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EURUSD

  • #3,881
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:39pm Jan 24, 2008 4:39pm
what about you digitil? I know you are waiting for 1.5 .
  • #3,882
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:42pm Jan 24, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting chady250
We just got a nice jump back above 1.4700 it looks like we are now in an upward bias movement especially with the break of the trendline resistance. Currently we might be in an upward trend on the four hour charts showing a trendline support level near 1.468ish area. I have decided to place a Long order at 1.4725 with a SL at 1.4600 and a PT at 1.4950. I also believe with fundamentals appearing weak for the USD we may have a third chance of reaching 1.5000 but in order to ensure profit on this trade, I decided to reduce the exit point to 1.4950.
Sounds like some nice balanced thinking. I'm with you on that one. Friday will tell us more about the possibility of reaching a full buck-and-a-half. Given how much the forex retail psychology has changed price action (reminds me of what happened to stock trading in the 90's), it seems quite possible, even though fundamentally it is a questionable valuation.

This market is such a circus right now I keep changing my mind almost every 8 hours...
  • #3,883
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:55pm Jan 24, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting m_j_1984
what about you digitil? I know you are waiting for 1.5 .
I'm not waiting for anything. Changing my mind twice daily right now, and adjusting goals accordingly.
  • #3,884
  • Jan 24, 2008 5:54pm Jan 24, 2008 5:54pm
Quoting digitil
Sounds like some nice balanced thinking. I'm with you on that one. Friday will tell us more about the possibility of reaching a full buck-and-a-half. Given how much the forex retail psychology has changed price action (reminds me of what happened to stock trading in the 90's), it seems quite possible, even though fundamentally it is a questionable valuation.

This market is such a circus right now I keep changing my mind almost every 8 hours...
Yup sure agree with you on that one. The market is acting like a circus, and its hard to pick sides. Currently up 50pips from my current position, I 'm waiting for a touch of 1.4800 before moving SL. Hey digitil what trades are you currently placing?
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,885
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:20pm Jan 24, 2008 7:20pm
if anyone followed my advice on ucad, exit, take those 30-40 pips and get out.
BOC Monetary policy just made these commentaries


"BOC:C$ At 98 US Cents "Not Inconsistent" With Fundamentals"
"BOC Forecasts Based On C$ At Avg 98 US Cents,Unch From Oct"
"BOC Says Risks To Inflation Forecasts "Roughly Balanced""
"BOC Sees Core CPI Dip To 1.3% In Q2, Total CPI To 1.4%"
""""BOC Expects More Rate Cuts From US Fed"""".

beware, i have seen what institutional traders like to do with these kind of numbers...... many times they push it to higher levels. beware...

USD is showing much weakness and my fear is this is just starting, rate cuts are starting to burn the greenback, and next week could be more....
be careful....
  • #3,886
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:17pm Jan 24, 2008 8:17pm
Hmm Can someone correct me if I'm wrong with this statement. If the USD is weakening and possible have a rate cut next week, does that mean USD/JPY will go further down while EUR/USD will go further up???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,887
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:25pm Jan 24, 2008 8:25pm
Did you guys ever try to overlap the S&P chart over the EURUSD chart over the last 2 years?

They almost move in synch.

Now the question is:

if you are bullish on EURUSD for the the months to come, then you gotta be bullish for the S&P as well.

Given that the US is in a recession and Europe will follow very soon, especially due to the strong Euro that is slowly hurting exports, I see this pair going down along with global stock indices.

FED slashing rates and USD appreciating would be something illogic, right?
  • #3,888
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:32pm Jan 24, 2008 8:32pm
I just decided to post a chart here for everyone to see.

The red arrow at the top right corner clearly shows how S&P and EURUSD have been diverging lately.

Something has to give here. It'll be interesting to see whether the EURUSD will catch up with S&P or viceversa.

At the current S&P levels, EURUSD should be trading around 1.30.

Oopps...sorry, the chart I posted shows the mini-Dow future instead of mini-S&P...my bad. Well, it doesnt really matter as S&P and DJ move almost identically.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD vs S&P.png Size: 32 KB
  • #3,889
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:42pm Jan 24, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting chady250
Hmm Can someone correct me if I'm wrong with this statement. If the USD is weakening and possible have a rate cut next week, does that mean USD/JPY will go further down while EUR/USD will go further up???
chady you get it, congratz.

you know whats the ugly????
USD is being used as a carry trade funding currency, so when there is risk appetite USD is being dumped.

ok, lets say this is normal, do you know whats the really ugly???
USD is still considered a world reserve currency.
and do you know what this correlatin can bring??? more problems for usd as countries not more keep funding the us debt and usa consumer.

i am with Jim Cramer, he talked about all these issues today. and george soros talked 3 days ago about this.
the fed is just making the situation more dangerous and ecb is putting more pressure as they want to become the next world financial center.

so you are right, 6J or Yen index down=UJ Up, EUR/USD Up.
  • #3,890
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:43pm Jan 24, 2008 8:43pm
Here is another interesting chart.

As you can see, EURUSD and GBPUSD have been moving in synch for several years.

However, just recently GBPUSD had a major correction while EURUSD didn't.

Something has to give here as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD vs GBPUSD.png Size: 30 KB
  • #3,891
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:48pm Jan 24, 2008 8:48pm
Last but not least, another interesting chart.

Here we have EURUSD vs USDJPY.

All the red arrows I drew on the chart represent the times when EURUSD and USDJPY were very far apart from each other.

As you can see, all those times they both ended up making a move to meet at a mid-point.

Today it looks like the EURUSD and USDJPY are very distant from each other. I can't say exactly when, but they will meet again at some point in the future.

All of the charts I posted clearly show how the EURUSD pair has been diverging from its historical correlation with key "partner" instruments.

In my opinion, the EURUSD is one of the biggest bubbles ever in the forex market.

Time will tell whether I am right on this speculation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD vs USDJPY.png Size: 35 KB
  • #3,892
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:00pm Jan 24, 2008 9:00pm
Tonight I feel like posting charts, something I've never done here at this forum.

So you better enjoy it now because I don't know whether I'll do it again in the future.

Anyways, this chart represents EURUSD vs GBPUSD vs S&P.

In conclusion, since I am a big believer of correlations and divergences within correlated instruments...either the EURUSD goes thru a major correction and catches up with other correlated markets....

or...

all other correlated markets catch up with EURUSD.

From my experience, when we have one isolated instrument diverging with several correlated instruments, the divergence usually pulls the isolated instrument back together with the other correlated instruments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD vs SPY vs GBPUSD.png Size: 43 KB
  • #3,893
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:04pm Jan 24, 2008 9:04pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
Here is another interesting chart.

As you can see, EURUSD and GBPUSD have been moving in synch for several years.

However, just recently GBPUSD had a major correction while EURUSD didn't.

Something has to give here as well.
It's because the EURO is the new safe haven. GBP GDP is all financial smoke and mirrors, while EURO has 600 million people included in it's economy.

GBP -> 1.75, EUR -> 1.75 at least
  • #3,894
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:11pm Jan 24, 2008 9:11pm
One last comment with regards to something I read above:

do you really believe that such a smart guy like George Soros would make his ideas public without having any personal interest on the side?

When I see all these big investors coming out with newspaper interviews and bluntly state what their views are, I always get wary of the possibility that they might be doing something under the table.

Just think about this for a second:

if you were George Soros and wanted to go long USD...what would you do?

Would you come out and say the USD is undervalued so it's time to buy bucks?

Or would you try to deceive public perception even further and say the USD is doomed forever?

I am not saying Soros is interested in USD...but always take these articles with a grain of salt.
  • #3,895
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:15pm Jan 24, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
It's because the EURO is the new safe haven. GBP GDP is all financial smoke and mirrors, while EURO has 600 million people included in it's economy.

GBP -> 1.75, EUR -> 1.75 at least
I find it hard to believe given that I am a European citizen and I can't see any real advantage for us Europeans in having the EU let alone the Euro.

Actually, people here in Europe are a little pissed off at the Euro.

However, if you are right then we are due to see the Euro make history and change all the equilibriums and correlations that have been surviving for decades.
  • #3,896
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:34pm Jan 24, 2008 9:34pm
ItalianSharp - Thanks for posting the above charts. They lend an interesting perspective to the currency situation. Good trading to you...
  • #3,897
  • Jan 24, 2008 10:13pm Jan 24, 2008 10:13pm
Quoting Turhovach
ItalianSharp - Thanks for posting the above charts. They lend an interesting perspective to the currency situation. Good trading to you...
I agree with the analysis approach. Comparing relative trends is key for me. his highlighted divergence raises many questions. i want to get long GBPUSD based on a "comeback," and return to historical relations. It's hard to find good reason to long the USD. I guess i am letting fundamentals get in the way.. I use to be more comfortable longing USD, until the USDCAD drop to 90...that hurt me..lol
  • #3,898
  • Jan 24, 2008 10:50pm Jan 24, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting acidguy
chady you get it, congratz.

you know whats the ugly????
USD is being used as a carry trade funding currency, so when there is risk appetite USD is being dumped.

ok, lets say this is normal, do you know whats the really ugly???
USD is still considered a world reserve currency.
and do you know what this correlatin can bring??? more problems for usd as countries not more keep funding the us debt and usa consumer.

i am with Jim Cramer, he talked about all these issues today. and george soros talked 3 days ago about this.
the fed is just making the situation more dangerous and ecb is putting more pressure as they want to become the next world financial center.

so you are right, 6J or Yen index down=UJ Up, EUR/USD Up.
I liked your explanation, but this is what i'm thinking, USD/JPY is starting to rebound and I think has just broken some sort of trendline resistance, which is a long signal on this pair. EUR/USD is also signalling a long signal to 1.5000. Fundamental indicators indicate a weak dollar, should I short the USD/JPY and long the EUR/USD???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,899
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:05am Jan 25, 2008 1:05am
hi all..

this is my opinion about EURUSD. clear wave pattern,and clear fibo target.
Attached Image
Artist lead and hacks ask for a show of hands.
  • #3,900
  • Jan 25, 2008 2:28am Jan 25, 2008 2:28am
Quoting al_yaqen
hi all..

this is my opinion about EURUSD. clear wave pattern,and clear fibo target.
Worthwhile observation and either we're wearing the same glasses or we're deceived by the same action, but I have to support your view!!

Obviously if we'll see a retracement from around 1.48 or just below, back to 1.4720-1.4700 this will be a great trade setup to target 1.50 and confirmation of your observation.

"Truth reveals itself in time to come!!"
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