Indicator Free Trading - Skunny | Page 139 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How to free indicator resources? indicator called from EA 7 replies

COT trading system with free indicator 297 replies

No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink 736 replies

SWAP free, rollover free Broker? 15 replies

Attachments: Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
Exit Attachments

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,761
  • Jan 26, 2008 8:04pm Jan 26, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting galaxymom
...................... I can fib a GJ 150+ pip candle and it will hit T2 to the pip 99% of the time, .......................
are you saying you have backtested and 99% of the time a 150+ pip candle hits T2? that's the moley quail - can you elaborate?
  • #2,762
  • Edited Jan 27, 2008 12:25am Jan 26, 2008 8:39pm | Edited Jan 27, 2008 12:25am
Quoting PiPr Pro
are you saying you have backtested and 99% of the time a 150+ pip candle hits T2? that's the moley quail - can you elaborate?
Pipr

Moley quail, ????? LOL I'm not sure about that, but I'll say this, I vhanded 4 months of GJ, and out of at least 10 long candles I tried it on it worked. I have not checked it on any other pair, this may be a fluke, but it caught my attention. And what started it was that the long candle I came to was over 250 pips and not a farm payroll day with over a 300 pip move in that fib to T2, so I was looking to see where I would get the next fib and I thought about the exercise where Skunny told us to fib every one hour candle, and long candles on GJ and EJ almost always retrace themselves it seems at least 60%, so being the curious one I am, I fibbed that candle.
NOTE: I did some checking and it doesn't always work out, but more so with a lone long candle.

Also, and we know this as the nature of the candle formations, but on the 3 pairs I've done on vhands and regular fibbing, I found that double tops/bottoms that form close to the 0 or 100 level are headed for the opposite end of the fib and very close to and often hit it or make a new low/hi, triples are even stronger, but if formed around the other interior levels they move less. I'm beginning to see that if after a T1 is hit pip-perfect, followed by a Rising 3 formation, T2 will become the next target for your existing fib. These are just the little things that may be meaningful and maybe not, but I'm making notes as I see them and am continuing to test them as I go forward.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,763
  • Jan 26, 2008 8:58pm Jan 26, 2008 8:58pm
here ya go pipr... this is how i have been experimenting.... its ez in hindsight..... in real time its much more difficcult for me, and i m sure i could not have walked this so perfectly...but the theory seems 100% valid to me so far.........but i am getting better with practice...each fib i drew using the same objective rules..... seems to work 100% of the time.... but again i am still in testing... once i know for sure, with skunnys permission, i certainly will share my results....

again i challenge u to find me an example where 138 is hit and broken and 161 not acheived, unless price reversed at a larger time frame fib level of course
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,764
  • Jan 26, 2008 9:00pm Jan 26, 2008 9:00pm
Quoting Pipo
Hello PiPr

Yes please go ahead I think I am speaking here for the majority as we are stagnated and need some more info so we can proceed or asses and correct our ways of drawing fibos. re indicator any chance to get my hands on it?
ok - let me add some code and notes to the indicator so that you can go into the code and set it for doji or candles of a certain height (galaxymom's idea). The "indicator" can be dropped into any chart (vHands or regular) to simply notate the Doji candles that meet your definition. This allowed me to quickly ascertain what PA occurred around the Doji instead of hovering my cursor over the candle to see if the close/open were a certain spread, etc.

I will be back to the computer in about 30 minutes to make that change and then post some of the Doji trade issues I have found over the years.
  • #2,765
  • Jan 26, 2008 9:11pm Jan 26, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting dagoods
.............. i certainly will share my results....

again i challenge u to find me an example where 138 is hit and broken and 161 not acheived, unless price reversed at a larger time frame fib level of course
funny, you just wrote it - the immediate reversal I was thinking of when I read your statement were the ones caused by higher time frames. So you answered the riddle already.

P.S. - we would love for you to share your results - it's great info to keep testing and for all to learn
  • #2,766
  • Jan 26, 2008 9:41pm Jan 26, 2008 9:41pm
but skunny taught us to watch out fro this already... this is that same pair going forward.... pretty simple to see now is not the time to trade it yet since we are approaching a 0 level on higher tf.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg3.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #2,767
  • Jan 26, 2008 10:36pm Jan 26, 2008 10:36pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
ok - let me add some code and notes to the indicator so that you can go into the code and set it for doji or candles of a certain height (galaxymom's idea). The "indicator" can be dropped into any chart (vHands or regular) to simply notate the Doji candles that meet your definition. This allowed me to quickly ascertain what PA occurred around the Doji instead of hovering my cursor over the candle to see if the close/open were a certain spread, etc.

I will be back to the computer in about 30 minutes to make that change and then post some of the Doji trade issues I have found over the years.
Here is the Doji "indicator". Again, this was a quick program I wrote and adapted from some code just to show me the candles that met certain criteria. If you go into metaEditor you can change the open/close distance or the Doji candle height. The code is currently set for candles with LESS THAN 3 pips difference from open/close AND greater than 25 pips tall. Instructions are contained in the code to change this to look for candles that meet Galaxymom's idea. Make sure to save this to your Experts/Indicators folder and compile or simply restart MT4 to access the indicator. I will post some general trade guidelines for Doji's in a few minutes.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Doji.mq4   2 KB | 798 downloads
  • #2,768
  • Jan 26, 2008 11:00pm Jan 26, 2008 11:00pm
Quoting Skunny
I'm going to be out for a while this morning (I'm CST BTW) But I just want to address the traders that have made comments in the past about "Fibonacci doesn't work" "it's self fulfilling" "if you draw enough fibs it's bound to hit one of them".

I bring this up because I don't want any here to believe this stuff. There are threads here that suggest fibs don't work. Like anything else, if you have a tool you don't know how to use, it wont work. If you don't believe me try driving a 16d nail into a 2x4 of walnut with a screwdriver.

I'm going to post a monthly chart with a fib on it. I just didn't place this fib where it is now. I brought the fib there by a series of previous moves. Now if you look at this chart, do you think there is anyone on the planet, even fib traders, that would pick this spot to draw a fib? Notice how it completed the extensions per it's mission and that was determined 1000's of pips prior.

You see, traders don't decide where fibs should be drawn the price action does. When you learn to listen to the market your fib can be here to.

I didn't add up the pips on this monthly move but I'm sure someone will.

I would never trade a monthly chart, but it's nice to know the info

I am a bit confused and am hoping Skunny or others can help. I was able to walk my fib to the same point Skunny did, but did not think it was valid because there was not retracement to the the mid range resistance levels. Could it be that the retracement is not necessary on the higher time frames? Any help would be appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #2,769
  • Jan 26, 2008 11:34pm Jan 26, 2008 11:34pm
These notes apply to H1 Doji's and are certainly not meant to be a recommended trade plan, just general info on trading Doji's.

Doji's can be simple and fun to trade in many environments, but similar to others have issues in consolidating periods. If you just trade the Doji H/L breakout the issue to watch out for is the false breakout. After the Doji closes this is where PA will fake out one side, then reverse and hit the extension on the other side.

  1. You can take the first break with decent success but have periodic false break reversals.
  2. Breakouts should be H/L +/- 2 or 3 pips to avoid false breakouts
  3. If you have no break out on the next candle after close, when it does break only take the trade in the direction of the candle after Doji close. For example in this order: Candle 1 = Doji; Candle 2 = small bullish candle with no break above H/L of Doji; Candle 3 = bearish break out - do not trade. In this example you would only take a bullish breakout because the candle after the Doji indicated the market bias.
  4. TP = 161.8 or 25 pips whichever is greater (if 25 pips on GJ this reduces your profit to about 16 pips due to spread unless you trade through a prime). Or after 138.2 hit goto BE and trail stop.
  5. Don't trade after 1959 GMT and decide whether you are comfortable taking Doji's during Asian.
  6. PA often goes 50-70 pips opposite direction.
  7. After 138.2 or 161.8 go to SL = BE. Then raise stops to stay 5-10 pips behind the low/high of the candle depending on the direction of your trade. Remember, these are often decisive candles so you want to stay in the momentum trades.
  8. Statistics (if you have a fairly good handle on PA) : per 100 trades you will see approximately a 80% success rate just sticking to the above rules. That isn't a number pulled out of the air. In differing investments and seasons, your conservative success rate should range from about 75% to 85% success.
  9. As always, be aware of the market S/R areas.
  10. If you have a better way to trade these - please share!

P.S. by 10 pip trail stop I meant a candle trail stop. The stop is only moved after each candle completes

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: doji.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #2,770
  • Jan 26, 2008 11:54pm Jan 26, 2008 11:54pm
If you need to delete the Doji names off your chart, there are 2 ways to do so easily. Save a template before you start and revert back to it after you are finished. Or, right click on the chart and delete the Doji indicator, then right click on the chart and click Objects List and click to highlight the first text line, then use the slider to move to the bottom of the list and hold down the shift key while you click the last text line and then click delete.
  • #2,771
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:11am Jan 27, 2008 12:11am
Pipr Pro,

I noticed a similar PA event in charting the days where price stayed within the previous days high and low. These would be called (in James16 parlance) Inside bars. A lot of people will trade the break on inside bars too and they don't even have to be after a doji. I had noticed that on days where there was an Inside Bar formation, on the next day when price broke through the hi or low, it was almost certain to go to at least the 138 extension.
trading naked.......
  • #2,772
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:39am Jan 27, 2008 12:39am
Quoting piphitman
Pipr Pro,
................... it was almost certain to go to at least the 138 extension.
138 ext of the inside bar or the 138 ext of the previous day?
  • #2,773
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:48am Jan 27, 2008 12:48am
Quoting PiPr Pro
138 ext of the inside bar or the 138 ext of the previous day?
Inside bar
trading naked.......
  • #2,774
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:50am Jan 27, 2008 12:50am
Quoting dagoods
...................But to answer your question YES retracement is always to the at least 38 or 61 level from a fib drawn in the correct place as a retracement type fib.... at least my research suggests this is true... my research also suggests that a break of 0 or 100 of these "retracement" fibs ALWAYS 100% of the time reach 138(-138) ext at least and furthermore...if they pierce the 138 they go on to at least the 161....
...................
dagoods - first off, thanks for the great info. Take a look at this and advise if you think this is a properly drawn, retracement fib? If so, note the piercing of 138.2 and no continuance to 161.8.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj fibs 1_27_08.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #2,775
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:15am Jan 27, 2008 1:15am
Some in here may not like this answer, but drawing fibonacci should be off of waves. in this example I have a corrective ABC drawn in the box....using my fibo extensions you can see that the currency stopped and retraced at extension levels...the only one it blew through was 1.618 which was ok since it retraced at 1.382....then my next fibo should be drawn off the completion of the motive sequence and as you can see, it hit 38.2% and bounced off.......waves are created by the currency moving within fibonacci expansions and contractions......you use the extensions for targets after a contraction and you use the contractions after an expansion.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pound yen fibo.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #2,776
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:24am Jan 27, 2008 1:24am
Quoting Learntocount
................you use the extensions for targets after a contraction and you use the contractions after an expansion.....
thanks for joining in - what are those hairs on your chart (just kidding)

P.S. - ALL Fibonacci views are appreciated here
  • #2,777
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:39am Jan 27, 2008 1:39am
Thank you...lets break it down further....inside of my motive wave on the first chart I have the corrective wave inside of the box, since it is corrective I need my extensions for the next move..look what happens at 1.618 and 2.618......then I need my retrace of the motive wave and we hit 50% and head back down......I can do this all day........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gpy yen 1hr.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #2,778
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:44am Jan 27, 2008 1:44am
OK..now I draw a fibo for my 50% retrace so I need my extension....1.382 looks kind good here.......so in closing...you learn to draw fibo's right and the world is your oyster.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp yen final.jpg Size: 159 KB
  • #2,779
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:44am Jan 27, 2008 1:44am
Quoting galaxymom
In this matter of a VALID FIB, if the last fib completed while moving up, does the retrace need to be to the 61 or to the 38 level?

Thank you?
“To be or not to be, that is the question;
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer Skunny's wrath
The slings and arrows of outrageous fibonacci,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing, end them. To sleep and dream till dawn of Fibonacci's line;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end vHands test
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to — 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd.
  • #2,780
  • Jan 27, 2008 2:30am Jan 27, 2008 2:30am
Quoting PiPr Pro
“To be or not to be, that is the question;
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer Skunny's wrath
The slings and arrows of outrageous fibonacci,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing, end them. To sleep and dream till dawn of Fibonacci's line;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end vHands test
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to — 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd.
I could not have expressed it better, Will ShakesPipr !
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
1 trader viewing now