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  • #3,981
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:22pm Jan 30, 2008 4:22pm
Remember, Asia has not yet digested the rate cut, and the probability of more.
I say we're hitting 1.50 tonight.
I'm a wimp, however, so I TP'd at 1.4900 on all but 1 of my positions.
  • #3,982
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:27pm Jan 30, 2008 4:27pm


Quoting TIckerShuffl
EURUSD going to 1.44....

  • #3,983
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:28pm Jan 30, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting falcon232
Remember, Asia has not yet digested the rate cut, and the probability of more.
I say we're hitting 1.50 tonight.
I'm a wimp, however, so I TP'd at 1.4900 on all but 1 of my positions.
Falcon you are correct..
I am waiting for it to make a Bullish base..
1.4832 is my target..

In Asia time it will go to 1.4920 levels.. And if successfull to cross it will rally..

But remember Equities are showing Down in Asia, so that will effect on EUR/USD..
  • #3,984
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:30pm Jan 30, 2008 4:30pm
I just sold short.

Stimulus package passed in Senate.

Dollar coming back, NFP payrolls better than expected??

The fact it's giving up the gains from the rate cut, just smells funny.

Edit: This might be a short trade 30 pip stop.
  • #3,985
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:36pm Jan 30, 2008 4:36pm
Good luck brave warrior.
  • #3,986
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:21pm Jan 30, 2008 5:21pm
I think it will hit 61.8 @ 1.4832.
Then i'm long till 1.5.

Missed most of the action today so i don't know if it's a good move to enter a trade, anyway, wow... i'm speachless at the market reaction on gdp and rate cut.

For example on gbp/usd the correction was all most the same as the impulse.
  • #3,987
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:26pm Jan 30, 2008 5:26pm
I watched the order flow on the CME for EC,JY and SF during and after the rate annoucement. I monitor orders that are 50 lots and higher. There were very few buyers or sellers for that matter today. There was maybe 10 orders for the EURO Futures that were > 50 and only one over 100 lots that I saw. I did not see any big buyers hitting the ask.
  • #3,988
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:33pm Jan 30, 2008 5:33pm
157.37 might be the lowest that eurjpy will hit..
I am long

will see what happens.
  • #3,989
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:36pm Jan 30, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I watched the order flow on the CME for EC,JY and SF during and after the rate annoucement. I monitor orders that are 50 lots and higher. There were very few buyers or sellers for that matter today. There was maybe 10 orders for the EURO Futures that were > 50 and only one over 100 lots that I saw. I did not see any big buyers hitting the ask.
Nice to see someone else watching T&S while trading. Great tool although a bit difficult to get in synch with. Takes lot of screen hours.
  • #3,990
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:44pm Jan 30, 2008 5:44pm
I just don't get it.

Could some of you gentlemen explain to me why the Eur is not going higher although the meltdown in US.

As I understand it, the subprime is by far mostly located in the US and the EU will be hit by bank losses and a potential modest slow down due to the problems in US but that's nothing compared to what happens in the US!!

Does anyone see that Europe don't have the same problems with the housing mess??

Regards..
  • #3,991
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:04pm Jan 30, 2008 6:04pm
Quoting _tlk_
I just don't get it.

Could some of you gentlemen explain to me why the Eur is not going higher although the meltdown in US.

As I understand it, the subprime is by far mostly located in the US and the EU will be hit by bank losses and a potential modest slow down due to the problems in US but that's nothing compared to what happens in the US!!

Does anyone see that Europe don't have the same problems with the housing mess??

Regards..

Every Bullish rally has a retracement.
My broker Analysis team emailed us an image of EUR/USD.

http://www.stifxonline.com/eurusdtriangle.gif


And i think its absolutely correct how they interpretted it.

Its following the same way as they mentioned.. I am long from 1.4817
  • #3,992
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:13pm Jan 30, 2008 6:13pm
Currencies are a supply and demand commodity. The run up in the US was on extremely low volume. Don't you think the housing meltdown in the US is priced into the EUR by now. It is old news.

What is happening is that the market is filling in back to where the real demand is located.

I would encourage you to reserve judgement on the US being in a meltdown. The world loves to think this, but I for one do not think it is going to come to pass.

I think the EURUSD has a lot of down left to go.


Quoting _tlk_
I just don't get it.

Could some of you gentlemen explain to me why the Eur is not going higher although the meltdown in US.

As I understand it, the subprime is by far mostly located in the US and the EU will be hit by bank losses and a potential modest slow down due to the problems in US but that's nothing compared to what happens in the US!!

Does anyone see that Europe don't have the same problems with the housing mess??

Regards..
  • #3,993
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:22pm Jan 30, 2008 6:22pm
Thank you for your answers.

But where to go from now??

The ECB is a hawk on inflation and will propably not lower rates for some time now, while the FED is likely to continue.

What are yours projections for this pair?
  • #3,994
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:24pm Jan 30, 2008 6:24pm
I clozsed short for profit, but in the meantime I took a short on EURAUD that almost put me in the poor house in 15 minutes . A stroke of luck I doubled down after being down over 100pips and it retraced into range and i got out unscathed.

Man, never a dull moment. I am taking my measly gains for the day and going back to my other plan for tonight.

Good luck all, Jacob, it will be interesting to see how that long plays out (that was at exact bottom print of 1.4815), best of luck. I'll wait for 1.44
  • #3,995
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:26pm Jan 30, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting _tlk_
Thank you for your answers.

But where to go from now??

The ECB is a hawk on inflation and will propably not lower rates for some time now, while the FED is likely to continue.

What are yours projections for this pair?
I am waiting for a clear sign. No telling how people will react to stimulus package. I wonder how Bush will react...lol
  • #3,996
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:29pm Jan 30, 2008 6:29pm
Here's how I see it short term

If price pushes down into or through 1.4801 and holds this area, then set longs for a move 1.4909. I would exit completely here as this could be a reversal area.

If price moves through 1.4801, then wait for a retrace back up to this area and set shorts for a move to 1.4678.
  • #3,997
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:31pm Jan 30, 2008 6:31pm
I think sitting is a good idea for now personally. Let's watch value build into tommorrow and see what the EUROPEAN session does.

The Euro is still above the top of its weekly range, so the RR is not good. I would look for a move to come from down below.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...e1-30-2008.PNG





Quoting TIckerShuffl
I am waiting for a clear sign. No telling how people will react to stimulus package. I wonder how Bush will react...lol
  • #3,998
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:41pm Jan 30, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting _tlk_
Thank you for your answers.

But where to go from now??

The ECB is a hawk on inflation and will propably not lower rates for some time now, while the FED is likely to continue.

What are yours projections for this pair?
Its best to buy right now.. Its making Base.. for a Big Push again for EUR/USD..
I am in Long as mentioned.. i see for a nice rally..

People expect for FED to cut more... There is still Panic in the market.. I dont know when the dust will settle. all we can do is follow the trend.

At the moment EUR/USD is still in BUllish formation,, It did its retracement..
A 60-80 PIPs Retracement from a 120-140 PIP rise.. so thats the game

It bounced back from the bottom.. And Asia players are now thinking.. working on rate gap, positioning there orders.. But i am bullish in EUR/USD.. I will be bearish if it crosses the bearish level and trend line...

But remember keep tight stop orders.. thats what i am doing..
  • #3,999
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:53pm Jan 30, 2008 6:53pm
This could be the last blip before the effects of the chance in sentiment from "Commitment of Traders" report. Recently dropped below oscillation axis for large institutions...and retail about done loading up shorts too but still in long territory by a smidge.

I am going to have a beer with the guys and let the banks duke it out.

Peace
  • #4,000
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:58pm Jan 30, 2008 6:58pm
Quoting jacobtrader
Its best to buy right now.. Its making Base.. for a Big Push again for EUR/USD..
I am in Long as mentioned.. i see for a nice rally..

People expect for FED to cut more... There is still Panic in the market.. I dont know when the dust will settle. all we can do is follow the trend.

At the moment EUR/USD is still in BUllish formation,, It did its retracement..
A 60-80 PIPs Retracement from a 120-140 PIP rise.. so thats the game

It bounced back from the bottom.. And Asia players are now thinking.. working on rate gap, positioning there orders.. But i am bullish in EUR/USD.. I will be bearish if it crosses the bearish level and trend line...

But remember keep tight stop orders.. thats what i am doing..
Well said. Trichet made it quite clear ECB is not cutting rates, and that- along with a likelihood of future Fed rate cuts- will be the open door to 1.50.
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Yaruki