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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,021
  • Jan 20, 2008 2:23pm Jan 20, 2008 2:23pm
Ups! you are right, sorry. Yes, it's very bullish.... 1.8, here we come!
  • #2,022
  • Jan 21, 2008 2:22am Jan 21, 2008 2:22am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
weekly chart setup as sent to me from the DailyFX

link to full view

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/chartin...689473073.html




Weekly Charting Set-up
AUDNZD Strongest Buy Signal in Years
Friday, 18 January 2008 19:50:53 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

The AUDNZD rally from the December 2005 low at 1.0428 traced out a clean 5 wave rally and ended at 1.2423 in May 2006. That rally is labeled wave 1 in a new 5 wave bull cycle. A corrective decline in wave 2 was expected and did unfold, ending at 1.0906 in July 2007. Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle has been underway since then. Within wave 3, waves 1 and 2 are complete (i-ii-iii-iv-v and a-b-c). Wave 3 of larger 3 is now underway. This is typically the most bullish part of the cycle -- it is when price moves farthest in the shortest amount of time (nearly vertical). If this count is correct, then the advance should carry price above 1.2091 and then 1.2448 in the next few quarters. Continue Reading the Full Article
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...-08weekly1.gif

anyone trading this ?
  • #2,023
  • Jan 21, 2008 6:25am Jan 21, 2008 6:25am
Quoting rudenstein
they see .7600 levels, maybe lower... do you agree?
No. It'll go lower (in sympathy with the global equities market) but sub 0.7 it's an attractive long entry IMHO.

The H&S pattern is playing out as expected.
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #2,024
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:11pm Jan 21, 2008 4:11pm
Rudd, please explain, the AUD is a high yielder, therefore it's a liability? What do you mean by liability?

The AUD is just above .86. Bear in mind the Dow has erased lots of gains, and is far lower then it was mid August, when everybody freaked out and AUD hit .76.

IMHO, you're focusing too much on technicals, not enough on fundamentals.
  • #2,025
  • Edited 4:24pm Jan 21, 2008 4:24pm | Edited 4:24pm
Quoting MPP
weekly chart setup as sent to me from the DailyFX




anyone trading this ?

I agree, it is the lesser of the two evils (AUD & NZD). Since NZD is the higher yielding currency, it is the first one to go and second in line would be the AUD. AUD should (imvho) gain against the NZD.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #2,026
  • Jan 22, 2008 5:28am Jan 22, 2008 5:28am
AUD/NZD getting crushed here by the underperformance of Aussie in this recent rally. Strange to see it underperform so drastically. Sterling, euro, kiwi, franc etc are all up 100-200 pips in the past few hours but Aussie is just sitting around half dead.. 60 pips off the low yes, but still down for the day and underperforming hard.
  • #2,027
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:22pm Jan 23, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
Rudd, please explain, the AUD is a high yielder, therefore it's a liability? What do you mean by liability?

The AUD is just above .86. Bear in mind the Dow has erased lots of gains, and is far lower then it was mid August, when everybody freaked out and AUD hit .76.

IMHO, you're focusing too much on technicals, not enough on fundamentals.

Bloke, I was quoting a dailyfx article... not my own opinions. They believe that we are at the beginning of a decade long bear run for the AUD (mind you they base this on elliot wave theory. )

Actually, I consider myself a purely fundamental, long term trader, with some technicals to guide me.

I agree that AUD is very strong right now. Especially considering how stocks have crashed. EUR/AUD is looking good too. I would have expected 1.8 by now.

hehe that reminds me, I still have to reply to your question in the gold thread.

rudenstein
  • #2,028
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:58pm Jan 30, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting bvbfan

I'm still bullish on AUD towards 90c, above that will need sub prime issues to settledown.
Few more Fed eases too.

Well it just got there, took profits on all positions at .9000 and .9014

Didn't expect the pullback to be so fast and have taken a small position at av .8928 for the RBA decision next week.

I think they are unlikely to go this time around but the comments from Stevens seems they will go eventually.
  • #2,029
  • Feb 3, 2008 1:09pm Feb 3, 2008 1:09pm
As far as I am concerned all signs point north, we are above the 200 in all time frames, Broke out of the corrective triangle just look for resistance at 9087, we could go for a small 100 pip retracement around there but I think we are going up past the major high of november,

OR

we are going back into this rangy corrective crap, you decide.

Daily AU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 19 KB
Just Trade It
  • #2,030
  • Feb 3, 2008 1:38pm Feb 3, 2008 1:38pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
As far as I am concerned all signs point north, we are above the 200 in all time frames, Broke out of the corrective triangle just look for resistance at 9087, we could go for a small 100 pip retracement around there but I think we are going up past the major high of november,

OR

we are going back into this rangy corrective crap, you decide.

Daily AU
yep, crazy bernanke ...
but hopeful stocks stall or fall so carry cows get panicked and start the selloff...
  • #2,031
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:16am Feb 5, 2008 9:16am
Anyone short the news after the rate announcement? The former Nov 9th gap resistance held strong, that was the entry signal, unfortunately I slept through it.
  • #2,032
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:18am Feb 5, 2008 9:18am
I shorted E.J And took profit on AU but did not go short. Waiting for this move to finish and reassess the situation. I am still long biased on this pair for now.
Just Trade It
  • #2,033
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:33am Feb 5, 2008 9:33am
Quoting Trader KGB
Anyone short the news after the rate announcement? The former Nov 9th gap resistance held strong, that was the entry signal, unfortunately I slept through it.
Your old pal is short since pre Dow open, still expecting a test of 95.27 on the daily, although the hourly 200ma held for now.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,034
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:37am Feb 5, 2008 9:37am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I shorted E.J And took profit on AU but did not go short. Waiting for this move to finish and reassess the situation. I am still long biased on this pair for now.
AU is a beast, but AJ will drag it lower if equities refuse to stabilize. ISM was garbage.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,035
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:46am Feb 5, 2008 9:46am
Quoting DutchTrader
AU is a beast, but AJ will drag it lower if equities refuse to stabilize. ISM was garbage.
hahahaha aussie plunge was expected.

did not anyone watched how concerning building permit were.....
so a 25bp increase is more important than a whole consumers health?

probably thats why after RBA raised an aussie selloff was given.

very very normal.cause the things mentioned... i even shorted :

personally expect equities to recover somehow, but with cautionness with aussie and the most concerning "kiwi".

kiwi is a really dangerous pair with a big abysm to the downside, maybe 0.60 in few months?

in my opinion if anyone want to play equities, better to long uj.

and even short eu after a bounce above 1,4750 ....
yep, equities performance is weighing on euro...
  • #2,036
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:22am Feb 5, 2008 10:22am
It is a classic sell on the news act. I shorted a small position at 9080 before the rate hike decision and added on the way down.
  • #2,037
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:59am Feb 5, 2008 10:59am
Okay people, go and rate this thread PLEASE! There are at least 10 other "Aussie pair" threads and since this is the main one it deserves a few stars to separate it form the pack. NOW GO AND VOTE on this super tuesday.
The ballot is in the upper right hand corner.
Just Trade It
  • #2,038
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:51am Feb 5, 2008 11:51am
I vote for AUDUSD in a "yawn" trading range.
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #2,039
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:03pm Feb 5, 2008 5:03pm
isn't this pair suppose to shoot up after the interest rate announcement? aud rate is highest and usd lowest.
  • #2,040
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:29pm Feb 5, 2008 5:29pm
Quoting numlock
isn't this pair suppose to shoot up after the interest rate announcement? aud rate is highest and usd lowest.
Like most markets, it typically shoots up in anticipation of the news on rates. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
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