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting chiefraven
hey GCT

how do you determine the Number of bars to look back? and why do you use that number for ERUJPY.... i dont particular trade ONE pair... i look at multiple pairs and look for oppotunities within all of them.... so was curious if you could explain why you pick certain number for certain pair.

also what pivots do you use? in the chart you just posted... are those weekly or monthly pivots? (and also support and resistance i'm assuming?)

could you upload the code to that perhaps? would really appreciate it.
Due to changes in the market conditions the look back period is adjusted within a certain range. It also depends on the trader. If you only want a lower low than quite some time meaning that you wait for it to be really tight, then you set a longer look back period. Different pairs have different volatilities so differing variables must be used. The euroyen is much more volatile than the aussie and so forth. I use daily pivots as they show great resistance and support. Pivot points are standard indicators with any charting package.

GCT
  • #743
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:29pm Mar 7, 2008 5:29pm
Quoting hayoo
My first post here. sorry for my bad English.
First I have to thank GCTrader1 for share this great system.

after adjust some parameter and add in money management, in the back test, I am able to turn $400 to $29000 in 3 month.

so amazing.

the parameter: EUR/JPY H1
B=24, l=0.0078, a=6.2 p=24, macd(9,14,1)

stop loss 20 pip, use 100% capital, $200 per lot $1.

The stratege is so unique.
after read the code again and again, I still have some question to ask.

1. the furmula

if (round((BollingerBandWidth[b](close))*10000)-((BollingerBandWidth[b](close[1]))*10000))>=1

it is eg: round(2.51) -1.99=3-1.99=1.01 > =1
round(3.49) -2 =3-2 > =1
some times 0.52 dif, sometimes 1.49 dif
why ?
should it be round( 2.51-1.99) ?

if (round((BollingerBandWidth[b](close))*10000-((BollingerBandWidth[b](close[1]))*10000))) >=1

This has little effect to the stragegy, but this should be more logical.

2. the exit strategy.
if abs((round(MACDline[5,13,1](close[1])))) - abs((round(MACDline[5,13,1](close)))) >= A then

It means only when there is a sudden, big drop in price, we will only sell to close position.

but if the price is slowly drop.... it will never close the position.
I have enounted once , it slowly drop until I lose 90K out of 100K.

But in overall, this still works very well, so amazing.

I have tried other exit stragegy eg: when moment(12,close) < 0 as in some books. and that result in very low performance.
Ok, a few things here.

1. the furmula

if (round((BollingerBandWidth[b](close))*10000)-((BollingerBandWidth[b](close[1]))*10000))>=1

This has EVERYTHING to do with the system, this picks the increase in the BBW and is stage 1 in the entry process.

2. the exit strategy.
if abs((round(MACDline[5,13,1](close[1])))) - abs((round(MACDline[5,13,1](close)))) >= A

This exit strategy is nothing more than one really simple way to exit the trade, it never was meant to be the best. I find personally that the pivot points make great exit levels which is what I use but I always keep an eye on the MACD for a turnaround.

100% capital should never be used, 5% at the max! Any trader is doing extremely well if you can pull in 10% a month, if you find this too modest of a target for repeatable returns than please prove me wrong and post.

So in finishing, yes this strategy makes sense and works well but money management will pull you through when it does not. Let your winners run and cut your losses.

Best of trading,

GCT
  • #744
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:36pm Mar 7, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting jets211990
Can you explain the exact rules you are applying on the pivot point in coordination with this strategy...for example let say the price brakes the main pivot by like 5 pips and are also having a cross of the center cable of the bolling bands. Would you wait for a bigger break of the pivot and aim for R1 or S2?

My second question is, lets say you do enter on a small break of the pivot with a cross of the center cable of the bolling bands and on the next candles it crosses the cable the other way again...would you swap positions?

Thanks Guys, please help me out.
Hi Jets,

When the BBW is at a new low while it is around the central pivot point and it breaks away and the BBW is increased by more than 1 point than an entry is signaled in the direction of the break.

You can swap positions and enter in the other way, these scenarios are known as head fakes. I personally dont go with that strategy and reverse my position but it can be profitable. The only time that you really dont want to be doing that is when it is in a consolidation phase, this could have you swapping and changing for quite some time. The system is pretty refined now thanks to many peoples input like John's but could still use a little more to hopefully recognize those periods and automatically adjust variables depending on prevailing market conditions.

Hope this helps,

GCT
  • #745
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:59am Mar 8, 2008 4:59am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Can you avoid this trade long in any way?
  • #746
  • Edited 5:28am Mar 8, 2008 5:27am | Edited 5:28am
Well i whant to give a littel back to this forum....so the way i have been able to filter some trades in this strategy is by using the moving average exponential 256....it can filter certain trades. You can also place it as a limit...For example if it comes prior to a pivot i would place my limit to the ema insteat of the pivot...i hope this helps in any away.
  • #747
  • Mar 8, 2008 5:29am Mar 8, 2008 5:29am
Quoting jets211990
Attachment




Can you avoid this trade long in any way?
What exact time and day is that signal given on?

GCT
  • #748
  • Mar 8, 2008 5:33am Mar 8, 2008 5:33am
Its on the GBP/JPY its on March 7 at 5...
  • #749
  • Edited 5:49am Mar 8, 2008 5:41am | Edited 5:49am
Well i have been combining the ema 256...and 64....when ever the mid boliinger cable crosses the 64 ema and the crosses its towards the 256 ema its seems 2 be good trade....what do you think?


More precisely when a candle closes on the other side of it not really the croses.
  • #750
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:03am Mar 8, 2008 6:03am
What time frame

Quoting jets211990
Well i have been combining the ema 256...and 64....when ever the mid boliinger cable crosses the 64 ema and the crosses its towards the 256 ema its seems 2 be good trade....what do you think?


More precisely when a candle closes on the other side of it not really the croses.
  • #751
  • Edited 4:29am Mar 10, 2008 4:17am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting ALEXISH
Hello guys!

Bugs in Bbands Squeeze v.5 fixed.. Was a problem with Trigger Line values in live trading and automatic Target Lines colors.. Please download and install again.. Sorry.. i'm not guru.. learning..
hi, ALEXISH:

First I'd like to thank you for your share of your code.

I am a programmer, so I can read code, although I am new to IT and MT4. But I have read all the code here. GCT's code, and your code from Version 1 to V5.

I think you have misunderstand GCT's original meaning.

The entry is
When BB is below triger level, eg 0.0056 and just start to increase , that is the entry point.

eg: triger 0.0056, BB goes down to 0.0032 and the next bar it change to 0.0033, this is the entry point. and it can catch the earliest change in trend.

But in your program.
you only entry when BB goes cross over 0.0056, and that is too late.
you may adjust you triger to 0.0032, but next time it may be 0.0042, you will miss it, but in GCT's formula he can catch all of them.
  • #752
  • Mar 10, 2008 6:12am Mar 10, 2008 6:12am
No squeeze worthy of a look on the aussie atm even tho the trigger level has come up it is nowhere near the pivot point. Keeping a close eye on it for now tho, I would not be surprised to see the aussie back at the 95 level in the near future...

GCT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #753
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:06pm Mar 14, 2008 7:06pm
Quoting hayoo
hi, ALEXISH:

First I'd like to thank you for your share of your code.

But in your program.
you only entry when BB goes cross over 0.0056, and that is too late.
you may adjust you triger to 0.0032, but next time it may be 0.0042, you will miss it, but in GCT's formula he can catch all of them.

Thanks for looking at this from a coder's point of view. Hopefully there is an MT4 coder that can address this. GCTrader's use of BB Bands is brilliant.

MT4 programmers... little help please.

I've been looking about for other confirming indicators and it would be great if the coding issue you've pointed out could be addressed.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #754
  • Mar 20, 2008 5:14pm Mar 20, 2008 5:14pm
I hope we didn't give up on this system. It looked really promising. Its been six days since the last post....people used to be posting everyday in here. Where are you guys?
  • #755
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:07pm Mar 20, 2008 7:07pm
I found this thread about a month ago, and have been playing around with some of the techniques. First things first - Thank you GCTrader1 for sharing your great system and generosity! Looks like your "mum" taught you well

Also thanks to all who have contributed - especially the programmers.
I trade off of a MT4 platform. I finally finished reading the thread from post one just last night.

I have been using 4xhermits initial program (indicator, listed in the first ten pages of this thread I believe). While I have not yet used this system with the triggers, I have found that if I eyeball it - if I wait to see a channel of the upper and lower BBands, then a bit of a pinch/squeeze, and then a great dialation, in conjunction with the PP and MACD, all based on GCT's ideas, that I can do pretty well. Though not as well.

When I have a bit more experience I will post some screen shots and tell you how I'm doin'.

btw 1- I am only paper trading with it at this point.
btw 2- I believe that "bandwidth" here is meaning the distance, measured in pips, between the top set of BBands and the bottom set of BB. If I am wrong, would someone please correct me
"Discipline is the key ingredient to Personal Freedom"
  • #756
  • Edited 8:35pm Mar 24, 2008 4:47pm | Edited 8:35pm
Using Alexish's version 5 template, and fxhermits template I saw a really nice buy signal on the E/Y this morning, 5-8 am EST - a squeeze just above the days PP, and volitility expanding. Got in long at 153.83 with SL set 153.56 just below PP, and TP set to 154.89 (in between R2 an R3), with a trailing stop of 30. I came home from work to find it hit my TP

I'm trying to post my images to show you, but if they aren't showing, then I have done something wrong and will have to figure it out next...

Anyone else trade this? Did you see something similar?

{Link Removed}
"Discipline is the key ingredient to Personal Freedom"
  • #757
  • Mar 26, 2008 5:49pm Mar 26, 2008 5:49pm
http://picnac.com/images/8657ey_ff post.gif

This is the signal and trade I found/made a few days ago that I talked about in my earlier post.
"Discipline is the key ingredient to Personal Freedom"
  • #758
  • Mar 27, 2008 6:43pm Mar 27, 2008 6:43pm
If you are new to the thread, welcome. Reading 757 posts to get up to speed does take some time. So I thought I'd recommend a few posts which, imho, may help you get up to speed a bit faster, especially if you use MT4...

Disclaimer: This is *not* a complete list, but may give you a quick skinny...

All of the fist three pages of posts, then,
posts:
235 - bandwidth and this system
271 -dont remember, but wrote down that it was good
all of page 19 if you use MT4 trading platform
338 - trigger levels do change
349 - a voice alarm for signals
364 - how to decide which direction the move may go
399 - how to get program working if you are using GCT's platform
451 - how to further educate yourself about all this
455 - a hint of how GCT trades
456 - a MT4 program mimic-ing GCT's work
503 - similar to 456
525 - describes how to use program from 503
565 - a web link
593 - sound alearts for MT4
673 - dont remember, but wrote down that it was good
703 - sage advise on where best to apply this system
721 - 2 vs. 4 decimal pairs
744 - more words from the master

I list this here in hopes to get more people interested in this great system.
Thanks again to all who have helped make this thread great!
"Discipline is the key ingredient to Personal Freedom"
  • #759
  • Apr 2, 2008 7:08pm Apr 2, 2008 7:08pm
here was a mini signal, at 4 am E.S.T.
Since I don't have 'buy' and 'sell' singnals, I use the following info to decide if I will make a trade, and in this case, it was all there - and proved to be a +100 pip movement in expected direction: Price was above central s.m.a., and above daily pivot, b.b bands squeezed, MACD was up compared to previous time frame, and candle drove up into the b.b.'s.

Still though, this is a bit crude compared to the real pivot point squeeze method........ but no one else has been talking.... any one out there?
http://picnac.com/images/3674ey_ff post_ii.gif
"Discipline is the key ingredient to Personal Freedom"
  • #760
  • Apr 17, 2008 4:43pm Apr 17, 2008 4:43pm
Any MT4 traders out there using Alexish's progam catch this buy signal? It is up 240 pips now, and only had a 20 pip drawdown from signal to get in long.
Wow. Thanks again GCTrader and Alexish!http://picnac.com/images/1180ey_up 240 from signal.gif
"Discipline is the key ingredient to Personal Freedom"
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