haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

Quoting khanderoo

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What is below is a conclusion of different books I have read plus what is said here about "Trading Philosophy". I have read it for more than 10 times & I'm planing to read it every trading morning. Good to have this fully absorbed during your trading.
It is very very good for me. I hope it would be great for everybody. This is what I'm planing to be a mental frame work for my trading. This will be updated as I (or any trader) continues his way ...

Dear Hani, I would be pleased if you add/edit statements to this.
With Regards,

My Trading Philosophy: My Mental Framework of Trading (Better title here as you mentioned in the post title, as this is not your trading philosophy)

· Emotional Control (Great point)

1. It is very difficult to learn how to trade if I’m under a great deal of financial pressure: I shouldn’t expect to become a successful trader You should define this per your criteria: Would it be a full time work, a 30% return per year, 300 pips per month... if I have a limited trading capital same, what is limited capital for you? 1K, 10K, more less? or I’m trading with money I can’t afford to lose.
   
2. Trade with no fear: Fear will limit my learning’s. I should NOT care to be right or wrong; it will help it to be easier to move in & out of a position, cutting my losses short to make myself available to take the next opportunity.
   Don't forget the greed emotion that will let you go into a trade at the wrong time, or refrain you to cut your losses at the right time hoping for the trade to return in your direction
3. Defining a tolerance of taking a loss that I’m completely comfortable with to avoid pain & fear and trade accordingly & flawlessly: This will let the market teach me about myself & itself. I should stick to it till it has become a second nature in me and the positive cycle (gaining confidence in myself => learning more => making money => gaining more confidence) has been formed. After that I could increase my risk, step by step.

· Ability to change my mind to flow with the market Very important: To stay open minded

1. Take only what market offers me, NOT what I expect.
   
2. The market is always right Yes, but traders are not, and when they realize that, the market will turn and you should always be ready for these turns, mainly during news time: Because the balance of sell & buy’s will define the market way, this has nothing to do with what I think about it.
3. The fewer acceptances I have for different types of market behavior, the more the market will turn on me: In one moment it is satisfying all my needs & the next it’s a greedy monster taking away every thing from me!

· Self-Discipline

1. My focus: To learn from the market NOT request money from it; this will cause to determine that:
   1. I should take total responsibility & don’t blame the market. Exactly! Never use the term 'only if I have' or 'only if the prices have gone 1 more pip'...
   2. To understand that mistakes don’t exist; they are only pointing the way to me.
   3. There is no missing opportunity: Missed opportunities are trades that could have always turned out perfectly because they are only in my mind were anything is possible!! If it was possible for us to have it, we would. Besides as long as the market is moving there is no real missing opportunity it is just a matter of time. Yes. There will always be good opportunities in the future; never regret the 'lost' opportunities.
      
   4. Seeing a partial of my capital as tuition for being educated from the market: This will release my energy to learn and money, a by-product will come. Yes, but only partial. If this is repeated again and again, there's definitely a major review of the way you trade that should be done.
      

2. Plan your trades, Trade your plans: I will look at Daily time frame for taking long-term positions & M15 for short-term ones. At the beginning of my trading day, I will consider all situations that the price could take. Then, I will make a plan for every one of those situations including when to get in & out, how much to take risk according to its Reward:Risk ratio (After releasing my mind from the way that market go, I have realized that Reward:Risk ratio is most important to consider when opening a position) R:R is very important, but in relation to winning ratio too. If you have a poor R:R and a big winning ratio this would still be a winning strategy too. It is important to have a winning edge in your strategy.
   
3. Dealing with losses:
   1. Predefine what a loss is in every potential trade: Determining what the market does to tell me that the trade no longer represents an opportunity at least in my time frame. This has to be precisely defined in your trading strategy.
      
   2. Execute my losing trades immediately upon perception that they exist: to avoid fear & bad experience, to release my energy to take advantage of next opportunity. Good point. Many times, when you are blocked in a losing trade that will eventually turn to be a winning one after a while, you will not be able to enter many others because of your money management rules.

4. Becoming an expert in identifying significant reference levels. So there will be no belief to buy or sell. I will be just looking for signs & opportunities. This is what will become your automated trading system
   
5. Monitoring myself in trading and analyzing the results at the end of each working day & week. Very important to be done, to determine where it failed and why, where it worked and why... What to expect for next day/week and how to improve.
   

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Quoting haniam

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If the dollar breaks the record 1.4967 and manages to go above 1.5000 this will be collapse for the markets and the dollar at the moment.

I believe this level will be defended very strongly. Just watch the wicks at this level (Inside the red circles). It has never been able yet to close over 1.49xx, just a quick test and a strong rejection.

Big Dogs can not, YET, afford the break over these levels and they have very big positions they are willing to close here. Be extra carefull if buying at these levels.

The previous 2 days have brought us tons of pips on the short side, and unless the level is broken, I will still be selling massively all attempts at these levels for hundreds of pips rewards.

Today NFP will, in a way or another, and whatever the result would be, break the range for the EU. Have you noticed how NFP is being lately just a market volatility moving news independently of its data?

It will provide us a last opportunity to go short at the best entry possible for this quarter for an incredible R:R

Safe trading to all

Scenario 2 is still in play.

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Quoting haniam

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The perfect opportunity (1:10-1:20 R:R) to sell was given last Friday on NFP between 1.4920 and 1.4940.

Short term trades were closed @1.4820 for +100 pips

Today we had the opportunity to close middle term trades @1.4590- 1.4600 (Main support) for +300 pips

Long term trades are still running targeting 1.44xx, 1.4315,1.3980 and lower (Yellow dotted line). Moving SL to 1.4835.

Unless 1.4716 is broken, the bias is still strongly down and we will take every opportunity to sell all retraces targeting 30-50 pips for short term, 1.4590, 1.4470 (Green dotted lines)

We will add to position on a break of 1.4560

Scenario 2 is still in play.

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Quoting Bakuli

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Hi Haniam

Brilliant analysis from you as ever. Well done !

Lee

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Quoting khanderoo

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Dear Hani,
Thanks for the great opportunity that you have shared with us, helping us trade at a new level. Newly I have noticed that there is a very good possibility to trade & make tons of pips only in "Asian Session Range Market". I am seeing it for below reasons:

1. Being a range market most of the times: This being range, will give us a very good chance to be predictable and causing our wining ratio to be higher IF we make a complete plan for how to trade it.
   
2. Money Management: Because its often a 25~30 pips range it will give us more space to play with our money management letting the 0.5~1% risk per trade to be repeated 2~4 times per session. And if successfully repeated every time, alone it will give us very high returns with less effort.

I just wanted to share my thoughts with you, to see what is your opinion about it.

Happy pip harvesting,

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The importance of analysis
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bakuli http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Haniam

Brilliant analysis from you as ever. Well done !

Lee

Thank you Lee.

I hope this has given the 'needed proof' of the importance of making a daily plan based on the market analysis before putting trades.

The most important thing to know when you trade is what direction to trade and when to stop and, maybe, reverse before trading.

Happy safe trading to all,

Hani

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One more reason not to use a Demo account
I already emphasized on the fact that demo accounts are Big Dogs traps, Brokers' traps specifically.

They not only do not offer you the very important emotion part of trading, they are totally inaccurate in price feed, mainly when there's some volatility in the market, and where you would be losing in a live account, you won't in a Demo.

Below is an example taken few minutes ago from the same broker, 7 minute after a middle impact news, the left panel being from a live account and the right from the demo: Too much big difference, unless you are trading the daily TF!

Quoting Bakuli

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Hi Haniam

I totally agree with you there ! I think demo accounts give people a false sense of security and is inaccurate. It is nowhere near live trading when emotions become a major part in the way we manage our trades. A word of caution though for all newbies...start off small...as small as you can get while learning to trade on the live account because the probability to blow away your account is very high indeed ! Call it tuition fees if you like !

Lee

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I wonder how they do it to us... do they do it individually to the trader or to whoever was in the trap that they have set? Can you briefly share it with us?

Quoting haniam

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The resistance today proved to be very strong and allowed us to reenter middle term trades as per the plan. The strong bias down move allowed us to reach all the targets for hundreds of pips for the day, adding to position on 1.4560 break.

The down move may retrace a little now before resuming. It will need to break 1.43xx area.

Scenario 2 is still in play.

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Quoting haniam

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The retrace is still under run, but is approaching a good resistance on the 1.4690-1.4710 area which will be a great opportunity to reenter the previously closed mid term and short term trades with small 30 pips risk and hundreds of pips targets at 1.4550 and 1.4450. A break of 1.4550 will let us enter in the yellow trading zone.

Green dotted line illustrate this.

The yellow dotted line shows the overall downward retrace move from the all time high that may extend under 1.4000 in the coming months or even weeks.

Things will turn for a bigger retracement up if 1.4720 is broken, and we may be leaving the green region and reentering the red region for a retest of 1.48xx level.

Please note that all this move does not harm the main uptrend direction of the EU pair.

Scenario 2 is still in play

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Quoting haniam

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The retrace is still under run, but is approaching a good resistance on the 1.4690-1.4710 area which will be a great opportunity to reenter the previously closed mid term and short term trades with small 30 pips risk and hundreds of pips targets at 1.4550 and 1.4450. A break of 1.4550 will let us enter in the yellow trading zone.

Green dotted line illustrate this.

The yellow dotted line shows the overall downward retrace move from the all time high that may extend under 1.4000 in the coming months or even weeks.

Things will turn for a bigger retracement up if 1.4720 is broken, and we may be leaving the green region and reentering the red region for a retest of 1.48xx level.

Please note that all this move does not harm the main uptrend direction of the EU pair.

Scenario 2 is still in play

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Quoting khanderoo

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WOW! First I didn't consider how great this advanced MM strategy could be. Now, When I'm reading it once again & Just staring (looking consistently) at the chart for about 10 minutes I realized this is very perfect! You could mix this MM with entering at significant reference levels for very high profits with lowered as possible risk & NO more hoping for the others to enter the whey you did, massively at once.

AS ALWAYS THANKS MR. HANI FOR SHARING THESE GREAT TOOLS. I'VE LEARNED A LOT FROM YOU. GOD GIVES YOU TONS OF PIPS FREE OF RISK!

I Really hope, I could do something in return.

Best Regards,

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Quoting haniam

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This AMM strategy requires patience and confidence to be successfully applied.

1- Patience to wait for a strong S/R level. This may take days...
2- Confidence to apply it without fear or greed
3- Calculation for not letting exitement take over and b burned if S/R breaks directly.

Happy that you find it usefull, because it is

P.S.: A small correction to the previous chart, the third entry should be with 4 % risk and not 3, as exiting 66% of 3 lost would free only 1, since the second one is protecting the position still opened. The exit would then be 75% or 3% risk, 1% will protect the not closed position and the other 2% will be added to the 3% freed. Hope this makes sense.

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