The explanation is on the above post. the charts have been arrange in almost a chronological order based on when it is needed to support the details in the text analysis.
EG
EG
- #1,764
- Jan 29, 2008 1:24am Jan 29, 2008 1:24am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
as we get down to the m15 chart, I see multiple possibilities based on the current development.
For those that consider these as noise, one can stick to the 4hour and the daily chart analysis.
A breakout to the downside of the 1st Blue horizontal line brings this pair towards FE 100.0 @ 1.4742 after seeing a 5 wave impulse down or towards FE 127.6 @ 1.4730
IF it breaks thru the next support at 1.4742 then next TP will be at 1.4715 - 1.4708 right before the last support level based on EW.
If another breakout to the downside occurs, next target would be 1.4673 - 1.4657 up to 1.4605
EG
For those that consider these as noise, one can stick to the 4hour and the daily chart analysis.
A breakout to the downside of the 1st Blue horizontal line brings this pair towards FE 100.0 @ 1.4742 after seeing a 5 wave impulse down or towards FE 127.6 @ 1.4730
IF it breaks thru the next support at 1.4742 then next TP will be at 1.4715 - 1.4708 right before the last support level based on EW.
If another breakout to the downside occurs, next target would be 1.4673 - 1.4657 up to 1.4605
EG
- #1,765
- Jan 29, 2008 1:33am Jan 29, 2008 1:33am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Indeed, was using something else. But on a trade to take we need severeal resons.
Nice explenation and presentation here about eu, but still... and a 3 year old child if u ask where this line is going it will point north.
I see 1.5 ( In my opinion ), but well see a wedge till a breakout, euro didn't fall out when all others were knocked down, and that reason we shall see why. It's a psyhological battle betten FED and ECB, who's wining and what's winning, may be the next world lider currency.
Also TRUE that direction is basically pointing North in the medium to long term. But for traders like me that do the intraday and try to trade the waves on the intraday charts, it is important to know range of potential price swings inorder not to be stopped out or incurr large drawdowns on our capital.
I believe 1.50 is already a given. It is knowing how long it will take to reach 1.5 and whether or not we will still see some retracements large or small that could bring us back down to 1.43 or lower OR is this pair already on its way up now and will bnot be coming down to 1.46 but will be rallying to 1.50 from here on.
I am l;ooking at 1.4680 as a new potential entry for my Long trade now. But I will see how the other technical tools and other systems turn out.
EG
- #1,766
- Jan 29, 2008 3:10am Jan 29, 2008 3:10am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
.
It is above the Daily Pivot also @ 211.54
Based on my observations while I was monitoring GBPJPY before, if price is already above the weekly pivot, there is a very high probability that price stays above this level. Now to add to the weekly pivot level observation is the price position above the daily and the weekly pivots. SO basically, I would still be Bullish on this pair on my view.
If we look at the EW count, I would consider the move from 204.58 going up to 214.06 as the 0123 waves and the move down to 209.49 as the wave 4.
I would be looking at GBPJPY climbing up towards 219- 219.48 where we have the weekly R2 and still be under the monthly Pivot @ 224.54
EG
- #1,768
- Jan 29, 2008 3:18am Jan 29, 2008 3:18am
- | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Jai Shewaramani | 95 Posts
GBPJPY price is already above the weekly Pivot at about 210.0
It is above the Daily Pivot also @ 211.54
Based on my observations while I was monitoring GBPJPY before, if price is already above the weekly pivot, there is a very high probability that price stays above this level. Now to add to the weekly pivot level observation is the price position above the daily and the weekly pivots. SO basically, I would still be Bullish on this pair on my view.
If we look at the EW count, I would consider the move from 204.58 going up to 214.06 as the 0123 waves and the move down to 209.49 as the wave 4.
I would be looking at GBPJPY climbing up towards 219- 219.48 where we have the weekly R2 and still be under the monthly Pivot @ 224.54
EG
I agree with you that gj is bullish in the short term...but I was jus considering the possibility of the move from 214.06 to 209.49 as wave 4a, just incase if we have an extended corrective wave 4.The reason I say that is coz the current formation on the 15 mins chart doesn't look like wave 1 of wave 5, instead its more convincing as wave 4b of wave 4...but I guess we'll have to consider both possibilities just in case...
Happy trading
Jai
- #1,769
- Jan 29, 2008 3:21am Jan 29, 2008 3:21am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
My thoughts on your 1min chart.
Jai,
I see a series of higher lows on that chart you posted. Do you mean you have a truncated 5th wave inside your 3rd wave then another truncated 5th wave of the same degree as your 3rd wave?
I would think it is a bit unusual to have 2 5th waves even of different degrees to be sitiuated so near each other.
Just something for you to consider. Can't expound on it now . have to leave soon.
EG
Jai,
I see a series of higher lows on that chart you posted. Do you mean you have a truncated 5th wave inside your 3rd wave then another truncated 5th wave of the same degree as your 3rd wave?
I would think it is a bit unusual to have 2 5th waves even of different degrees to be sitiuated so near each other.
Just something for you to consider. Can't expound on it now . have to leave soon.
EG
- #1,770
- Edited 4:19am Jan 29, 2008 4:05am | Edited 4:19am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Finally have my internet connection back.
1st if we consider 532 as a 3wave structure, then we continue with the proposed triangle.
2nd if we consider it as a 5wave structure, then it becomes a sub wave a of the B leg of wave D. then the move up from 532 should be a 3wave structure to make it the wave b of the B leg.
I have labeled that as 1 or a, 2 or b and 3 or c. if this is an irregular leg B, then the maximum that its wave b can go up to is 132.8% of the wave a which is the 5332 wave. So that the move from 1.4798 going down can be considered as a sub wave 4 of the wave c or 3. then I would be looking for a 23.6, 38.2. 50 and 61.8 retracement for the sub wave 4 which is why you will see the tick marks on the fib levels to the right. Then a rally upwards towards 1.4817 is expected.
I am currently favoring the 1.43 = IV and 1.492 = V.1, 1.4363 = V.2, currently in V.3 scenario as well.
Simply because I can't see another steep EURUSD selloff coming just yet with another likely cut tomorrow as well as the internal structure being A=C ABC both times(First one being ABC = IV, second one being ABC = V.2, altough I am not sure whether this is even allowed du to the rule of alternation).
But really not sure. I much prefer cable's change of direction.
I still think weekly / daily / 4h is much safer to use(far better overview) than 5m/15m
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #1,772
- Jan 29, 2008 8:37am Jan 29, 2008 8:37am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Jai, Attached is my proposed wave count on your GBPJPY
Still on the 1min chart
Price may actually reach Weekly R2 @ 219.48 ( Weekly R2 I have observed be a favorite target by GBPJPY. It is also FE 100.0
It may extend to weekly R3 also whihc has also been observed to happen before on this pair which is within reach of the Monthly Pivot @ 224.54 and incidentally FE 161.8 also for the Zigzag wave 4 also.
EG
Still on the 1min chart
Price may actually reach Weekly R2 @ 219.48 ( Weekly R2 I have observed be a favorite target by GBPJPY. It is also FE 100.0
It may extend to weekly R3 also whihc has also been observed to happen before on this pair which is within reach of the Monthly Pivot @ 224.54 and incidentally FE 161.8 also for the Zigzag wave 4 also.
EG
- #1,773
- Jan 29, 2008 9:36am Jan 29, 2008 9:36am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
I am currently favoring the 1.43 = IV and 1.492 = V.1, 1.4363 = V.2, currently in V.3 scenario as well.
Simply because I can't see another steep EURUSD selloff coming just yet with another likely cut tomorrow as well as the internal structure being A=C ABC both times(First one being ABC = IV, second one being ABC = V.2, altough I am not sure whether this is even allowed du to the rule of alternation).
But really not sure. I much prefer cable's change of direction.
I still think weekly / daily / 4h is much safer to use(far better overview) than 5m/15m
Yes I am biased towards the wave 51 52 53 wave count on the Daily. As far as the Rule of Alternation is concerned, I do not see any problem where wave 4 is in Zigzag then wave52 which is a wave of smaller degree is again a Zigzag.
With Cable I think there was already a reversal of trend and that it is now Bullish Medium to Long Term.
Regarding EW counts on specific timeframes, It is generally advisable to do them in the higher timeframe. But I find it very challenging to work on the shorter TF as it provides me more opportunities to exercise my EW counts as a drill to sharpen my EW skills on pattern and wave labelling/identification.
EG
Could someone post a wave count of the macro and micro on USD/CAD? Looking at this book just does not ring a bell.
Here are 2 threads that is all about the Canadian Dollar
Go check it out.............
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Click Here :
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.p...34#post1806734
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.p...96#post1810296
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- #1,776
- Jan 29, 2008 1:33pm Jan 29, 2008 1:33pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Great signal to go long on Usd/Jpy right now. Great forecast news for usd. Drop for at least 80~100 pips. (just informational propose only, trade @ ur own risk)
Enjoy.
I had my Long signal triggered from yesterday. I had a near 40 pip drawdown this morning but slightly on the positive now for my Long trade.
However, on your post..... you mention Great signal to go long because of the good forecast for the US News. Yet you say there will be an 80-100 pip Drop. That seems to be contradictory.
What I still can not understand is how you derive the 80-100 pip range potential profit. We would really appreciate it if you could kindly expound on how you do it.
EG
- #1,777
- Edited 5:39pm Jan 29, 2008 2:38pm | Edited 5:39pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 847 Posts
Usd/Yen
Comming Soon to a Theater near you !............
----------------------------------------------------------
http://i29.tinypic.com/23ucvti.jpg
Comming Soon to a Theater near you !............
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http://i29.tinypic.com/23ucvti.jpg
- #1,779
- Edited Jan 30, 2008 8:43am Jan 29, 2008 8:26pm | Edited Jan 30, 2008 8:43am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hi Grega.
It is very unfortunate that it had to come to this point. I hope that Tim ( Learntocount ) will come to a point where he can just diplomatically argue his point and not have to resort to his challenging ways.
I can understand how passionate he is with teaching others what he thinks is the rightway to count Elliott Waves. He has seen how some people have been demoralized trying to learn EW because of the complicated tools that are being used by others who teach it. EWT is in itself complex already and to combine it with a not so straight forward tool or strategy for identifying waves will draw a new learner farther away from the truth about EW.
He can not be this passionate about this and be concerned for all of us unless he has a lot of experience under his belt. Very rare will you see someone like him who is Both a successful trader using Elliott Waves and yet takes time to teach others for free.
Others may think they are teaching EW but mostly post their charts with little or no explanation and leave one to analyze and fend for himself to interpret or deduce from the posts how it all came about. He is one of the rare breed of Elliotticians who will take time to explain to you his position and give you limits to his wave counts and why.
I really urge everyone trying to learn EWT and applying its Principles to just agree that we will not always agree to have the same wave counts. But let us respect each others point of view and just post our charts and provide an explanation so that the rest of us can learn and see the basis of each others wave count.
If something deviates from EWP yet a poster feels strongly about it, then let him defend his position. If we think differently about a wave count that was posted, we can provide a constructive criticism by pointing out the wave count in question then providing our own wave count and why we labelled them as such.
For example, Like Marketwavez.... I also use chart patterns and harmonic patterns alongside many other technical indicators in my price analysis. when I can not seem to have a clear count , I look towards this other tools for some kind of direction.
So I may not be able to explain it using EW, but I will provide some reasons why I see price going a particular direction using other tools.
I hope that the moderators allow Tim to get back to the Forum. And I am sure Marketwavez will have nothing against that for as long as Tim can begin to accept the fact that they have different ways of Analyzing EW.
Tim, kindly comeback and allow us who want to learn from you to continue to learn from your posts. I believe , I and the rest of those learning EW here will be able to pick which way will benefit us more in our trading.
Peace and Profitable trading to everyone.
EG
It is very unfortunate that it had to come to this point. I hope that Tim ( Learntocount ) will come to a point where he can just diplomatically argue his point and not have to resort to his challenging ways.
I can understand how passionate he is with teaching others what he thinks is the rightway to count Elliott Waves. He has seen how some people have been demoralized trying to learn EW because of the complicated tools that are being used by others who teach it. EWT is in itself complex already and to combine it with a not so straight forward tool or strategy for identifying waves will draw a new learner farther away from the truth about EW.
He can not be this passionate about this and be concerned for all of us unless he has a lot of experience under his belt. Very rare will you see someone like him who is Both a successful trader using Elliott Waves and yet takes time to teach others for free.
Others may think they are teaching EW but mostly post their charts with little or no explanation and leave one to analyze and fend for himself to interpret or deduce from the posts how it all came about. He is one of the rare breed of Elliotticians who will take time to explain to you his position and give you limits to his wave counts and why.
I really urge everyone trying to learn EWT and applying its Principles to just agree that we will not always agree to have the same wave counts. But let us respect each others point of view and just post our charts and provide an explanation so that the rest of us can learn and see the basis of each others wave count.
If something deviates from EWP yet a poster feels strongly about it, then let him defend his position. If we think differently about a wave count that was posted, we can provide a constructive criticism by pointing out the wave count in question then providing our own wave count and why we labelled them as such.
For example, Like Marketwavez.... I also use chart patterns and harmonic patterns alongside many other technical indicators in my price analysis. when I can not seem to have a clear count , I look towards this other tools for some kind of direction.
So I may not be able to explain it using EW, but I will provide some reasons why I see price going a particular direction using other tools.
I hope that the moderators allow Tim to get back to the Forum. And I am sure Marketwavez will have nothing against that for as long as Tim can begin to accept the fact that they have different ways of Analyzing EW.
Tim, kindly comeback and allow us who want to learn from you to continue to learn from your posts. I believe , I and the rest of those learning EW here will be able to pick which way will benefit us more in our trading.
Peace and Profitable trading to everyone.
EG
- #1,780
- Jan 30, 2008 2:14am Jan 30, 2008 2:14am
Indeed. Good point. I was wrong. My mystake. I didn't realized till now. I am reading what i was writed and i am laughing. The news didn't brake the channel luckly 4 me. Trade is still on. My take profit range varies. At major levels, pivot points and s/r levels. I don't enter a trade till it's at least 1:2 ratio.
Sorry and take care.
Thanks for the reply.
Sorry and take care.
Thanks for the reply.