Thexder's journey to(ward?) freedom

Nice job ! You saw the opportunity and took it.

I hope I don't have to give it back in the next few days....

You wont, just stick to the rules you have set for yourself.

Eat, Drink and be Merry. Then Drink again. Got it...

Now that I can trade the scalp method on auto pilot with hardened rules and a more disciplined approach, just watching the chart every so often and updating orders until I get a hit, I can focus more on other things like the recent efforts in developing the Hourly assisted Daily Method PDF I started yesterday.

Although I still need to figure out the exact trading rules on that and do a lot more testing, so far I've tested some random points in time on EUR/JPY including the usual tactic of evaluating trending and ranging periods and also following the system straight through a given time period, maybe a week of constant trades at one point in time, then a week of trades from another point, just so the trades aren't cherry picked and more closely represent a realistic scenario.

At this point I like what I'm seeing to a point where I might be willing to go live this week if I see a setup. The way it looks is when things are ranging horribly on the daily chart, a lot of trades are avoided by the strategy and those few bad ones that slip through have a minimal risk even possibly less than what I'm used to subjecting myself to on the Cable scalp. Using the hourly chart I only have to front 30 pips or so to get started and that's an acceptable risk - when the trade actually works out it's good for anywhere between a hundred to a thousand pips on that chart, and all by sometimes just trading the support/resistance breaks on the hourly chart itself, not even needing to move up to higher time frames. And also with part of the method being to add to a winning position on each new S/R break in favour of the trade, that many pips compounded is an appealing reason to start trading it and see what happens if I accept my assumed risk as I see it now. As with any method there may be a string of days or weeks with not much more than break even or a bunch of small losses but eventually the bigger 100+ move comes and makes up for any struggles and gives the profit target for the long run. Do this with a few trading methods successfully and a few different pairs, and things should all balance out for the better.

I can always wait for a good setup before I jump in for the first time - something that looks like it might be trending well, and having a tight stop based on the current S/R areas I'd be trailing my stop behind. All I need to do is snag a good one and build a cushion to continue trading it with some losses to come and wait for the next big one.

If I get it going I'll track the events in here along with any scalping I do as usual. Being a new method I'll start out with screen shots of the trades and eventually just give the results.

Cable Hourly Scalp
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Feb Week 1: +55 +16 = +71

Started out with a loss on a failed long break out, watched for a 61.8% retracement of the failed break momentum up move, ended up continuing beyond 100% retracement for a short entry at 1.9715 that went down far enough to cover the failed break and leave something in the bank. In the run from the failed long to the completed short we spanned 100 pips so I'm going to assume the rest of the day is consolidating and I'm not going to over trade. I got something out of the average true range for the day.

Cable Hourly Scalp
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Feb Week 1: +55 +16 +16 = +87

Started the day with a failed long (this is getting old now) and a successful big short that left me with +16 after covering losses. Cable has moved 100 pips today already and I have close to what I normally expect on an average successful day so I get to go to bed at 3:30am today instead of 9am tomorrow.

Cable Hourly Scalp
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Feb Week 1: +55 +16 +16 +56 = +143

Straddled from Asian 1.9620 to 1.9586. First break was short and went far and stable on M1 support and resistance, finally stopping above 1.9518, where it went on to consolidate sideways for over an hour before heading back up slightly from there as of right now.

One more trading day left in the week and once again despite some shaky days of stop outs and not much profit, we're almost exactly at weekly average quota assuming we don't take a big hit tomorrow and not make up for it.

Cable Hourly Scalp
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Feb Week 1: +55 +16 +16 +56 +54 = +197

After that last short this morning the M1 activity has been rather smooth and controlled without major ranging so I saw another opportunity on the hourly chart to pull a fib greater than 40 pips from 1.9506 to 1.9558, took the short and it's still in play with a stop at 1.9485.

Update: Just broke M1 support at 1.9430, moved stop to M1 resistance 1.9463. New support formed at 1.9416
Update: Support broken, moved stop to 1.9438, support at 1.9408
Update: Stopped out.

New PDF on post 1 - fast scalp (trades lasting up to an hour) using M5 and M15 with trend line breaks. Original inspiration cited within the message body. The document is more of a re-iteration for my own notes and a few examples of trades that could have been taken today as I was writing the document. Eventually if I stick with the idea I'll add more to the method like price action to tell when it's best to avoid a trade, what to do when the major trend is weaking or possibly reversing, how to know when it's best to exit a trade in play...

I've also started using the hourly assisted daily method I wrote about this week. I used it several times on EUR/JPY and although I'm satisfied with how it's going, following my rules and sticking to it, I keep getting stopped out before anything can be banked. The first trade I took a few days ago was up over 100 pips but I got stopped at break even (I moved the stop up to break even once I was in profit that far because it would be a shame to get stopped out for a loss after that on my first try so I broke the rules on my test run). Then I took the next signal short today and at one point I was up over +130, again I moved my stop to break even, refusing to take a hit after that much profit, and the thing retraced back and took me out again. And this time price really did retrace back far enough to have taken out a legitimate stop so I would have lost if I didn't put myself at break even.

So I haven't posted any trades on that method yet. I want to continue experimenting. When today's stop occurred the trend direction bias was reversed on the H4 chart so I'm probably locked out for at least the rest of the week on that method with that pair.

Cable Hourly Scalp
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Feb Week 1: +55 +16 +16 +56 +54 +26 = +223

In the Asian session there was a lot of upward hammering at a very constant price of 1.9446 so it seemed like a long break would occur, but in my previous experiences it's not a good idea to pull a fib directly along a consolidation price since any jitter can trigger a false break out, so I like to see some sort of momentum start moving first. Also there was no good place to pull a fib with a range at least 40 pips yet anyway so I was forced to either stay out until some movement occurred or pull a fib from a wider range in the end of the previous day.

There was a failed long break that ended up bouncing down to 1.9401, then snapping back up for a true long break. This failed break gave me what I needed, a break out of consolidation, and a place to pull a fib at least 40 pips, across 1.9401 to 1.9452.

Trailing the stop on M1 support areas I got stopped out at the support at 1.9488 and by then the price move of the day was just over 100 pips and the rest should be consolidation so I was done.

Hey Thexder, I have a quick question for you. Do you ever trade just before London session? For example today, lets say the price breaks the fib high right before London open. Assuming I have placed the fibs in the correct location, will you place a buy order, ride and hope for the breakout to continue?

Edit: Ok, I opened my mouth too soon, I read the section in your PDF "Choosing A Trading Range" and the answer was right in front of my eyes! Thanks for the hard work you have put into creating these pdfs for all to read.

Started the week with a break even. Didn't like how the short was going, not so clearly defined movement. Could have maybe had around +20 but that's only hindsight. And now there's almost been 100 pips movement peak to peak so I won't likely take anything else until tomorrow unless something appealing forms in the clouds. I've learned not to try to find something for the sake of trading.

Edit: There was a long break on the far side of the 90 pip range after the short but the net result would have barely been around +10. The break out began way down near the bottom of this range so by the time it would have reached the top break out area, the steam could have been expected to be all gone. No regrets on missing it.

Over time with observations I've chosen to mostly start taking trades anywhere after 12am EST. Momentum seems to be good anytime after that. This time frame combined with other filters like not placing a trade right along the edge of a several hour consolidation that hammers near a break out area...helps confirm the momentum and avoid the false breaks.

Thexder, when do you sleep?

Wednesdays and Saturdays.

Revised fast scalp PDF with some refinements on time periods to consider a trade still good or going stale, rules on establishing trend lines and taking trades on a break, and added a 50% retracement caution note when watching a pull back and waiting for the trend to resume - don't let it go too far backwards. Revision history is on the last page.
Still a work in progress being molded as new observations are made.

The hourly assisted daily method hasn't had any changes, I still like how it looks (although the longer time frame makes it a slower moving process to get that tweaked)

Glad to see new pdf on your journal,
it is great!

Ah shucks . It's great to see your progess. I just read your new pdf. Excellent observations. This probably goes without saying but be sure to pay attention to the news too so a carefully planned trade doesn't all of a sudden go haywire when news is released.

Especially on the short scalps but at least the stops are also that much tighter...as long as there's no gaps over the stops or slippage with brokers locking out executions that should be tightly traded but end up slipping far. Yeah.
The few scalps I've looked at in my current observations have actually occurred in the dormant part of the day, safe from that volatility. I wonder if there's something in that, maybe it turns out that this method works best during the off peak hours. That would give a way to trade ALL day. Oh no...what've I done...