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  • #3,901
  • Jan 25, 2008 3:03am Jan 25, 2008 3:03am
I guess I am the only dollar bull left in this thread...
  • #3,902
  • Jan 25, 2008 5:43am Jan 25, 2008 5:43am
Quoting ItalianSharp
but always take these articles with a grain of salt.
I agree
  • #3,903
  • Jan 25, 2008 5:48am Jan 25, 2008 5:48am
Quoting ItalianSharp
I guess I am the only dollar bull left in this thread...
I wouldn't go that far. I believe I made some comments on my long term trades back in november, but they still stand. I am short biased on the EUR/USD since November and probably through the first 4-6 months of 2008. Although I do not see the dollar economy gaining ground, I believe it is starting to bottom out and people are atleast getting used to the negative news. At the same time the Euro economy is just beginning the same economic troubles that hit the dollar last summer, all in a time where the E/U is in an overbought state on the week and month charts.

Overall it's going to be a bumpy ride, however I am and have been shorting on every daily pullback since November. Simplist I can describe my thoughts are a tug of war between who's doing worse, which I believe will be more and more on the EUR economy.

2nd quarter 2008 I will reevaluate, I believe the US election will start effecting the currencies around then. If the Democrats win and tax businesses to death, it won't be good for the US dollar at that point.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #3,904
  • Jan 25, 2008 5:57am Jan 25, 2008 5:57am
Quoting Vensik
I wouldn't go that far. I believe I made some comments on my long term trades back in november, but they still stand. I am short biased on the EUR/USD since November and probably through the first 4-6 months of 2008. Although I do not see the dollar economy gaining ground, I believe it is starting to bottom out and people are atleast getting used to the negative news. At the same time the Euro economy is just beginning the same economic troubles that hit the dollar last summer, all in a time where the E/U is in an overbought state on the week and month charts.

Overall it's going to be a bumpy ride, however I am and have been shorting on every daily pullback since November. Simplist I can describe my thoughts are a tug of war between who's doing worse, which I believe will be more and more on the EUR economy.

2nd quarter 2008 I will reevaluate, I believe the US election will start effecting the currencies around then. If the Democrats win and tax businesses to death, it won't be good for the US dollar at that point.
Good points.

Two observations:

1. Societe General was hit by a fraud scandal in Europe. I know fraud has nothing to do with the subprime mess, however if more European banks get into trouble it'll be interesting to see where the money goes.

2. If the Democrats win, I think that's dollar bullish. Republicans have literally driven the public deficit to record-low levels.
  • #3,905
  • Jan 25, 2008 6:44am Jan 25, 2008 6:44am
Quoting ItalianSharp
Good points.

Two observations:

1. Societe General was hit by a fraud scandal in Europe. I know fraud has nothing to do with the subprime mess, however if more European banks get into trouble it'll be interesting to see where the money goes.

2. If the Democrats win, I think that's dollar bullish. Republicans have literally driven the public deficit to record-low levels.

Well political viewpoints aside, my dollar bullish stance will stand, barring major change, until when I believe the election will start affecting the market more. Atleast another 4 months, I'm hoping mid-year.

I'm also Long USD/CAD and AUD/USD. The AUD is my only dollar bear, but it is more of a long term interest bearing carry trade toward dollar parity.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #3,906
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:15am Jan 25, 2008 9:15am
1.4670 reached as commented yesterday.
lol, enjoying a trade which sl was not hit for 1 pip. really dangerous thing but cash is good .

better to buy below 1.4600.
probably in trading war zone of bulls and bear.

there are many things why the euro should win, also many could lose.
also there is dangerous discrepancy. investors are angry at ecb and happy with fed.

when investors in general get angry at something or their opinions keeps being being beaten by an institution, they can make evil things.
so probably thats why euro winnings are being erased.

usa equities in this moment are more atractive and more liquid.
investors, and banks are saying this, so beware....
  • #3,907
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:00pm Jan 25, 2008 1:00pm
Im long EURUSD again...this retracement is perfect test of 20SMA (aka center Bollinger) on H4 - one dnager is Stoci is high but not at top, reassuring is daily is turning up....

Daily looks like today was just a dark candle before another white one.

Next bounce should be a doozie.
  • #3,908
  • Jan 25, 2008 3:12pm Jan 25, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Im long EURUSD again...this retracement is perfect test of 20SMA (aka center Bollinger) on H4 - one dnager is Stoci is high but not at top, reassuring is daily is turning up....

Daily looks like today was just a dark candle before another white one.

Next bounce should be a doozie.
beware, normally the currencies with higher interest gain but in this risk envoirenment dollar could be benefited.

today equities closed lower. even after after 75bp cut.
so beware, euro started faltering when stocks did the same.

europe is in serious problems of starting subprime even when ecb dont admit it. italy and france are likely to be the first ones to enter into recession.
  • #3,909
  • Jan 25, 2008 3:48pm Jan 25, 2008 3:48pm
Quoting chady250
We just got a nice jump back above 1.4700 it looks like we are now in an upward bias movement especially with the break of the trendline resistance. Currently we might be in an upward trend on the four hour charts showing a trendline support level near 1.468ish area. I have decided to place a Long order at 1.4725 with a SL at 1.4600 and a PT at 1.4950. I also believe with fundamentals appearing weak for the USD we may have a third chance of reaching 1.5000 but in order to ensure profit on this trade, I decided to reduce the exit point to 1.4950.
After 3 strikes, it's over ...
  • #3,910
  • Jan 26, 2008 7:44pm Jan 26, 2008 7:44pm
PHP Code
 Originally Posted by ItalianSharp [IMG]http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif[/IMG] but always take these articles with a grain of salt. 
I would hope most of you know this. If anyone thinks Soros is out to help you, I'd pack it in. Soro's would hunt your mother down for a dollar. Jim Crammer? LOL, he's bought and paid for as well. In terms of the correlation between the EURUSD and the DIA or SPY....I see your point and the pattern is hard to argue with but we are entering into a new paradime. The US is headed for recession or worse therefore the economic climate of the past is not a good indicator of what happens next. I believe we are entering into a new period and we must becareful about what we have previously used. My personal opinion looking at the charts is the EURUSD is going higher. I think the big dogs are accumulating the EURUSD for a big move up next week or soon thereafter. I belive the USD is dead and this trend will continue.
  • #3,911
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:12am Jan 27, 2008 1:12am
@ Italian Sharp

I saw some graphs made by u few days ago. Very nice indeed the comparition with gbp and S&P. I encourage u do that more often. But still i have a litlle question... With what program did u use to do that because i want to make some research my self and share it like u did but i don't know how did u do it. Did u use MT4 or something else??
---------------


Hope this week fed will not do anything stupid like last week and we shall see the eur hitting the north like we never did see before.

Nice work here acid.
  • #3,912
  • Jan 27, 2008 10:38am Jan 27, 2008 10:38am
Quoting acidguy
beware, normally the currencies with higher interest gain but in this risk envoirenment dollar could be benefited.

today equities closed lower. even after after 75bp cut.
so beware, euro started faltering when stocks did the same.

europe is in serious problems of starting subprime even when ecb dont admit it. italy and france are likely to be the first ones to enter into recession.

Why Italy and France?
  • #3,913
  • Jan 27, 2008 12:23pm Jan 27, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting Schminner
After 3 strikes, it's over ...
Lol thats a sure good way to put it. Hmm lets see with a chance that the US interest rate may drop to 3% their is an better chance that we will see this pair move to the 1.5000 marker, but we will have to wait and see about it.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,914
  • Jan 27, 2008 6:04pm Jan 27, 2008 6:04pm
I've said it for months.... I think 1.50 is the ceiling.... based on PPP parity.

Seems like the old USD is bumping its head on it..... the outlook not being good, hopefully we won't see the first nontrending year ever in '08.

-sigh-
  • #3,915
  • Jan 27, 2008 7:46pm Jan 27, 2008 7:46pm
1.4400 could be tested again sometime this week. Keep in mind the monthly chart, IF the bar closes at around 1.4400 on the 31st it could be considered a bearish breakout taking the pair lower.
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  • #3,916
  • Jan 27, 2008 8:19pm Jan 27, 2008 8:19pm
It might get back to the 1.30's...never know. Keep on scalping.
  • #3,917
  • Jan 27, 2008 8:25pm Jan 27, 2008 8:25pm
the end of the USD is near

just watched another controversial interview to george soros.
  • #3,918
  • Jan 27, 2008 8:30pm Jan 27, 2008 8:30pm
Haiii everybody! Whatdayya think, will eurusd be volatile this week?
  • #3,919
  • Jan 27, 2008 9:53pm Jan 27, 2008 9:53pm
Quoting acidguy
the end of the USD is near

just watched another controversial interview to george soros.
newb
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #3,920
  • Jan 27, 2008 11:38pm Jan 27, 2008 11:38pm
Hmm wonder what would happen if we were able to break the 1.4700 area??? If we do break it, our next resistance will be at 1.4725ish, 1.4775ish, and then 1.4820. What are your guys thought on this week?
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
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