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  • #4,021
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:10am Jan 31, 2008 3:10am
If it plays around 1.4800 I think i am going to go long at 1.4800ish w/ PT @ 1.4990 area SL will be at 1.4700 for variability.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #4,022
  • Jan 31, 2008 6:01am Jan 31, 2008 6:01am
Good morning everyone. Here's what I am working on today. All countertrend.

EURUSD - Continuing to look for opportunities to set shorts near the 4891 area. Targeting 4716 on a daily basis.


http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...r1-31-2008.PNG

USDJPY - Look for longs out of the range bottom approaching 105.60. Target is 107.71 on a daily basis.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...y1-31-2008.PNG

USDCHF - Looking to set longs on a move back above 1.0823 for today.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...f1-31-2008.PNG
  • #4,023
  • Jan 31, 2008 6:59am Jan 31, 2008 6:59am
There is no range on USDCHF!!! They just had new low (1.0782).
IMHO is better to trade breaks from range (as they always break either way ) then trading within those boundaries.
  • #4,024
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:00am Jan 31, 2008 7:00am
I understand and don't blame you. My ranges are not typical and in my experience there are many more false breaks than true breaks from any range.

Quoting SammyJ
There is no range on USDCHF!!! They just had new low (1.0782).
IMHO is better to trade breaks from range (as they always break either way ) then trading within those boundaries.
  • #4,025
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:07am Jan 31, 2008 7:07am
In my opinion , any range trading is a lost cause , but if thats what works for you , go for it.

Trading against major trend (your suggestion on USDCHF) is really risky , and it may pay you a penny once in a while but on the long run is gonna cost you. All in my VHO.
  • #4,026
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:15am Jan 31, 2008 7:15am
I agree with you and that is what most should do.

Do you realize the following....


Markets (any market) only trend about 6% of all trading days?

The other 84% are spent in normal or normal variation days. In other words, RANGE TRADING. Think about this for a moment. Most people think exactly the opposite.

I have spent most of my trading career working to identify the ranges the market trades in 84% of the time.
  • #4,027
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:23am Jan 31, 2008 7:23am
Not at all . Market (forex ) is always in a trend . From time to time we are moving sideways , but always with trend in our minds. If you suggested intraday trade then you can argue daily range , and moves within , but since ( and I hope I read it correctly ) you are suggesting trade over several days , having trend in mind is way to go. This may (or may not ) be THE bottom on USDCHF , but anybody who is long enough in this biz will tall you it is better to wait for trend to change then to position yourself against the trend (Trend is your Friend).

I am not trying to undermine you , just to help!
  • #4,028
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:26am Jan 31, 2008 7:26am
Thanks. Maybe I can finally make some money in this business with some good advice.
  • #4,029
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:31am Jan 31, 2008 7:31am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Good morning everyone. Here's what I am working on today. All countertrend.

EURUSD - Continuing to look for opportunities to set shorts near the 4891 area. Targeting 4716 on a daily basis.


http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...r1-31-2008.PNG

USDJPY - Look for longs out of the range bottom approaching 105.60. Target is 107.71 on a daily basis.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...y1-31-2008.PNG

USDCHF - Looking to set longs on a move back above 1.0823 for today.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...f1-31-2008.PNG
Why do want to go short around 1.4891?
Thanks
  • #4,030
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:34am Jan 31, 2008 7:34am
You're welcome

I guess you see me as an intruder (me posting here since 2007 and you since 2005 ) , and that is ok.

All in all , we are here to help each other .
  • #4,031
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:37am Jan 31, 2008 7:37am
No absolutely not Sammy. I enjoy the conversation. We should probably talk about the Swissy somewhere else though or they will yell at us.

This is a tuff business. Been a tuff year for me.
  • #4,032
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:48am Jan 31, 2008 7:48am
Stoci just looks weaker and weaker...buyer are out of gas. IMO

We have until march to hit 1.50, so what until then?

I am not willing to put money behind my call at this point though.

huge open interest in March 1.54 calls and puts...likely target price, perhaps.
  • #4,033
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:11am Jan 31, 2008 8:11am
Here's what I have for the dollar index

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=11
  • #4,034
  • Jan 31, 2008 9:23am Jan 31, 2008 9:23am
When the price will break one of the lines of the flat, the pair will go in one of the sides, no matter up or down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 121.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #4,035
  • Jan 31, 2008 11:50am Jan 31, 2008 11:50am
Coin flip?

Kills me to watch all the money making action go by untouched, but it's just too darn risky, IMO.
  • #4,036
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:29pm Jan 31, 2008 2:29pm
really, investors dont know what the hell to do,
thats why probably ton of whisawps on eu.

is concerning how the ecb dont give nothing from the euroarea weakening funamdentals and they still keep bullish.
reports going into negative and Trichet keep saying subprime has basically unaffected euro area.

sure thing is if Trichet cut at least 25bp that pair is going to tumble at least 1.45.
  • #4,037
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:46pm Jan 31, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting acidguy
........ if Trichet cut at least 25bp that pair is going to tumble at least 1.45.

If my grandma had balls, she would be my grandpa.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,038
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:09pm Jan 31, 2008 3:09pm
I wonder, who is the resistance at 1.500? Should be a nice breakout -- if it happens.
  • #4,039
  • Edited 6:02pm Jan 31, 2008 5:24pm | Edited 6:02pm
Eurozone inflation at 3,2%, the highest in 16 years.

Will ECB finally show it's true colors and hike once more before cutting later on?

By the way, it looks like a flag to me.
Attached Image
  • #4,040
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:25pm Jan 31, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting nonlinear
I wonder, who is the resistance at 1.500? Should be a nice breakout -- if it happens.
Its me, Ive been holdin this thing down for weeks. lol only a couple billion, thats all.
I dream, therefore I become.
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