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Thexder's journey to(ward?) freedom

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Nov 19, 2009 2:33am Dec 10, 2007 2:09pm | Edited Nov 19, 2009 2:33am
Begin on page 14, post 203
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=59968&page=14
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:16pm Dec 10, 2007 2:16pm
This is one trade I'm currently in on the daily time frame for GBP/USD (that's what I've traded or researched in the last few months exclusively). I went long with the daily pin that bounced off a 61.8% retracement of a major upmove as well as some horizontal support from October that lines up at the same 61.8% horizontal line. Others have pointed out that this pin is also bouncing off a certain MA and a price channel but I haven't looked at those factors.

Right now I'm up 127 pips with 1 mini lot (I use a mini account, can't do micro lots and can't afford full lots). I previously closed out one lot for around 130 pips profit and the open trade is a free trade with a stop for break even. I'll think more about where I might want to adjust it but I don't have any fears of losing profit since I have the other closed out lot and can't lose.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 71 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #3
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:27pm Dec 10, 2007 2:27pm
Here's a PDF I made for the first 3 weeks of November hypothetical trades that could have been taken on GBP/USD using one approach to Fibonacci with the 1 hour time frame starting at the London session and following price around with the fib range. I did this as a back test exercise and documented my approach so I wouldn't forget my thinking and also to see if it's a feasible method.

As brute force and time intensive as it is to sit and monitor the price through London and NY sessions, it seems to be profitable as a fallback plan. I believe November could have netted over 400 to 500 pips following this, and I also tested October which was highly range bound, and found 300 pips using this technique, so I trust it and trade it when I have the time to sit and stare.

This is one reason I want to migrate to daily charts, so I don't have to sit there forever.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Fibonacci Breakout Trade Notes November 2007.pdf   488 KB | 996 downloads
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #4
  • Dec 10, 2007 2:36pm Dec 10, 2007 2:36pm
Here's a trade I took long on cable last night using the 1 hour fib method. I set up a fib across a high and low within the end of the previous day and the current day's Asian session, then monitored candles until they broke out of either the fib 0% or 100% (high or low).

The candles maintained a bias for a long break out and it eventually occurred, hitting my target (T1 level, 1.34% fib extension). The T2 fib extension is 1.55%. In the short direction T1 would be 0.34 and T2 would be 0.55.

I only pull a fib across a range of at least 30 pips, preferably closer to 40, to make the targets worth going after. The stop will usually be placed at the fib 50% level, or if the fib range is only around 40 or less, I will use the 100% retracement level as a stop to give it more room. More often than not, the T1 target is reached before a stop occurs. These fib levels were learned from Bobokus.

As shown in the price action after the relatively narrow fib break out and target objectives, things took off long. Although this 1 hour fib method would have me exiting way down at T1, it was only a scalp effort (and we don't know where price would have gone so it could have gone way down instead of way up after my T1 exit). I'm of course in the long daily pin trade on cable so I still captured those pips. I just wanted to scalp more in the same path.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 48 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #5
  • Dec 11, 2007 1:38am Dec 11, 2007 1:38am
Today's first break out of the short term fib drawn during the Asian session is a long break out so I have entered on the swing high fib break and added to the daily long position (I didn't exit at targets, and set the stop to the daily trade big stop).

I now have two mini lots in play on the long cable daily trade. I have to think about money management right now, especially since I can use one lot to scale out and protect against losses on the other that I leave running.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 32 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #6
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:34am Dec 11, 2007 11:34am
After the fib long break out at the start of London, there was a new fib short break out this morning that could provide over 20 pips on the correction ride down to the 61.8% support of yesterday's up move.

I would have taken that short except I can't hedge and I'm in a long daily so right now I'm just watching to see if this daily 61.8% holds or crumbles regarding the daily trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 63 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #7
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:12pm Dec 11, 2007 6:12pm
The blue lines show all the short term long trades that could have been taken after the daily pin last week. Given that the pin suggests a possible good reversal up move, the short term fib trades could be held instead of exited at short TP levels to see if anything develops, using stops at levels that make sense on a daily time frame.

In this case three positions could have been taken three days in a row before a big down move occurred, and that down move could have been avoided or even traded by paying attention to the ranging activity that happened just before the fall. There was a valid long trade at the beginning of the day but there was a valid short trade later in the day, and this was the first valid short trade since the pin last week.

With the range period showing indecision and then a short signal, at least some if not all of the long positions could have been exited at that short signal and possibly a short trade taken - preserving the profits of the long move and giving more on the short. If the short move would have recovered and provided a long signal, all previous lots could have been re-traded as if nothing ever happened and there may only be minimal losses rather than several days work down the tubes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 89 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #8
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:24pm Dec 11, 2007 7:24pm
Glad to see you documenting your trading and your thoughts. Exposing yourself to the general public is a big step, and says that you have enough confidence in what your doing that you can show it....just keep doing it.
  • #9
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:42pm Dec 11, 2007 7:42pm
Thanks for the apprenticeship that got me here and is helping others figure out their own way also. Maybe someone can learn something from my adventures now.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #10
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:44pm Dec 11, 2007 7:44pm
Quoting Thexder
Thanks for the apprenticeship that got me here and is helping others figure out their own way also. Maybe someone can learn something from my adventures now.

They will, youll see.
  • #11
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:48pm Dec 11, 2007 7:48pm
Quoting Thexder
Thanks for the apprenticeship that got me here and is helping others figure out their own way also. Maybe someone can learn something from my adventures now.
I'm going to need a translator for this journey...lol

Good luck Thex, let me know if I can help. I'll take Exederin before hand
Robonacci com
  • #12
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:54pm Dec 11, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting Skunny
I'm going to need a translator for this journey...lol

Good luck Thex, let me know if I can help. I'll take Exederin before hand
The way things are looking, Bo is the brewery, I'm the beer/wine mule, and you can be the bartender. We can all take the meds the next day.

3 more hours until I make a decision on the next day's move bias. There's a movie coming on one of the digital channels, I think I'll just have a glass of wine, kick back, then get geared up after that.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #13
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:59pm Dec 11, 2007 7:59pm
Quoting Thexder
The way things are looking, Bo is the brewery, I'm the beer/wine mule, and you can be the bartender. We can all take the meds the next day.

3 more hours until I make a decision on the next day's move bias. There's a movie coming on one of the digital channels, I think I'll just have a glass of wine, kick back, then get geared up after that.
Good plan my friend Let me know if you want me to tell you where it's going.
Robonacci com
  • #14
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:05pm Dec 11, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting Skunny
Good plan my friend Let me know if you want me to tell you where it's going.
I'll give you a hint...lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 20 KB
Robonacci com
  • #15
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:27pm Dec 11, 2007 8:27pm
Quoting Skunny
I'll give you a hint...lol
I've already begun over-anal-izing it...what the HELL Is that?? And where can I get the Xray goggles with the LCD screen capture output that lets me save the hyper reality screen shots?

It looks like some kind of Tron grid.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #16
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:31pm Dec 11, 2007 8:31pm
Quoting Thexder
I've already begun over-anal-izing it...what the HELL Is that?? And where can I get the Xray goggles with the LCD screen capture output that lets me save the hyper reality screen shots?

It looks like some kind of Tron grid.
I thought you might like it...lol I'm laughing my ars off....too funny.
Robonacci com
  • #17
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:38pm Dec 11, 2007 8:38pm
And you said my analysis is hard to understand.. Another round!
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #18
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:45pm Dec 11, 2007 8:45pm
Quoting Thexder
And you said my analysis is hard to understand.. Another round!
Is this better. There is a mess of support to the south and a break out to the north.....lol I'm sure you understand now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 14 KB
Robonacci com
  • #19
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:56pm Dec 11, 2007 8:56pm
Sounds like it's time to bear the snow and take the long walk uphill, both directions against the cold, barefoot and drunk so it seems....Is a flushed face a long or short?
I'm going on a visionary quest to seek Bo's wisdom.

By the way, at what angle are those parallel lines, and is it constant or can it vary next time? (/Decipher Grid Construct)
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #20
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:47pm Dec 11, 2007 9:47pm
Quoting Thexder
Sounds like it's time to bear the snow and take the long walk uphill, both directions against the cold, barefoot and drunk so it seems....Is a flushed face a long or short?
I'm going on a visionary quest to seek Bo's wisdom.

By the way, at what angle are those parallel lines, and is it constant or can it vary next time? (/Decipher Grid Construct)
Aaah Grasshopper, you're not ready for this quest. Seeking Bo's great wealth of knowledge is paramount over my simpleton charts and interjections
Robonacci com
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