Elliott Wave Counting with EG

A bit quiet still on the EURUSD.

more of the little sideways movement...

A bounce of the magenta Line Limit will be a wave 4

While a breeech and total breakout to the down side could be the c leg of the bigger wave B of a much bigger wave D up.

EG

EURUSD has been developing basically fitting well so far into our triangle wave 4.

Note chart attached to the post before this and the new chart I attach here. Price failed to breech or breakout to the down side of the magenta line which is the tip of the wave 1 or A we already labelled.

Now that we have seen how price has moved from the last time I posted a chart yesterday to now....... we see price moving up.

Let us zoom out again to the Daily chart and see where price is and where we see it going or propose its potential direction.

We have presented a potential 5 wave triangle scenario ( with a 3-3-3-3-3 wave structure) for this wave 4 on the Daily chart as an alternative to the original Zigzag wave.

So far , we had leg A, B and C turn out a 3 wave structure each. And now wave D seems to be developing into a 3 wave structure too.

See the first zoomed out chart and follow to the succeeding charts how price develops....

On the last chart we see that we have finished a 5 wave structure wave A and an extended Zigzag wave B.

EG

so have you set any orders yet?

We have seen so far the development on EURUSD from a zoomed out position.

Now let us zoom in again and dissect price movement on this pair.

Going back to post #1662 which has the same charts as those below this..... notice how I have revised the LRC or the Linear Regression Channels to show wave structure using channeling. I know LRC was not what was used in Prechter's book. But I find LRC as a faster tool to use both to illustrate channelling on a finished wave and a potential direction. I construct a new channel using the MT4 channeling tool to have "better " channel fits.

LRC is a fast channeling tool which fits a full wave into a channel. While the regular channeling tool allows us to illustrate the tendency of wave 3 to shootout of the channel while waves 1 and 2 fit into the channel quite well.

The 1st chart illustrates that during the early stages of labelling, potential waves are labelled as 1 or a, 2 or b and 3 or c.

Zooming out to the next chart, we see A5 and Zigzag B which should have been Bzz.

1 or a, 2 or b and 3 or c was initially used because it was still uncertain whether it was going to be an impulsive wave or be an expansion of the corrective wave B instead of that small Zigzag.

We laid out a guideline where in if price bounced off or turned up before hitting the magenta horizontal line @ 1.4561, then that would have been a wave 4. While if it breeched or it brokeout to the downside of that magenta line, then this was a continuation of the extended wave B and that would have been the sub wave c of the wave B.

Price then turned up even before hitting the magenta horizontal line which was the wave end of wave 1 or a. That allows us to assume that the move from 1.4510 was an impulsive move and not a corrective move still.

with that in mind, I swithced to using LRC to break down or chow the channel of each of the sub waves on that impulsive move up. And so far 4 waves have been drawn with what seems to be the last one which is wave 5 is seen as in developing until now.

EG

A pretty good day for Gbp/Jpy

on my live trades.... not yet. I prefer the breakout of the Triangle on the Daily. I cannot stay too long on my computer these days to catch the scalps I could do on the lower time frames as I have been busy outside mostly on the crucial times of the London and the US session.

the demo I entered yesterday suffered a drawdown during the asian session as I entered a last minute test for a long trade towards the US afternoon session. I know I said I was not going to enter that trade. But emotions crept in when I saw that rally just as I typed that the US afternoon session was going to be quiet. I waited for a small pullback and entered that trade and went to sleep. 4 hours later it was sufferring a drawdowm. So I let it run till near the US session. when it was up 23 pips, I exited because I had to get away again although I had my initial TP @ 1.4750.

Doing the Daily and the 4hour chart trades is what I am focusing on now. You may see me posting charts on the lower timeframes. But this is more of an exercise using EW and surfing the smaller waves to understand the bigger waves.

EG

Congratulations Jai!!!

Your GBPJPY wave count has done well for you.

EG

You may all wonder why I discuss wave counts and projection on the smaller time frames which I do not even tarde LIVE now.

I do this to keep track of the EURUSD development. my focus is on the 4hour to the Daily timeframe charts now as I am not able to stay very long on my computer these days. If i could afford to stay during crucial periods of sessions then I could scalp the smaller waves.

Back to the charts....

1st projections were based on the (1 or a, 2 or b ) points assuming that there were already 2 waves that finished as 012. So using points 012, wave 3 and wave 5 were projected. However, a 5 wave structurd wave finished off qualifying as a wave 3 or c temporarily.

What followed was a test of whether 1.4638 was a wave 3 end or a wave 31 or maybe even a wave c.

if price breeched thru the magenta horizontal line which was the wave 1 end, then I would have been left still undecided on what that wave still was. Although bias would be more towards it being sub wave c of the bigger wave B.

However, the sideways expansion and price turning up even before hitting the magenta horizontal line.... leads me to be more biased towards labelling that as a 01234 move.

on the chart below first price projections ( BLUE FIB Extention Tool ) were based on 012 points for the FIB Extention tool to Project wave 3 and 5.

However, when a wave 3 qualified as a count and wave 4 seemed to have finished, the wave length assessment showed that wave 1 is nearly equal to the slightly longer wave 3. which leads me to apply the quideline for wave extention where

if w3 is nearly equal to w1, then w5 is projected as 161.8% of a 034 move on the FIB extention tool (Green ). So current target for TP1 is @ 1.4797. Current high is @ 1.4778.

Now looking at that LRC channel for the wave 5 up, it still looks as if only 4 waves have finished and it is the sub wave 5 of this wave 5 which is developing into an extended 5th wave.

TP1 is @ FE 161.8 @ 1.4797
TP2 is at the upper side of the BLUE Andrew's Pitchfork Approx. 1.4825
TP3 is still at the Upper edge of the Magenta Triangle.

A likely Day trade scenario or a swing trade would be entering a SHORT when price hits the magenta horizontal line AND this 5 wave impulsive wave structure is finished and wave count accounted for. Then SL is 5-10 pips from the High point on this move up.

EG

what scalping methods would you use when u had time? would u still use EW?

Thank you EG.
Thou the credit should go to you...I had given up on EW untill I saw ur thread and ur posts which revived my interest again in EW.

Thnx
Jai

Yes.... trade directions will always be guided by potential wave counts. then I use trendlines, stochastics, MACD to enhance and Pivot SR Levels and a whole bunch of other technical indicators for multiple validations/confirmations.

EG

eg...your counting ups and downs as waves....ALWAYS, ok 95% of the time find 5 waves in wave 3......in your last chart...find me 5 waves.........this is where up and down counters get messed up.......3 is almost always the biggest, most impulsive......why do you not think it's complex wave 2 or 4 will not show up on your charts as a wave?...IMO you have 1,2 right, but the rest of the move up is all wave 3....

Yes Tim it would seem I do that all the time. But notice that I do not do that only using 1 time frame.

I do counts on multiple timeframe for guidance. Also multiple projections for next waves are done on wave counts on different timeframes to see where there is a level or range of price levels where targets converge.

EW labels are normally temporary and are scaled up or down as the waves develop.

I will have to learn more from you.

I am ready to revise my wave count on that last leg I considered as wave 5 up as I could already count 5 waves there. This to me means there should be more room to go up . But a retrace may be due for now.

EG

You HAVE to be able to count waves on the time frame you are looking at. you go to shorter time frames to verify that the spike that shows say on you're 1 hr chart was truely a wave or not, but that is it, if you intermingle charts, you get a hybrid of waves all from different degrees. in other words, don't mix your fractals........most of the time, if I'm looking at say a 1 hr chart, waves will show up as more than 1 candle or especially a spike...so, if I have 6 straight blue candles on the 1 hr, I can then go to a 10min and verify if there were 5 distinct waves within those candles, if there is, then I can lable the 6 candles as wave 1...then I get 3 candles 2 with spikes and tails and one say strong red, I go back to my 10 min and verify that within those 3 candles I did ABC, then those three candles become 2...IF I can't verify a ABC then those 3 candles were not a wave in my 1 hr degree and cannot be labeled.......try to keep your time frames fairly close together. ie. don't use a 10 min chart to verify wave degrees on 4 hr or 1 day charts.....use a 1 hr for the 4 hr and the 4 hr for the 1 day..etc etc. you're doing a great job, eventually you will throw out these short term charts and the labeling of wave 3 of wave c of wave 4 of wave 1...or a,b,x,y,z,c,a,b,c,d,e.......and see it on the 4 hr as wave 4.....at that point you realize there are no good trades to be had and you can tear yourself away from the comp for a couple days......good luck and keep counting.......

Adjusting the count on the 15 mins chart

Gbp/Usd

Probable Wave-count .......................
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Us Dollar

Probable Wave-count .......................
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the above posts are from the KING of counting ups and downs.......he is a professional poster on every forum in existance........I have offered to set him up with a 1 million dollar account if he can show me he is a profitable live trader...he hasn't because he can't. I seriously doubt he even trades live.......you have the same odds as a coin flip if you take these counts into consideration........

I believe that count is only a probablity, not cast in stone