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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,781
  • Jan 27, 2008 4:28am Jan 27, 2008 4:28am
Quoting sizzler
I saw that on this fib that completed for me didn't think about that..spur of the moment..hm.
..good looking Skunny!!!

Can you see what I am doing? it is holding up really well BUT I am missing out on full extensions. Like my testing says (so far ) this will complete almost pipperfect but go a little farther. not complete accurately measure the WHOLE range. or TRUE major S/R



Using that methodology I would wait until I had completion and rock it out.MUy interesante my blue fib upon looking is draw using the same trigger as the little fibber

Skunny thank you, thank you. you sir are an amazing trader.
and thank you for your chart I likes!

Sizz.
Hi Sizzler,
I read reread your posts about AU and could not understand what you mean: what is your red fib supposed to do. I tried to walk the fibs to understand which trigger is the same for the blue and red and I couldn’t find it. While doing that I saw 2 or three interesting things: 1) What Skunny considers as a completed fib is 6 pip shy (price is 6 pip shy) and that confirms something I have noticed many times on the higher time frames, this range of approximation.
2)My next fib (blue) doesn’t complete and confirms the same extension that the main one, the next one (salmon) gives pip perfect the bottom and the top of your red fib (green on my chart).
While those fibs have probably a “wrong placement” regarding SR, I don’t know really, I find that walking them in my own way let me find more often than not this kind of nice coincidence....
I would be very glad if you could explain a little more what you mean, may be it comes from my basic English knowledge?
Sorry, if this is obvious and everybody understood it already,
Schmurex
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU080127H1B.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #2,782
  • Jan 27, 2008 5:48am Jan 27, 2008 5:48am
Quoting MarkDabid
I am a bit confused and am hoping Skunny or others can help. I was able to walk my fib to the same point Skunny did, but did not think it was valid because there was not retracement to the the mid range resistance levels. Could it be that the retracement is not necessary on the higher time frames? Any help would be appreciated.

Hey Everyone,I need to leave town for a few days. My wifes Grandfather passed away. 87 years old (I hope I make it that long). So, I won't be posting for a while.

This chart that keeps appearing was an illustration on how fibs can follow price once you know how to apply them. This wasn't a particular trade(although you could trade it) , but was more to show the clowns of the world that fibs are accurate to the pip (in most cases) when applied correctly (after practice of course).

This fib is a secondary fib (short range) and the primary fib (larger range)would have been drawn many bars back. This fib was walked and you can figure it out - as it's high is on a resistance and it's low is on a support, but it's not the only support between the two.


Remember it's about being in the flow of the market. You can't take every trade unless you are going to fib every time frame. Fibs work regardless of time frame. But if you are working against a monthly on a weekly or a weekly with a daily or a daily with an hourly. You need to watch more time frames than you need to - than if you are going with the flow of the last higher range break.
Robonacci com
  • #2,783
  • Jan 27, 2008 5:53am Jan 27, 2008 5:53am
Skunny

Sorry for your loss. Take your time, we understand.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,784
  • Edited 8:05am Jan 27, 2008 6:44am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting PiPr Pro
dagoods - first off, thanks for the great info. Take a look at this and advise if you think this is a properly drawn, retracement fib? If so, note the piercing of 138.2 and no continuance to 161.8.

hey bud... great example and no its not although yes in a sense it is..... but no its not...lol remember we are talking about RETRACEMENT FIB here......(not necesarily a skunny fib although sometimes they might be the same) so in your example you have drawn a fib in the middle of a rising price action....therefore retracement would come to the down side (presumably drawn as it was happening....so when your bottom 0 low was broken u made 138 and 161, didn't u?

if on the other hand u were trying to use this fib for retracing upwards then well.... i would have to say no its not a properly drawn retracement fib....

I would say that this fib has a high likelyhood of working but would not be how i would draw it according to my rules....


if u give current/recent examples I can show u how i would fib it for retracement action........

but stay away from gj as there are monthly timeframe implications on that pair right now and it is dangerous and Skunny told us to keep away from the beast

PSS notice the 38.2 of my previous example (purple) (post 2763)

below i have drawn gj 15 every possible fib (including possible fibs going forward) ( do not trade this as i have not drwan larget time frame fibs and only put this as an example) and u can see on this pair the 161 is acheived more than frequently and to the pip many times.....

PSSSS This is not what skunny is teaching but another variation so maybe this thread is not the proper place for this as it may just cause confusion..... UNLESS SKUNNY APPROVES OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THIS VARIATION, UNTIL THEN I WOULD PREFER NOT TO POST THIS HERE BUT you can click on my name and see where i have posted in other threads if u like)

PSSSSS THIS IS NOT THE SAME AS BOBOKUS RETRACEMENT FIB METHOD (his method is great but the variation I am discovering seems to be more accurate, in initial testing anyway, although BOS and Skunnys methods are probably more profitable since you get many more trades)

PSSSSSS TO SKUNNY: my sincere condolences I am very sorry for your loss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,785
  • Edited 9:04am Jan 27, 2008 7:16am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting PiPr Pro
“To be or not to be, that is the question;
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer Skunny's wrath
The slings and arrows of outrageous fibonacci,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing, end them. To sleep and dream till dawn of Fibonacci's line;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end vHands test
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to — 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd.
38.2 OR 61.8 RETRACEMENT when drawn properly

PSS i posted gj chart in another thread (click on my name to see all my posts) and for those interested in helping me test and experiment....there u can see an update on gj of my previous post..and examine another 38.2 example but DO NOT TRADE AS I AM STILL TESTING AND I COULD BE WRONG AND I HAVE NOT FIBBED HIGHER TIME FRAMES AND SKUNNY TOLD US TO SAY AWAY FROM GJ
  • #2,786
  • Jan 27, 2008 11:28am Jan 27, 2008 11:28am
Hi all,

Somewhere in this thread I remember reading that a fib should be moved when the 138 target is reached. I think the consensus at the time was that it be moved to the new target. Can't remember clearly and can't find the post/s. (if only I was organised!). I don't know if this issue has been adressed and sorted so I'd like to put my view out to everyone. Apologies if its rubbish or old news.

Basically, as I said above, I am thinking that it has been stated we should move the fib in certain circumstances. This is alluded to in Skunny's post 2224, "if price is not reacting, change your fib until it does", and also in another post (not known), that "we should seek out real s/r". By this I believe he means that if price has hit its 138 target and there are no other valid fibs to follow, then move the 0 level to the hi/lo after the 138 target. Keep doing this until the target is hit and price retraces(end of swing), or a new valid fib appears, allowing you to contiue onwards. This has helped me to walk up a swing to either a direct hit on target or a 3/5 pip miss(over or under). Skunny has also stated that small misses are inevitable so I don't think we should be too concerned by these.
Another thing I do is work out every valid fib swing in my TF, I prefer hourly. Follow each valid fib to target, then find the next one. It may already have triggered. If there isn't one then I "stretch" my current fib as above. Again this is alluded to in Skunny's post 2438, "you need to fib them all as they happen, or move them accordingly".
I hope this helps. I can't say I am certain this interpretation is correct but I am getting some good results. It's still all a work in progress isn't it? Good luck all.
  • #2,787
  • Jan 27, 2008 11:54am Jan 27, 2008 11:54am
I have to ask this question...who in here know where the fib #'s come from and which ones are the real #'s and which ones are tradeable #'s but have nothing to do with fibonacci??????...............
  • #2,788
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:01pm Jan 27, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting Skunny
Hey Everyone,I need to leave town for a few days. My wifes Grandfather passed away. 87 years old (I hope I make it that long). So, I won't be posting for a while.

This chart that keeps appearing was an illustration on how fibs can follow price once you know how to apply them. This wasn't a particular trade(although you could trade it) , but was more to show the clowns of the world that fibs are accurate to the pip (in most cases) when applied correctly (after practice of course).

This fib is a secondary fib (short range) and the primary fib (larger range)would have been drawn many bars back. This fib was walked and you can figure it out - as it's high is on a resistance and it's low is on a support, but it's not the only support between the two.


Remember it's about being in the flow of the market. You can't take every trade unless you are going to fib every time frame. Fibs work regardless of time frame. But if you are working against a monthly on a weekly or a weekly with a daily or a daily with an hourly. You need to watch more time frames than you need to - than if you are going with the flow of the last higher range break.

Condolenses on your families loss, Skunny.

LL
  • #2,789
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:10pm Jan 27, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting Learntocount
I have to ask this question...who in here know where the fib #'s come from and which ones are the real #'s and which ones are tradeable #'s but have nothing to do with fibonacci??????...............
I would suggest you Google or whatever search engine you prefer "Fibonacci", also, Babypips website has a section on the history, etc.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,790
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:19pm Jan 27, 2008 12:19pm
Learn to count..i would be happy for someone to show me how to draw fib lines properly....where is this information...

The only graphic demonstration i have seen about drawing a fib is on babypips ...If someone would be generous enough to show me a chart with an example of drawing a proper fib i would be forever thankful

HH
  • #2,791
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:19pm Jan 27, 2008 12:19pm
I couldn’t find it. While it comes from my basic English knowledge?
Sorry, if this is obvious and everybody understood it already,
Schmurex[/quote]


Schmurex,

You and my basic knowledge of english both I don;t know that is where Skunny drew his fib. That is just where mine was. I wasn;t even sure it was daily, just major.

I don't believe in coincidence less if it makes sense. I can't say word one because I can;t understand your chart. It is too cluttered for me. here are a few thingsthat may or may not help see where I am coming from:

1.) The 168 level is pointless for my testing/trading I don;t use it. It is unreliable as far as 100% goes. I get greedy, I get burned, I lose money. I reject it for my purposes.

2.) A cycle is completed at 132.

3.) walking means moving it but not ALWAYS keeping S or R the same. This is due to my UNCONFIRMED belief that not everything you see on (lets say) the 1hr chart is a 1HR fib hence you can;t have a truly never ending 1hr fib hence you can't swing like I used to. which would be once it completes move the 0 or 100 to that level and level the other guy alone. this could be very wrong. who knows.

4.) Time is infinitely small and large so IMO there will never be a master chart that you could cycle to perfection swinging. There will always be waiting and watching involved. IMO IMO> I was getting SOME pip perfect moves but a LOT of slop swinging like a chimp, but holding on to an old branch.

5.) MY same tf fibs don't over lap that would be chaos. IMO. Tf s and Sr are the biggest buggers with this style IMO.


The Chart:

OK that chart I looked at it, saw something I liked, looked back a little , then pull a fib confirmed it to what I look for. the blue fib same deal, I always look for defined S/R and then go from there.

Logically think about it. If I pull a swing I must be looking for something in or around that swing to validate it or I am just guessing.
I see something I love in Skunny's fib aswell.


Valid fibs:

I am a pioneer in the wrong frontier so i want to throw this out there. there is a lot of talk about 61.8 or 38 or whatever retrace to be a valid fib.. My blue fib still won't shut up about Dx slamming it hehehe he has an inferiority complex now. I know what popluar vote it on this issue.

I humbly submit this thinking in response.

Controlling statements:

1.) this method is non -discretionary it is either all right or all wrong.
2.) This method is piperfect or close (when done properly)
3.) The method is fibbing S/R and upon the break of the s/r the price invariably travels to the 132( inference from statement 2 means that it will not blow through it but stop on your target or within a tight pip tolerance)
so we have a GREAT sandbox for testing things. IMO

"your bright blue fib isn't valid until it completes the inner resistance levels"

so the thread made a groupthink assumption as to what that meant, lets test it. K so every fib that does this should be pip perfect? are they? that GY chart?

( i haven't tested this specifically so I don;t rightfully know to be honest)

if you had a bucketloads of fibs that fit all the above conditions ,but NOT the testing assumption, which is incorrect?

So IMO we are left with:

1.) the groupthink assumption of what Skunny meant is wrong
2.) It only confirms if some other variable is present


I know nothing , but what my testing tells me. IMO
Sizz

LTC - so nice to have you here!! Wait what??? 50 ISN'T a fib level.. oh man...I am sunk.. lol
  • #2,792
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:23pm Jan 27, 2008 12:23pm
Oh yes and the diagram on baby pips show the drawing from a swing high to a swing low,,,and vice versa

That is the extent of my knowledge of drawing a fib....i understand that price action seems to always retrace to fib numbers and fib extensions....this is very valuable info. But as to drawing a fib properly, i am still in the dark. If anyone would be generous enough to explain this to me on a chart i would be eternally grateful...

Sincerely HH
  • #2,793
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:33pm Jan 27, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting hharrington
Oh yes and the diagram on baby pips show the drawing from a swing high to a swing low,,,and vice versa

That is the extent of my knowledge of drawing a fib....i understand that price action seems to always retrace to fib numbers and fib extensions....this is very valuable info. But as to drawing a fib properly, i am still in the dark. If anyone would be generous enough to explain this to me on a chart i would be eternally grateful...

Sincerely HH
You might want to read Bobokus's thread, Fibonacci Trading. Start at the beginning is my advise.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,794
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:35pm Jan 27, 2008 12:35pm
Dagood, There is so much stuff on your chart i could not even find a 161 fib....lol

HH
  • #2,795
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:50pm Jan 27, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting sizzler

Valid fibs:

I am a pioneer in the wrong frontier so i want to throw this out there. there is a lot of talk about 61.8 or 38 or whatever retrace to be a valid fib.. My blue fib still won't shut up about Dx slamming it hehehe he has an inferiority complex now. I know what popluar vote it on this issue.

I humbly submit this thinking in response.

Controlling statements:

1.) this method is non -discretionary it is either all right or all wrong.
2.) This method is piperfect or close (when done properly)
3.) The method is fibbing S/R and upon the break of the s/r the price invariably travels to the 132( inference from statement 2 means that it will not blow through it but stop on your target or within a tight pip tolerance)
so we have a GREAT sandbox for testing things. IMO

"your bright blue fib isn't valid until it completes the inner resistance levels"

so the thread made a groupthink assumption as to what that meant, lets test it. K so every fib that does this should be pip perfect? are they? that GY chart?

( i haven't tested this specifically so I don;t rightfully know to be honest)

if you had a bucketloads of fibs that fit all the above conditions ,but NOT the testing assumption, which is incorrect?

So IMO we are left with:

1.) the groupthink assumption of what Skunny meant is wrong
2.) It only confirms if some other variable is present


I know nothing , but what my testing tells me. IMO
Sizz

LTC - so nice to have you here!! Wait what??? 50 ISN'T a fib level.. oh man...I am sunk.. lol
hi Sizzler, I agree with your controlling statements. I think that in order to avoid a failed fib, you must first start at the beginning of a new swing and start walking each valid fib , in progression until the swing ends. If a fib is just plucked at random from a swing it may fail, but you might have missed an earlier fib that is still working towards its target, and which will succeed. The later fib (IMHO), shouldn't be activated until the previous one finishes. The hi that would have been in the failed fib, could be the pip perfect target of the earlier one. I only came across an example of this today, in EJ, but I can't for the life of me find it now. Hope this makes sense, been at the vino so who knows.
  • #2,796
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:16pm Jan 27, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting seb123
I only came across an example of this today, in EJ, but I can't for the life of me find it now. Hope this makes sense, been at the vino so who knows.
Seb,

Yup I have always seen those as the basis of this thread. It really helps testing

I completely understand what you are saying, but Define walking.

I used to take say a swing high and then basically fib it to my understand of a swing low THEN when that tp was hit, extend my swing low to the tp that was hit. I found that to be hit and miss. so I deep sixed it.

So now I will take say a master cycle and then start fibbing little slaves in there :

If tp hit on slave I wait and watch to make a new one or I will see if it is a loop fib. for all intents and purposes that fib is dead to me unless it shows signs of being a loop, and I wait until price signals to make a new one with no points overlapping.

while price is waiting I can drop down further tfs and play the fibs that are making up the bigger tf swing. same rules apply.


it is only 2:00 in the after noon otherwise I would be in the vino too I am jealous! at least since I backed down on live and am mainly sticking to my basic D1H4 PASR I only have to check my trade charts once a day again no sundays or fridays. WOOHOOO That fib schedual was killing my drinking schedual!!! hehehe



Sizz.

Also Skunny sorry about the loss but I agree if I am blessed to live that long( is liquor nature's embalming fluid?? if so I have like 200 years left.) I want people to have a party when I pass. A big tribute of a good long life. No tears.. ok ok.well some otherwise people might get the wrong idea hehe
  • #2,797
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:23pm Jan 27, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting hharrington
Learn to count..i would be happy for someone to show me how to draw fib lines properly....where is this information...

The only graphic demonstration i have seen about drawing a fib is on babypips ...If someone would be generous enough to show me a chart with an example of drawing a proper fib i would be forever thankful

HH
I just did on the above posts......
  • #2,798
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:48pm Jan 27, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting sizzler
Seb,

Yup I have always seen those as the basis of this thread. It really helps testing

I completely understand what you are saying, but Define walking.

I used to take say a swing high and then basically fib it to my understand of a swing low THEN when that tp was hit, extend my swing low to the tp that was hit. I found that to be hit and miss. so I deep sixed it.

So now I will take say a master cycle and then start fibbing little slaves in there :

If tp hit on slave I wait and watch to make a new one or I will see if it is a loop fib. for all intents and purposes that fib is dead to me unless it shows signs of being a loop, and I wait until price signals to make a new one with no points overlapping.

while price is waiting I can drop down further tfs and play the fibs that are making up the bigger tf swing. same rules apply.


it is only 2:00 in the after noon otherwise I would be in the vino too I am jealous! at least since I backed down on live and am mainly sticking to my basic D1H4 PASR I only have to check my trade charts once a day again no sundays or fridays. WOOHOOO That fib schedual was killing my drinking schedual!!! hehehe



Sizz.

Also Skunny sorry about the loss but I agree if I am blessed to live that long( is liquor nature's embalming fluid?? if so I have like 200 years left.) I want people to have a party when I pass. A big tribute of a good long life. No tears.. ok ok.well some otherwise people might get the wrong idea hehe
Hi sizz,
Perhaps "walking " is not a good term to use, misleading. What I have been doing is progressing thro a swing from the first valid fib to the last. When the previous swing has hit its target and price reversed, we're under starters orders and I wait for a valid fib to form, then we're off. Follow the PA and register when the next valid fib forms. It is inactive until the first fib hits target. When that happens,it is finished, the second one is then the current fib and followed to its target. If I run out of valid fibs to use I stretch my current fib as outlined in previous post. I do this until the target is hit to the pip or very close, check the longer swings' fibs and higher TF fibs to assess if we have reached the end of the swing.
This is about all my brain can cope with right now. Let me know if this makes sense to you and how you get on. I'll be happy to throw more light on it if it will help. it helps me to focus my thoughts, for all I know this is gibberish! But under the influence it sounds great!
  • #2,799
  • Edited 2:04pm Jan 27, 2008 2:02pm | Edited 2:04pm
be happy to throw more light on it if it will help. it helps me to focus my thoughts, for all I know this is gibberish! But under the influence it sounds great![/quote]

Seb,

Sounds like we might be doing the same thing or a slightly different flavor
Everything does sounds better under the influence...so many bad decisions heheheI could write a book.

Can you post a chart or better yet Lowell has gotten me hooked on Template files.

I attached my current GY hopefully the rotten grape juice will make my mess look good to you on this I would be playing the gold and white fib and looking to see how it worked with the other guys like on a break of the red fib I might lets it ridesss and use say the gold fib as a bueno entry point into a larger move.

Again this is all testing and IMO and until they succed I expect these buggers to fail and at that point hopefully i can explain why

Could post your tpl if you don't mind? also with mine just zoom in and out the fibs will make sense Seb hopefully. or not. hehe

Sizz.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl gy.tpl   6 KB | 372 downloads
  • #2,800
  • Jan 27, 2008 2:34pm Jan 27, 2008 2:34pm
Quoting sizzler
Seb,

Sounds like we might be doing the same thing or a slightly different flavor
Everything does sounds better under the influence...so many bad decisions heheheI could write a book.

Can you post a chart or better yet Lowell has gotten me hooked on Template files.

I attached my current GY hopefully the rotten grape juice will make my mess look good to you on this I would be playing the gold and white fib and looking to see how it worked with the other guys like on a break of the red fib I might lets it ridesss and use say the gold fib as a bueno entry point into a larger move.

Again this is all testing and IMO and until they succed I expect these buggers to fail and at that point hopefully i can explain why

Could post your tpl if you don't mind? also with mine just zoom in and out the fibs will make sense Seb hopefully. or not. hehe

Sizz.
Sizz, here's your template with my fibs, just follow the progression from left to right.
Your fibs looked ok to me, but I wouldn't follow the white on its own I would wait and see what happened after additional bars. We are both at the same point now, waiting for the next fib to break.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl gy.tpl   8 KB | 407 downloads
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