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  • #3,941
  • Jan 29, 2008 8:45am Jan 29, 2008 8:45am
Longed a little here at 1.4758... 100 pips seems like a possibility on consumer confidence news. I 'll be ready to pull the plug if negative results.
  • #3,942
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:15am Jan 29, 2008 9:15am
Consumer index is out. not much favourable. what next? still long?
  • #3,943
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:16am Jan 29, 2008 9:16am
Its better to long at 1.4735-1.4750 levels.. Its a good buy in Dips.
Its a Slight retracement for a next Bullish Move to cross 1.4800 with Force.
  • #3,944
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:17am Jan 29, 2008 9:17am
Quoting abanglong
Consumer index is out. not much favourable. what next? still long?
naa closed it flat. can't bring myself to go long the USD. So per my journal, I am looking at pairs that do not have the USD involved. AUDCAD perhaps is my next target.
  • #3,945
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:14am Jan 29, 2008 11:14am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
naa closed it flat. can't bring myself to go long the USD. So per my journal, I am looking at pairs that do not have the USD involved. AUDCAD perhaps is my next target.
A very wise choice indeed ...
  • #3,946
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:42am Jan 29, 2008 11:42am
Quoting jacobtrader
Its better to long at 1.4735-1.4750 levels.. Its a good buy in Dips.
Its a Slight retracement for a next Bullish Move to cross 1.4800 with Force.

Stay long.. Be patient.. Tommorrow (Wednesday) is the day when you will all see 1.48-1.49

And then on Friday 1.50+ with Non Farm Payrolls..

This week we will end with 1.50-1.51 levels for EUR/USD
  • #3,947
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:45pm Jan 29, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting jacobtrader
Stay long.. Be patient.. Tommorrow (Wednesday) is the day when you will all see 1.48-1.49

And then on Friday 1.50+ with Non Farm Payrolls..

This week we will end with 1.50-1.51 levels for EUR/USD
It all depends on how market sees interest rate cut ( if any) , so it is likely already discounted in price you see now. Therefore, new cut will not be a surprise move we had. Question is how we will react on 0.25% cut instead 0.50% that everyone ( and my granny) is expecting. Disappointment will move pair in opposite direction than what you are predicting jacobtrader.

So , it is always better to stay flat before those events in my VHO!

  • #3,948
  • Jan 29, 2008 3:46pm Jan 29, 2008 3:46pm
Quoting SammyJ
It all depends on how market sees interest rate cut ( if any) , so it is likely already discounted in price you see now. Therefore, new cut will not be a surprise move we had. Question is how we will react on 0.25% cut instead 0.50% that everyone ( and my granny) is expecting. Disappointment will move pair in opposite direction than what you are predicting jacobtrader.

So , it is always better to stay flat before those events in my VHO!

I'm not sure if a .50 rate cut is priced in, especially with the data that came out today. A cut would probably send the Eur/Usd up to test the highs at 1.4967.
  • #3,949
  • Jan 29, 2008 5:10pm Jan 29, 2008 5:10pm
I agree with Falcon, cause FED Fund futures indicate a 50 Basis point. The market is assuming if another 75 basis point is in the pipe line or no

If FED cuts 25 Basist point, Stock markets and all will start dipping again.. So its not effective move.

A 50 Basis Cut from them will be effective.
  • #3,950
  • Jan 29, 2008 5:26pm Jan 29, 2008 5:26pm
Remember to buy the rumor and sell the fact.
  • #3,951
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:52am Jan 30, 2008 6:52am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Remember to buy the rumor and sell the fact.
Hi DownRiverTrader
Please explain to me what you mean by this in today's scenarios? I'm just an upriverangler fishing for the big fish in an unpredictable river. Do you mean the rumour is that the 50bp have been priced into current levels or how do you read it?
  • #3,952
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:19am Jan 30, 2008 7:19am
The employment news came out, and the price started falling, but I could just not pull the trigger. Something inside me has me terrified to long the dollar, no matter how rosey.
  • #3,953
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:24am Jan 30, 2008 7:24am
The best trades always make you want to throw up. Don't be afraid to buy the dollar. I am very bullish the dollar over the long term.
  • #3,954
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:26am Jan 30, 2008 7:26am
What I am saying is.... if the "herd" (translated to most traders) thinks that Fed is going to cut, then it is already priced in the market. The "rumor" or unconfirmed opinions have been actively trading this idea. Now, once it comes out there are no more buyers (or just a few poor souls). Then bang, profits are taken, sellers panic and price falls on the actual fact. Even if it is true.

Don't be one of the herd.


Quoting Lifesong
Hi DownRiverTrader
Please explain to me what you mean by this in today's scenarios? I'm just an upriverangler fishing for the big fish in an unpredictable river. Do you mean the rumour is that the 50bp have been priced into current levels or how do you read it?
  • #3,955
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:38am Jan 30, 2008 7:38am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
The best trades always make you want to throw up.
I could not have said it better.
  • #3,956
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:43am Jan 30, 2008 7:43am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
The best trades always make you want to throw up. Don't be afraid to buy the dollar. I am very bullish the dollar over the long term.
hehe, I hear what you are saying, but I am looking for a nausea free trading strategy.
  • #3,957
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:20am Jan 30, 2008 8:20am
I still believe that E/U will reach 1.49 today
  • #3,958
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:27am Jan 30, 2008 8:27am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
What I am saying is.... if the "herd" (translated to most traders) thinks that Fed is going to cut, then it is already priced in the market. The "rumor" or unconfirmed opinions have been actively trading this idea. Now, once it comes out there are no more buyers (or just a few poor souls). Then bang, profits are taken, sellers panic and price falls on the actual fact. Even if it is true.

Don't be one of the herd.

Nicely said ! That’s why I suggested to all to stay away from market in days like this . Market is here every day , it is OK to take day off once in a while. So sit back , relax and wait for your moment
  • #3,959
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:34am Jan 30, 2008 8:34am
Hi all

I see many people saying that euro go up to 1,52, 1,55 etc..But I ask a question: All conditions which drive the US to recession or less hard to this slow grow that we are saying arenīt them at UK and UE? High rates wchich drive to less consumme, less house sells, high inflation... High currency isnīt goood for exports and economie. IF us cut rates we are seeing more growth, more salles, more profits for companies, and an economic recovery, on EU and UK economic slowdown if they donīt cut rates too. (Itīs what I think, may be Iīm wrong)
  • #3,960
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:42am Jan 30, 2008 8:42am
Quoting Forexpupil
Hi all

I see many people saying that euro go up to 1,52, 1,55 etc..But I ask a question: All conditions which drive the US to recession or less hard to this slow grow that we are saying arenīt them at UK and UE? High rates wchich drive to less consumme, less house sells, high inflation... High currency isnīt goood for exports and economie. IF us cut rates we are seeing more growth, more salles, more profits for companies, and an economic recovery, on EU and UK economic slowdown if they donīt cut rates too. (Itīs what I think, may be Iīm wrong)
Good point, but a weak currency can make the costs of manufacturing exports higher. Since many commodities are pegged to the USD, costs of raw materials can really become a burden - unless your currency is strong against the USd, then you can enjoy greater margins on manufactured goods exported or not.
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