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  • #981
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:37am Jan 10, 2007 2:37am
Quoting goodthings
Forex factory and fxcm say neg trade balance my news trading source says expect a move of 30 pips. Right now it looks down from my box.
Thanks for reply,
Maybe I am trying to establish what the real range of the GBP for today is? Above 1.94 or below 1.93?
  • #982
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:38am Jan 10, 2007 2:38am
it's a little premature but check out the hourly
  • #983
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:47am Jan 10, 2007 2:47am
Supports and resistence
Attached Image
  • #984
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:54am Jan 10, 2007 2:54am
Quoting goodthings
Forex factory and fxcm say neg trade balance my news trading source says expect a move of 30 pips. Right now it looks down from my box.
Are you talking about UK Trade Balance?
mama
  • #985
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:57am Jan 10, 2007 2:57am
yes
  • #986
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:59am Jan 10, 2007 2:59am
Yes, definitely, coming out in half an hour. Think we can aim then at 1.9345 for TP? Entry 1.9380?
Quoting Mama007
Are you talking about UK Trade Balance?
  • #987
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:03am Jan 10, 2007 3:03am
This is a quote from my news man who only trades the news.

we have Trade Balance coming out of the U.S. Market tends to care a lot less about this report than it cares for the GBP Trade Balance. Last month we had a huge shock in the trade balance out of the U.S. It came out deviating by over 4 billion on the positive side. It was the most positive reading in well over a year, and what did the GBP/USD do? It barely blipped down by 30 pips, and then went back to the pre-release price, shrugging this report off as if it had no meaning. This month, the expectation is that this report will come out at -60 billion or so

Trend will be established in the next hour or less ?
  • #988
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:09am Jan 10, 2007 3:09am
Quoting goodthings
This is a quote from my news man who only trades the news.

we have Trade Balance coming out of the U.S. Market tends to care a lot less about this report than it cares for the GBP Trade Balance. Last month we had a huge shock in the trade balance out of the U.S. It came out deviating by over 4 billion on the positive side. It was the most positive reading in well over a year, and what did the GBP/USD do? It barely blipped down by 30 pips, and then went back to the pre-release price, shrugging this report off as if it had no meaning. This month, the expectation is that this report will come out at -60 billion or so

Trend will be established in the next hour or less ?
Are you shorting here @ 1.9395?
  • #989
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:12am Jan 10, 2007 3:12am
Quoting goodthings
This is a quote from my news man who only trades the news.

we have Trade Balance coming out of the U.S. Market tends to care a lot less about this report than it cares for the GBP Trade Balance. Last month we had a huge shock in the trade balance out of the U.S. It came out deviating by over 4 billion on the positive side. It was the most positive reading in well over a year, and what did the GBP/USD do? It barely blipped down by 30 pips, and then went back to the pre-release price, shrugging this report off as if it had no meaning. This month, the expectation is that this report will come out at -60 billion or so

Trend will be established in the next hour or less ?
All fair, but don`t you think that the Gbp needs a catalyst to push it downside? Am I busy with a MT outlook? A surprise will obviously push to the 1.9445/60 level. Just trying to understand where this is heading for the week. Today is already Wednesday.
  • #990
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:13am Jan 10, 2007 3:13am
I have a short order at 9385
  • #991
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:17am Jan 10, 2007 3:17am
Only technically speaking, I think we would all agree that this down move in the dailys should be classified, as of yet, as a retracement. There is a strong positive reversal, already confirmed that should take us back up to the nov-dec high or beyond. The recent turn in the 4hr chart was very significant as the pullback from 5AM yesterday to 9PM ET yesterday found support in the RSI at the bottom range for oversold bull run. This all occuring at the same time as many positive reversals on all different timeframes. Any news contrary to this move should only produce temporary moves and any news confirming this technical view will propel price back up towards its recent high. Albeit I am speaking on a longer term timeframe, however, being where the 4 hr charts are at this moment as well as some of the shorter term tick charts, I feel a short play is extremely risky at best and wouldn't merit more than a very tight scalp or a play on the news if it so happens to go that way. Just an opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #992
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:20am Jan 10, 2007 3:20am
Quoting Leugimp
Only technically speaking, I think we would all agree that this down move in the dailys should be classified, as of yet, as a retracement. There is a strong positive reversal, already confirmed that should take us back up to the nov-dec high or beyond. The recent turn in the 4hr chart was very significant as the pullback from 5AM yesterday to 9PM ET yesterday found support in the RSI at the bottom range for oversold bull run. This all occuring at the same time as many positive reversals on all different timeframes. Any news contrary to this move should only produce temporary moves and any news confirming this technical view will propel price back up towards its recent high. Albeit I am speaking on a longer term timeframe, however, being where the 4 hr charts are at this moment as well as some of the shorter term tick charts, I feel a short play is extremely risky at best and wouldn't merit more than a very tight scalp or a play on the news if it so happens to go that way. Just an opinion.
Very good call. Will follow news to see outcome.Thanks to all.
  • #993
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:37am Jan 10, 2007 3:37am
Note of interest
Attached Image
  • #994
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:41am Jan 10, 2007 3:41am
If that news can't keep a push on the down side I doubt (I am quoting me) the US news does.


<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>4:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>GBP</TD><TD class=alt1>Trade Balance</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...isc/mi_med.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-7.2B</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-6.45B</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-6.33B</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3492 align=middle>[read]</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
  • #995
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:41am Jan 10, 2007 3:41am
Quoting goodthings
Note of interest
Is the dark green line the 200EMA?
  • #996
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:42am Jan 10, 2007 3:42am
Quoting Leugimp
Only technically speaking, I think we would all agree that this down move in the dailys should be classified, as of yet, as a retracement. There is a strong positive reversal, already confirmed that should take us back up to the nov-dec high or beyond. The recent turn in the 4hr chart was very significant as the pullback from 5AM yesterday to 9PM ET yesterday found support in the RSI at the bottom range for oversold bull run. This all occuring at the same time as many positive reversals on all different timeframes. Any news contrary to this move should only produce temporary moves and any news confirming this technical view will propel price back up towards its recent high. Albeit I am speaking on a longer term timeframe, however, being where the 4 hr charts are at this moment as well as some of the shorter term tick charts, I feel a short play is extremely risky at best and wouldn't merit more than a very tight scalp or a play on the news if it so happens to go that way. Just an opinion.
Wish I had listened to you and not entered the but I did take your advice and used a very tight stop loss
mama
  • #997
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:44am Jan 10, 2007 3:44am
Quoting Mama007
Wish I had listened to you and not entered the but I did take your advice and used a very tight stop loss
How do you know it won't still go your way. Mine is just an opinion, but if you entered on your own reason, you should exit based on that same reason and nothing else.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #998
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:45am Jan 10, 2007 3:45am
yes
Quoting cesarnc
Is the dark green line the 200EMA?
  • #999
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:46am Jan 10, 2007 3:46am
Quoting goodthings
If that news can't keep a push on the down side I doubt (I am quoting me) the US news does.


<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>4:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>GBP</TD><TD class=alt1>Trade Balance</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...isc/mi_med.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-7.2B</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-6.45B</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-6.33B</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3492 align=middle>[read]</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
I think there has just been alot more emphasis on US news and alot more uncertainty on how the fed will act in the coming months.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,000
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:46am Jan 10, 2007 3:46am
Quoting Leugimp
How do you know it won't still go your way. Mine is just an opinion, but if you entered on your own reason, you should exit based on that same reason and nothing else.
I was trying to be smart and trade the news !!!
mama
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