100 Trades Analysis

My take on the new trades:

EUROUSD
The weekly was bearish and today, it ended in a bearish engulfing. So 2% risk is justified here. I can see this pair go all the way to 1.2900 ish

GBPUSD
I said before this pair is in a downtrend, and the long candle that ends with a perfect shooting star speaks of a bearish power coming into play. So i'll short it with only 1% risk since I am a very aggresive trader AND there needs to be further bearish candle in order for me to risk 2%

NZDUSD
Like GBPUSD, except we ended with a spinning top. Since the weekly is bearish, I have to short it with 1% and wait for further decline to sell more

AUDUSD
Same as above, but I took this to be last in rank since there is a fractal formed on 1/8/06 that is very close to my entry. But I entered anyway since the weekly gives support, but only with 1% risk

Basically if tomorrow proves these trades to be on track, I will my add my positions wherever necessary. This is somewhat a new thing for me because I never added positions before so I might encounter some psychology hesitation.

How can i go about learning your tech? and apply to understand

Yeah it sounds good

my tech? I assume you mean my system? I only use candlesticks, fractals/support/resistance indicators and pivots (daily, weekly, monthly). Pure price action at work

If you want to learn candlesticks, I suggest you read nison's books. He's what they call 'father of candlesticks'

but we shall see, i don't have my metatrader now, but I think the positive US trade balance confirmed my analysis. Sometimes I feel you can see inside information from these candlesticks. With over millions of traders out there, somebody is bound to know the news even BEFORE it comes out

Updates of S/L's

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/958/dailyam8.jpg

Trade #75
AUDUSD
Stopped @ 0.7816
Net pips: -28 pips

I actually manually closed this one. Did I follow my plan of letting trades run? Yes. But on this trade, by the time I came home, AUD had a very positive employment data, and it had breached my moving stop loss if I had the time to move it. So if I left it alone, I would have NOT follow my plan. It's just unfortunate that I didn't have time to adjust my stop loss when the news came out.

Ok I'm actually having some heavy hesitation to add to my open trades. My God, I'm experiencing FEAR!!! Looking at the charts, I know it makes sense to add on, but I fear losing my profits if I add my positions. Oh man, I thought I was over this newbie shit.....what to do what to do!

Ok, I've decided not to add to my positions for the reason that my EUROUSD,GBPUSD and NZDUSD have not locked in any profit. I think it would make more sense to have that profits locked in as confirmation that you are in a trend and that you are not adding positions to a trade that you're still not able to profit from.


So there you go..sound reasoning
ps. Although I did not even considered adding to my USDJPY and USDCHF. I don't know why I ignored these. So in the future, I pray to God that I can summon enough courage to add to 'winning' positions (it's hard to break out of this newbie shell i tell you)

If anybody would like to short USDCAD, I would feel confident about it. Why? first we see a shooting start on the 1/8 which signals trouble. Then on the 1/9 and 1/10, they are ranging but look at the upper shadows. Bears are saying hell no you ain't at the bulls so I think with today's bearish candle, bulls are just givin up and ready to tumble..


my usdcad analysis..hehe
ps. I'm waiting for the price to close below 1.1720 before selling..

well I checked this morning an only my USDJPY was still on. Those crazy Brits and their surprises again

But looking into my EUROUSD, I am thinking about devising new strategies into my stop losses. I think in terms of candlesticks, I want to put my stop loss on the action of candles themselves rather than pivots. Or specifically the action of candles around certain pivots.
I guess we run into an issue between grabbing as much pips when trade is in your favor or leaving some of it on the table to protect against daily fluctuations and having the risk to lose it.

I don't know what side i'm leaning on as of now. I think my style would develop as I trade longer and gain more experience.

I did a little more analysis on my failed trades today and I noticed a few things that hopefully teach us few lessons.

All the reversal patterns I mentioned didnot happen after a trend. Pairs like GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD didn't have significant trends developed before I saw the stars. I think next time I need to stop being so trigger happy on trades and really focus on the quality of those trades.

One thing I learn though is that big candles (bearish/bullish belts) confirm resistance/supports. And I have to wait for prices to close beyond this important levels before initiating trades. And also I see that Nison's suggestion that gaps become strong support is evident on GBPUSD. Why didn't I see that!

Update of S/L

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/5448/dailygf8.jpg

Trade #70
USDCHF
Stopped @ 1.2412
Net pips: 76 pips
R: 1.01

Trade #72
EUROUSD
Stopped @ 1.2984
Net pips: -21 pips
R: -0.28

Trade #73
GBPUSD
Stopped @ 1.9390
Net pips: -36 pips
R:-0.45

Trade #74
NZDUSD
Stopped @ 0.7816
Net pips: -7 pips
R: -0.15

These consecutive losing trades have prompted me to look more into my strategy with trading candlesticks. I notice I am taking trades too soon and that I need to expand my skill to look at the charts effectively.

Fortunately I didn't have much stuff to do at work today so I spent my time looking at charts and reading nison's 'beyond candlesticks'. And from that I have come up a set of trading rules that I think would enable me to take advantage of ranging and trending markets. I feel this is also another huge transition for me because now I am beginning to admit target profit (yes I did say target profit aka TP) is essential in a ranging markets.

Basically, right now all I can say that my strategy would involve the thrust and spring concept. I will use that when I identify a ranging market and would use TP whenever I enter in trades.

This would require me to skillfully look at charts on the daily and weekly and pick up clues on the markets potential resistance/support.

So that's all for now as I am still formulating this technique..

peace

New trades

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/5199/dailysi3.jpg

Trade #76
GBPUSD
percent risk: 1%

Trade #77
USDCAD
percent risk: 1%

Trade #78
NZDUSD
percent risk: 1%

Ok, let me see if I can first explain to myself why I took the new trades

GBPUSD
I see that today's candle broke shooting star high on 1/9 This was an established resistance followed by the bearish candle on the 1/10. today's candle also formed a base and so these candles formed a range with today's high created an upthrust

USDCAD
several days have passed the candles are testing a well defined range especially on the resistance. Three attempts at high were rejected. The base is also nicely formed so I see a range here as well.

NZDUSD
same pattern developing on GBPUSD except the opposite.

we'll see how this goes

Well GBP definitely got stopped out. And the interesting thing is that if today's closes at where it is now, this week's candle is the opposite of last week. So it's quite unclear what the bias would be

USDCAD and NZDUSD is moving as expected. I know my USDCAD hit my TP but NZDUSD not so sure since it's hovering very close to my TP.

ps. The first 2 weeks of january has been bouncing back and forth for my account. I would gain and lose equal ways (probably slightly in the negative). I feel as if my account is hitting a resistance. Hopefully we'll see a breakout in the next 2 weeks.

i can't log into fxtrade....DAMN YOU OANDA!

Updates of S/L

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/6996/dailybm6.jpg


Trade # 76
GBPUSD
Stopped @ 1.9546
Net pips: -114 pips
R: -1.00

Trade #77
USDCAD
Stopped @ 1.1725
Net pips: 40 pips
R: 0.97