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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #461
  • Edited Jan 27, 2008 2:13am Jan 26, 2008 6:01am | Edited Jan 27, 2008 2:13am
Quoting john15689
I sincerely appreciate your advices and comments. Thank you haniam

About candle-patterns: i mainly look for "long shadows", but sometimes also "short day", "spinning top/bottom", "doji".

About exits: i mainly use trailing stop. I usually use targets in range. However i am still working about "exit" becouse i can not see easly targets. If you can comment about this, i appreciate it.

In the future charts i will try to be more precise

good trading

From italy
Entering a trade is somehow tricky. It may be on a predetermined level, after certain conditions have been met, or at an impulse, an urge feeling to be into the trade to "not miss the train".

I think that exiting the trade is the most difficult part, because it deals with the inside deep feeling of the trader and it triggers two conflict feelings: Fear and greed.

This will let the trade to be exited for a 20 pips loss 'just' before it goes back in our direction and make the 50 pips we were 'hoping' for, or let us stay in a winning trade expecting for a better result and here the trade turning and becoming a losing one. Or worst of things, and believe me it happens too much time, to let the losses run 'hoping' that the trade will turn back, until eventually discovering that it will not and the loss is now too big, if not taking all the account balance.

An "automated system" can help get rid of these negative emotions.

So the best way to exit is the same that we use to enter the trade: following the trade plan previously established.

The plan can specify that the exit point is when either it hit the SL, or the trailing stop. It may include multiple target point, and every time a target is hit, we partially exit and move the stop to the previous level, protecting our gains and letting the trade run.

If you use the daily pivot levels as entry, it may be good to use the related daily resistance and support as exit levels.

If you use candle patterns as entries, candle patterns can help for a good exit. Same for Fibonacci levels.

A fixed number of pips for SL and TP can same be used systematically. Lot of strategies are based on this and if they have just a small edge, they will be winning strategies.

So the optimized exit levels will depend on the trading style, but they must definitely be part of the trading plan and be strictly followed to have the chance to provide consistently winning results.
  • #462
  • Jan 26, 2008 8:35am Jan 26, 2008 8:35am
kind and clear as always !

have a nice weekend

From italy
  • #463
  • Jan 27, 2008 6:06am Jan 27, 2008 6:06am
Quote
So the optimized exit levels will depend on the trading style, but they must definitely be part of the trading plan and be strictly followed to have the chance to provide consistently winning results.

Hi Hani,

Very good advise as always. How true it is ! Many a times when I didn't have a pre-determined exit plan, I have often let winners turn into losses or small losses into big ones.
I now use a combination of exit strategies, depending on what method I am following. When trading off pivots, I prefer to take 50-75 % of profit at the half-way point to my target (eg from pivot to R1) and let the rest run with a trailing stop loss.

Lee
  • #464
  • Jan 27, 2008 11:49pm Jan 27, 2008 11:49pm
Today trading plan. Kindly check & advise for any comments you wish.

With Best Regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-080128-plan.jpg Size: 136 KB
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #465
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:19am Jan 28, 2008 1:19am
Quoting khanderoo
Today trading plan. Kindly check & advise for any comments you wish.

With Best Regards,
Volatile week in perspective.

I know that a photo can be better than a thousand word, but still I think you need to be more precise in your plan by explicitly putting the main S/R, when to enter and when to exit...

Remember this: If you can not precisely define your entry and exit for the day, you won't be able to really automate your system and you will have to stick all the day long to your screen and let your emotion plays in your decisons.

The plan you wrote on the chart, exception for point 2, could be applied to any day, so it is more a general trading plan than today's plan.
  • #466
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:44am Jan 28, 2008 1:44am
My daily pivot level is @1.4709

We have only one news that seems to be with a no change expectation at 15:00 GMT

We are trading now in a 50 pips range, and the market is trying to find a way to go. Unless PL is broken, down side is favored.

Technicals today are the key.

We can trade:

1- The range selling a bounce of PL with 10 pips SL targeting 25 and 50 pips, and buying 1.4660 bounce same targets.

2- Buy the PL break targeting 1.4730, 1.4760 and 1.4800

3- Sell the support break targeting 1.4640, 1.4615 and 1.4590

I do not expect lot of surprises today. London open in 15 minutes may give some spikes we may trade to enter as per the plan.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080128-EU-M15-AM.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #467
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:53am Jan 28, 2008 3:53am
Thanks for the comment BUT I would like to inform you on my idea. Please let me know what you think about it:

Dynamic Trading:

a. Analyze the day calender to watch for important news.
b. Sort out the Main (This includes Daily, Weekly, Monthly time frames) Support & Resistances (fibo, pivot, S/R's, Trend lines, Channels)

-By now, We have widen the trap + we are totally open minded we really don't even care about were the price is going. Now we are looking for the birds to take the seed (Were ever they go, we will have a trap for them there!!). A clear confirmation of "the birds has come", is the spikes made @ Support OR Resistance levels.

c. Now is the time to attack & NOT be offensive. S/L will be determined by near high/low. T/P: if in a range market-> nearest S/R, if in a trending market-> moving S/L from previous high/low candle plus/minus one.
d. Will target only 25 pips in total per day BUT continuous in week & month & the rest, if we have time we will paractice with paper trading. If not, we will make our self ready for the next day (Doing some exercise to be mentally ready for winning, Taking some rest, Having some sport, ...). I think if I am going to select trading as a job, I should look at it like one & like sportsman I should always have a ready body for competitions.

Any thoughts would be appreciated,
With true respect,
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #468
  • Jan 28, 2008 5:23am Jan 28, 2008 5:23am
Quoting khanderoo
Thanks for the comment BUT I would like to inform you on my idea. Please let me know what you think about it:

Dynamic Trading:

a. Analyze the day calender to watch for important news.
Very important to expect excessive daily volatility time

b. Sort out the Main (This includes Daily, Weekly, Monthly time frames) Support & Resistances (fibo, pivot, S/R's, Trend lines, Channels)
This is important. But obviously, you will not need to check the monthly TF everyday. Maybe once a week.

-By now, We have widen the trap + we are totally open minded (This is a very important point, to be open minded. It is not because a market is overxxx that is will not continue in the same direction for expemle,) we really don't even care about were the price is going. (indeed, we can always trade in both direction like today and still get plenty of pips) Now we are looking for the birds to take the seed (Were ever they go, we will have a trap for them there!!). A clear confirmation of "the birds has come", is the spikes made @ Support OR Resistance levels.
For the Big Dogs, you and I are the birds to catch, and they are having the trap for us. Whenever you get pips, you are taking it from the ones they where trying to get. More pips for you, less pips for them. I think the important is to avoid BD traps, and spikes may be one of these.


c. Now is the time to attack & NOT be offensive (I think you mean NOT be defensive, as to be offensive==to attack). S/L will be determined by near high/low. T/P: if in a range market-> nearest S/R, if in a trending market-> moving S/L from previous high/low candle plus/minus one.
This may be a good exit to go with your strategy to include in your trading plan.

d. Will target only 25 pips in total per day BUT continuous in week & month & the rest (To put inthe trading plan), if we have time we will paractice with paper trading. If not, we will make our self ready for the next day (Doing some exercise to be mentally ready for winning, Taking some rest, Having some sport, ...). I think if I am going to select trading as a job, I should look at it like one & like sportsman I should always have a ready body for competitions. (To put inthe trading phylosophy)

Any thoughts would be appreciated,
With true respect,
Comments in blue.

I think there's some mixture here between the trading phylosophy, the trading plan and the daily plan.

The trading phylosophy:
It is the way you see the market you are trading, like in the 'b' part in the quote.
You will create a trading plan (Or many) based on your phylosophy

The trading plan:
You will put here how you will trade the market based on your trading phylosophy. What are the precise conditions that will let you go in and out of a trade?

The daily (weekly...) plan:
You will put your war plan before you enter the battle field.
When you are at war, you have no time to think. You may reevaluate your plan in you suffer many casualities when you can manage some calm moment (when the market calms down) , but if you have no war plan, you will lose the battle (the trade) and eventually lose the war (blow your account) at a longer term. This is why you need to explicitly know precisely your entry and exit levels before entering a trade.
  • #469
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:07pm Jan 28, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting haniam
My daily pivot level is @1.4709

We have only one news that seems to be with a no change expectation at 15:00 GMT

We are trading now in a 50 pips range, and the market is trying to find a way to go. Unless PL is broken, down side is favored.

Technicals today are the key.

We can trade:

1- The range selling a bounce of PL with 10 pips SL targeting 25 and 50 pips, and buying 1.4660 bounce same targets.

2- Buy the PL break targeting 1.4730, 1.4760 and 1.4800

3- Sell the support break targeting 1.4640, 1.4615 and 1.4590

I do not expect lot of surprises today. London open in 15 minutes may give some spikes we may trade to enter as per the plan.

Attachment
We had a perfect technical trading day as per the text book. This may show us the extreme power of planing your trades and tarding your plan.

All targets have been reached:

Point 1 gave us both +25 and +50 pips.
Point 2 gave us the 3 targets for +20 and + 35 pips for first target, + 25 for second target and +35 for third target.
Point 3 was not triggered.

Any newbie trader would have got at least 25-50 pips today by following any kind of trading plan, and it was easy enough to grab the full move from 1.4670 to 1.4790 with practicaly no risks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080128-EU-M15-PM.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #470
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:07pm Jan 28, 2008 2:07pm
Haniam look what is happened on aud/usd. Is this a small BD trap?

Entry : blue arrow ( is not a clear pattern but is on support )
My stop loss: under the minimum of "entry-candle"

I have indicated with red arrow the long shadow (take my stop loss)

the link of chart: http://aycu30.webshots.com/image/433...3068012_rs.jpg

from italy
  • #471
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:47am Jan 29, 2008 1:47am
Quoting john15689
Haniam look what is happened on aud/usd. Is this a small BD trap?

Entry : blue arrow ( is not a clear pattern but is on support )
My stop loss: under the minimum of "entry-candle"

I have indicated with red arrow the long shadow (take my stop loss)

the link of chart: http://aycu30.webshots.com/image/433...3068012_rs.jpg

from italy
Yes it is a small BD trap, a 'squeeze' of the prices to harvest some scalpers SL or trigger some sell stops.

You had your SL too close to your entry. A safer SL should have been a little bit lower as signaled by the green arrow I added to your chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080128-AU-M15-PM-John.gif Size: 99 KB
  • #472
  • Edited 12:30pm Jan 29, 2008 12:12pm | Edited 12:30pm
Another Big dog trap is the broker contest creation.

They promise some prizes for the 3 or 6 first persons, but they know that most will lose and even more and faster than the usual rate because of the greed of the newbie traders that will want to win the 1rst prize.

I opened a new thread under Forex discussion explaining buy a virtual sample how this may happen:

How brokers may make money out of a contest
  • #473
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:10am Jan 30, 2008 1:10am
Quoting haniam
The upper ascending trendline has contained the bull move as expected.

The BD strike again, getting the EU down more than 200 pips in less than 2 hours.

More moves like this are to be expected, and the only real thing that is still maintaining the USD as these high levels is the speculation about a possible 75 pts rate cut.

The rate decision announcement will give a decisive turning for the dollar, and unless it manages to break 1.5, the USD may go to low levels very fast.

Can you see how the 'M' pattern under construction looks like the one on the left side of the chart, but in a much bigger size? We may have a double top confirmation in the coming weeks. A final decisive retest of 1.49xx levels is still expected in the coming 2 weeks.

Scenario 2 is still in play.

Attachment
Today is a BD day. They will have the full power to squeeze the market a little way in both directions to get the most Stops they can, while brokers will be widening spreads at will. If you do not now what you are doing, stay aside of the market starting 19:00 GMT

Today traders are expecting 0.5 cut in interest rate, and most of this is already taken into consideration in the current price.

1- If they cut 0.75, not very likely, we will see a retest of 1.49 levels and an attempt to break over this level, as per the yellow dotted line on the chart.

2- If they cut 0.5 as expected, prices will be pushed first to the up, then to down as sellers in the 1.49 areas are in big volume.

3- If they cut 0.25 or do not cut, this will be a surprise and will start in force a recovery for the USD as per the green dotted line on the chart.

Red dotted lines scenario may happen if 1.5 is successfully broken, which is very unlikely for the moment.

Scenario 2 is still in play.

I will be searching to take a long term position trade on the short side targeting hundreds of pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080130-EU-D1-AM.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #474
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:55am Jan 31, 2008 12:55am
Quoting haniam
Today is a BD day. They will have the full power to squeeze the market a little way in both directions to get the most Stops they can, while brokers will be widening spreads at will. If you do not now what you are doing, stay aside of the market starting 19:00 GMT

Today traders are expecting 0.5 cut in interest rate, and most of this is already taken into consideration in the current price.

1- If they cut 0.75, not very likely, we will see a retest of 1.49 levels and an attempt to break over this level, as per the yellow dotted line on the chart.

2- If they cut 0.5 as expected, prices will be pushed first to the up, then to down as sellers in the 1.49 areas are in big volume.

3- If they cut 0.25 or do not cut, this will be a surprise and will start in force a recovery for the USD as per the green dotted line on the chart.

Red dotted lines scenario may happen if 1.5 is successfully broken, which is very unlikely for the moment.

Scenario 2 is still in play.

I will be searching to take a long term position trade on the short side targeting hundreds of pips.

Attachment
Yesterday we had a cut of 0.5 and the prices reacted exactly as expected in point 2, 1.49 areas rejecting with lot of sells.

We still have good opportunities to go massively short at these levels with extremely low risk and extremely hi profit ratio.

I personnaly doubt that the prices may reach 1.5 levels and I am selling 1.4910 trendline bounces targeting under 1.4, as per the yellow dotted line on the chart, for position trades (SL above 1.5030) and few hundred pips for other trades (Smaller SL)

I expect EU to go sharply low in the coming days, and the only real thing that still holding it at 1.48-1.49 levels is some late reaction to the rate cut and tomorrows NFP, that will make a turn for the $ recovery if 1.5 is not broken

Scenario 2 is still in play.

Happy and safe trading to all.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080131-EU-D1-AM.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #475
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:32am Jan 31, 2008 2:32am
Quoting haniam
Yesterday we had a cut of 0.5 and the prices reacted exactly as expected in point 2, 1.49 areas rejecting with lot of sells.

We still have good opportunities to go massively short at these levels with extremely low risk and extremely hi profit ratio.

I personnaly doubt that the prices may reach 1.5 levels and I am selling 1.4910 trendline bounces targeting under 1.4, as per the yellow dotted line on the chart, for position trades (SL above 1.5030) and few hundred pips for other trades (Smaller SL)

I expect EU to go sharply low in the coming days, and the only real thing that still holding it at 1.48-1.49 levels is some late reaction to the rate cut and tomorrows NFP, that will make a turn for the $ recovery if 1.5 is not broken

Scenario 2 is still in play.

Happy and safe trading to all.

Attachment
Short term positions sold @1.4910 closed @1.4840 (Pivot level) for +70 pips
Will sell again on higher levels
  • #476
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:01am Jan 31, 2008 4:01am
Haniam I enjoy Your simple method of taking pips from BD.
I am learning from You and one day I know my account will grow steady.
Thank You Haniam !
Zuzia9
  • #477
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:06am Jan 31, 2008 4:06am
Quoting zuzia9
Haniam I enjoy Your simple method of taking pips from BD.
I am learning from You and one day I know my account will grow steady.
Thank You Haniam !
Zuzia9
You are welcome Zuzia9!

I am waiting for your trading and daily plan when you are ready.

Regards,

Hani
  • #478
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:41am Jan 31, 2008 4:41am
My plan for January 30 was :
Nr1 / close my long position from 1.4783 - above 1.49xx on second candle
close after doji and bounce from tradline.
Reaction very slow , close position 1.4859.

Nr2/ Sell 1.49xx =target pivot point 1.4841 .
Not executed!!!!

Nr3/ Long 1.4939 - Target 1.50 with 30pips TLS

Have a grate trading I go sleep is 2.39 am Pacific Time !!!
Zuzia 9
  • #479
  • Feb 1, 2008 2:09am Feb 1, 2008 2:09am
Quoting haniam
Yesterday we had a cut of 0.5 and the prices reacted exactly as expected in point 2, 1.49 areas rejecting with lot of sells.

We still have good opportunities to go massively short at these levels with extremely low risk and extremely hi profit ratio.

I personnaly doubt that the prices may reach 1.5 levels and I am selling 1.4910 trendline bounces targeting under 1.4, as per the yellow dotted line on the chart, for position trades (SL above 1.5030) and few hundred pips for other trades (Smaller SL)

I expect EU to go sharply low in the coming days, and the only real thing that still holding it at 1.48-1.49 levels is some late reaction to the rate cut and tomorrows NFP, that will make a turn for the $ recovery if 1.5 is not broken

Scenario 2 is still in play.

Happy and safe trading to all.

Attachment
If the dollar breaks the record 1.4967 and manages to go above 1.5000 this will be collapse for the markets and the dollar at the moment.

I believe this level will be defended very strongly. Just watch the wicks at this level (Inside the red circles). It has never been able yet to close over 1.49xx, just a quick test and a strong rejection.

Big Dogs can not, YET, afford the break over these levels and they have very big positions they are willing to close here. Be extra carefull if buying at these levels.

The previous 2 days have brought us tons of pips on the short side, and unless the level is broken, I will still be selling massively all attempts at these levels for hundreds of pips rewards.

Today NFP will, in a way or another, and whatever the result would be, break the range for the EU. Have you noticed how NFP is being lately just a market volatility moving news independently of its data?

It will provide us a last opportunity to go short at the best entry possible for this quarter for an incredible R:R

Safe trading to all

Scenario 2 is still in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080201-EU-D1-AM.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #480
  • Edited 10:01am Feb 1, 2008 9:05am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting haniam
If the dollar breaks the record 1.4967 and manages to go above 1.5000 this will be collapse for the markets and the dollar at the moment.

I believe this level will be defended very strongly. Just watch the wicks at this level (Inside the red circles). It has never been able yet to close over 1.49xx, just a quick test and a strong rejection.

Big Dogs can not, YET, afford the break over these levels and they have very big positions they are willing to close here. Be extra carefull if buying at these levels.

The previous 2 days have brought us tons of pips on the short side, and unless the level is broken, I will still be selling massively all attempts at these levels for hundreds of pips rewards.

Today NFP will, in a way or another, and whatever the result would be, break the range for the EU. Have you noticed how NFP is being lately just a market volatility moving news independently of its data?

It will provide us a last opportunity to go short at the best entry possible for this quarter for an incredible R:R

Safe trading to all

Scenario 2 is still in play.

Attachment
Tons of pips raining on us!
Don't get caught in Big Dog plays!

Safe trading to all.

Hani
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