Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Moving to a smaller time frame...15 mins

Scrapped the ending diagonal wave c potential.

Price went for the Impulsive channel in 5 waves.

Long @ 1.4548 with SL @ 1.4455, 3 pips below FE 261.8 @ 1.4458 which is the rare level of C relation to A @ FE 261.8

EG

EG,,for future reference, an ending diagnal is not a 3,3,3,3,3 pattern......it is 5,3,5,3,5......waves overlap.........

nice call... what do you think its going to happen with GBP/JPY... heading to 200.00?

Hi Tim. Thank you for the reminder.

I just got out in time to capture 24 pips for my Long Trade on EURUSD. that is where the arrow is pointing where I made my exit @ 1.4572

If this works out the way I thought this would as in make that 5 wave move up from a low of 1.4510 on this chart as origin of sub wave c for the wave D up towards the upper edge of the triangle on the Daily chart, then my exit would be too early.

However, since I plan to go to sleep now and get some rest, 24 pips in the bag is still great considering I was able to scalp some more last night (earlier). We can get some more pips later on the move down for wave E or just wait for the end of wave E or better would be wait for the Breakout of the expected triangle.

unless the scenario changes.... then I would have to study the charts again.

Notice the orange Linear Regression channel on the chart. I also use LRC to help me determine potential end of an impulse wave. More like the technique on channeling. So far on that channel, I would say wave 1 of c ended with that RED inverted hammer or shooting star and the bottom of the next red candle is most likely the end of wave 2 unless I am proven wrong and the farthest most red hammer is actually the end. Anyway, exited that trade partly based on the stochastic cross signal and what I seem to see as a finished 5 wave count with that inverted hammer.

capturing the pips now is more important to me than risking it for a potential for some more.

lately, I have started to have a different view with my trading. positive pips in the bag is more of a target now even though how small they may be compared to letting a trade run and risking themby leaving them unless I see a big wave 3 ( in eurusd in particular ).

EG

moving down the lower TFs

wave 2 may just go a little lower some more to give a better entry for the wave 3 Long Trade.

EG

Scanning stochastis on different TFs up to 30min chart, I would say that price still has room to go lower than what you see on the chart in this jpeg.

That should fall in line with the wave 2 retrace level of normally at least 61.8% or up to 100% of wave 1.

Ticks on the chart refer to following and is accompannied by why it is possible to end at that level:

FE 100.0 @ 1.4547 is where c=a is for a zigzag
FE 161.8 @ 1.4527 is at the next Zigzag c projection

61.8 Retracement @ 1.4538 is normal retrace level for wave 2
76.4 coincides with FE 161.8

on the 15min chart, notice the stochastics as it approaches level 20. I would be looking for it to touch level 20 and see the crossing of the 2 lines. If I do not get that , I may just altogether skip trading the potential Long trade. Otherwise, that would have been a high probability set up for a good long trade for wave 3.

as it is, chances are quite good already for this wave 2 as it has already breached the former low level to its left but still short even at 50% retracement. 61.8 retrace would be quite good.

now if only I can get as many signals as possible to align, then I would enter this long trade..... but then I will need to continue watching if I do enter.

on the otherhand, I just remembered, it is the afternoon US session already so there could be very little movement from here on till the Aussies come in or till the Asian session.

well, i will just skip this altogether. better to get some rest.

EG

So far so good...Wave C has begun

to me GBPJPY is in a w4 sideways correction right now for a wave C or 3.

note that I have a magenta horizontal line limit for now on this wave 34. see monthly chart for how I see the direction of price for gbpjpy.

if my wave count is correct and we are indeed on wave 34, then initially, I would assume that wave 34 must not overlap with wave 31 for wave 34 to be valid as a wave 4.

otherwise, an overlap will signal either a possible 5th wave (35) failure or a potential ending diagonal 5th wave on the monthly chart. otherwise, a trend reversal has already taken place.

EG

here is how I see this on the hourly chart.

as you can see, I am trying to fit this wave 5 yellow within the limits of wave 34 first which is somewhere around 198.50

assuming that waves i, ii, iii and iv are valid then using the internal structure of the assumed v wave, by using FIB extention tool, wave 5 yellow is projected to be at either FE 261.8 @ 201.44 or at FE 300.0 @ 200.36, then a potential TP 3 would be @ 200 then TP @ 199.

But because wave 3 yellow was at FE 161.8, I would conservatively target FE 261.8 as the end of wave 5 yellow. The rest will be bonus on the table.

if price goes lower than 34 Limit, ....... then I would have to re assess my wave counts as that would invalidate the basic structure of my wave count on GBPJPY.

initially, a wave 4 UP will be part of the alternative count.

EG

Great work. you were right on this one Jai.

EG

This is probably where we may differ in our view. But this is just a potential count for me.

EG

I just missed that opportunity on the wave 3 up on EURUSD.

But it seems things are going as we potentially saw it being a 3 wave structured wave D UP.

we got our wave b retracement od wave a with that Zigzag wave b.

followed by a rally on the 15min chart then a pullback which just saw near 50% retracement which is still acceptable for wave 2.

Wave 3 could be underway now which has several TP levels. Ultimately, I potentially see price going up near that upper edge of the proposed magenta triangle on the daily if not till the FE 425.0 level @ 1.4868

EG

eurusd charts on the lower tf

EG

count is invalid as set limit was breeched and brokeout to the upside counter to my view of the continuing downward trend.

EG

Good going so far

Hey EG
Good to have u back on GBPJPY EW count...I guess this is wht EW is all about..."Difference of Opinion"...lol
One can't be right on the EW count all the time...that's y I feel its important to compare your counts with people who are good at it...for eg. you...Thus im glad you are back with GBPJPY EW count..

thnx
Jai

I have to brush up on gbpjpy again.. getting rusty here. for me, i think it is really important to have a focus on a particular pair. I am not trading gbpjpy pair right now but currently concentrating on eurusd.

different pairs have different characteristics. their differences come where they retrace, their potential levels of projection, preferred pivot level to bounce from and type of wave structures they normally develop into.

But I will try to put out a gbpjpy count from time to time. Have been busy with other things so need to focus on fewer pairs.

Anyway, keep posting your ew counts Jai.

EG

Thnx for the encouragement EG...I agree with you that its very important to concentrate on one particular pair...That's y I concentrate only on gbpjpy...
All da best
Regards
Jai

Looks like Eurusd is on a sideways expansion for a bigger sideways expanding b.


Approximate TP for b end is at FE 100.0 @ 1.4423 Blue ticked FE.

Stochastics looks like itr still needs to go done on the 1hr chart. If price overlaps with the magenta level which is tops of wave 1 red on the last leg UP, then the 3 waves up that just happened was leg b of a bigger wave b.

price going lower than that magenta line leads me to think that price is coming down for that sub wave c of a Zigzag bigger b towards FE 100.0 @ 1.4423.

EG