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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,561
  • Edited 8:01am Jan 23, 2008 7:38am | Edited 8:01am
Nice charts

Pip,

you got me thinking about early entry what not I am wondering risk reward or use higher tfs for a highly probabilistic entry.
... I am not trading these fibs since I am testing but I made most these fibs real time hence some sloppy and overshot getting my Pa legs down in the context fo fibs. .

I am not live or Demoing this. I am just charting and should it work i will apply MM and demo it. then live. Why complicate things unless you have something good to play with If it performs then whipdee skipdee I will HAPPILY do it all over again. if not I saved some time and got my heart broken again

Hopefully this is of interest or hleps someone OR they can save me from integrating crap into my testing before the truth outs . All suggestions are welcome.

i will post my full Stats after testing cycle is full complete.

Goal

To define, through testing, a repeatable methodlogy using fibs that is non-dscretional and 100% accurate.

Sub goal -

To define acceptable fuzz in tp on pairs to maintain 100% of wins.
Practice
I am practicing placing fibs all over a hand full of pairs as I have something concrete IMO to test finally.

I am mostly doing EU, EJ, GU, GJ, G/CHF, UJ, UCAD, UAUD, NJ, Chf/J. as a scatter, sample obviously favoring USD and yen crosses.

I used a homogenous method and the only thing discretionary-ish is where exactly to pull swings based on PA. . these are darn near all pip perfect IMO

A failure is determined by 100,0 being breached before a 138 is hit.

A success is target being hit within < 2 pips.

A question is a target that comes <10 pips and moves away to fail.

Question will help me define fuzz or fail.


EDIT the discretion comes in the pa part.
1MIN chart
All 1MIN fibs were pulled in the same style and the same methodology.
the third fib was hard because dead to rights I may have pull on that Demand bar but I was waiting for a lower low which might have been three bars back from where I did pull seeing as it hit support and reverberated all the consolidation.

Master Charts
Is the new cycle as I see it. The new chart is stripped to one open and one complete and no Gann Skunny. For testing everything right or wrong was draw the same way.

The red fib was draw on 15M I suppose the black fib could have been drawn on 4hr but it wasn;t.

I am working on being open to building in fuzz to the tp because it is could be construed as arrogant to try to hit to the pip. IMO as long as you are very close. Happy >right FTW.

two biggest practiceable, skill based things have been PA and patience. for me. I have a lot of work to go before I can decide if this is close though as I am a horrible gun jumper with fibs for some reason.

It is interesting see that as a group we all start getting "it" at the same time. like a bell curve;l) pipskateer was apparently on the far left side of the bell hehe, but as long as I am on the curve I am cool as a cucumber in a bowl of hot sauce.
let me know your thoughts gents/gals


Sizz.
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  • #2,562
  • Jan 23, 2008 8:33am Jan 23, 2008 8:33am
Hi Sizz - interesting post - as requested a couple of thoughts:

Goal - 100% accuracy - IMO this is not realistic - it is possible to make a very profitable trading system from a lower accuracy - especially with good money management.

Again I think a 2 pip target for success is too close - especially for the crosses.

Being able to develop a consistantly profitable, repeatable methodology is the Moley Quail and I wish you every success in your quest...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

After this mornings swings in GJ and "demoing" in RT I am totally blown away by the potential of the ideas that Skunny and Bo have shown us.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,563
  • Jan 23, 2008 8:46am Jan 23, 2008 8:46am
Quoting sizzler
Nice charts

Pip,

you got me thinking about early entry what not I am wondering risk reward or use higher tfs for a highly probabilistic entry.
... I am not trading these fibs since I am testing but I made most these fibs real time hence some sloppy and overshot getting my Pa legs down in the context fo fibs. .

I am not live or Demoing this. I am just charting and should it work i will apply MM and demo it. then live. Why complicate things unless you have something good to play with If it performs then whipdee skipdee I will HAPPILY do it all over again. if not I saved some time and got my heart broken again

Hopefully this is of interest or hleps someone OR they can save me from integrating crap into my testing before the truth outs . All suggestions are welcome.

i will post my full Stats after testing cycle is full complete.

let me know your thoughts gents/gals


Sizz.
Sizzler, good luck with that, I'll be very interested in your results. You're going to be busy!!

i've been watching the EJ live all morning, (from 7.00GMT). I have found that moving up and down the time frames, live, has helped me to see the price flows and have a grasp of what is happening far beyond anything I have found before. It's amazing! Not sure what is happening in H1? Go down to M15 or M5 and even M1 and pull fibs there.

What I have also seen is that if for example an hourly bar stops and pulls back for no apparent reason, by moving down the TF's I have been able to find a fib that has completed. It then seems that the lower TF fib will play out until the higher TF gets back on track. All of my fibs pulled today have been to the pip or within 1 pip!

So, if my observation is correct, I think that if any target overshoots in one particular TF, or price just stops and pulls back, it should be explained by a completed fib lower down. Or price has hit a higher TF target , of course.

Does anyone else agree? Or disagree? All comments gratefully rec'd folks.
  • #2,564
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:04am Jan 23, 2008 9:04am
Hi Seb, yes i'm noticing the same, it's a real eye opener.
  • #2,565
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:05am Jan 23, 2008 9:05am
Dinner finished and some pips richer
As you can see on my chart... the fib I draw went straight through the 38 and 62 extension and stopped around the yesterday low.
But seeing the bigger move... yesterday it came down 25 pips shy to the weekly 38 extension, retraced to the weekly 50 and came back today 11 pips shy to the weekly 38 extension.

Maybe an explanation...
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,566
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:20am Jan 23, 2008 9:20am
Watching GJs moves on my 1m in RT has been terrific. Since the high of 208.96 during the Frankfurt Hour, there have been three great down swings from the 38% - 62% retraces, swings of 140, 170 and 200 pips.

Also, it was noticable how these swings were moving around the pivot levels with the low so far a 1m doji to pass the M1 line by 4 pips.

In UJ, off the 15m and 5m charts I had a T1 and a T2 at 104.95. Watching on the 1m, price first bounced off the UJs S2 pivot at 105.04 and then 12 mins later had a graveyard doji spike to hit 104.95.....wow!

I wouldn't be surprised to see a good bounce from these lows - given the ammount of the move so far today, the final push to make new lows just under the 105 and 205 levels looks to me rather like stop sweeping. TWT.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,567
  • Edited 1:28pm Jan 23, 2008 9:35am | Edited 1:28pm
[quote=Islander;1816671]Hi Sizz - interesting post - as requested a couple of thoughts:

Goal - 100% accuracy - IMO this is not realistic - it is possible to make a very profitable trading system from a lower accuracy - especially with good money management.


Issy,


Thanks!! I appreciate the input so far! I will keep everyone posted.

I am about 1 pip off on gy average real time playing the 1M. so we will see. In fact I am seeing high degrees of accuracy akin to that everywhere. It gets a little bigger the higher the tf obvi. lets see if it holds.

Crosses follow the rules like everything else. I don;t see why not. I am open to being wrong. maybe longer legs and some more fuzz but still. This IMO is measuring dynamic s/r in a specific currency pair so it will fit any pair.. not just majors as the prevailing idea seems to be. Also it is not 60% but 100%.

This works on the Dow sp500... on Gold... on anything chartable.. it is an immutable rule of the markets not forex or majors pairs. That is what has me on fire. I charted the dow almost tick perfect (on the chart it looked perfect but you get my drift). my next target is 11669 confirmed.

I do think one can go ahead and play shotgun to the sniper and have a GREAT career. I think it is a fantastic idea. However the reason I am here is for 100% accuracy so I kinda have to shoot for it or I will hate myself in the morning. hehe do what makes you money and happy.

My D1H4 PASR is kinda accurate and overall I keep the lights on and that "kinda" has bothered me ever since one day I hit all my tps to the pip approx based on experimental momentum tf scaling s/r for like xyzz pips over xyz pairs I knew there was something more and then I found this thread.

so here I am. plus my darn OCD. hehe I think this is so awesome I am willing to scrap (or retool) a profitable indicatorless way of trading as I view this as superior. superior.... to pretty much anything..... ever traded that I know of Gann is the only thing I have ever heard of that is better or on par.

if I can;t work this I will just integrate it into my stuff and use it to boost accuracy as I have before and wear a smile everyday. Win win.

seb

I would really go after that if I were you IMO. perhaps.

It isn;t so bad. I normally look after about 10 or so pairs on D1. and now I just set fibs and come back and check on them and update. I am not doing consistant 1m for all of them that would be intense, crazy actually.

I would go so far as to say from observation that ever single candle/bar is completing some fib on some time frame . IMO it is an infinite web of support and resistance and we are just picking and choosig which cycles to observe.

take your successful fibs and look at them from different tfs and your failures. it is really crazy.

If we could meaures a 11 miinute cycle or a 45 second cycle 1.5 month charts.. etc.. I think it would become clearer.

Sizz
  • #2,568
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:45am Jan 23, 2008 9:45am
Quoting Islander
Hi Sizz - interesting post - as requested a couple of thoughts:

Goal - 100% accuracy - IMO this is not realistic - it is possible to make a very profitable trading system from a lower accuracy - especially with good money management.

Again I think a 2 pip target for success is too close - especially for the crosses.

Being able to develop a consistantly profitable, repeatable methodology is the Moley Quail and I wish you every success in your quest...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

After this mornings swings in GJ and "demoing" in RT I am totally blown away by the potential of the ideas that Skunny and Bo have shown us.
Sounds like things are starting to really gel for you! Can you take a moment and kind of summarize some of the notable things that are making things come together for you now? I know you like the smaller tf's. I looked at the 1m for an entry and it really works quite well.
PipHunter
  • #2,569
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:36am Jan 23, 2008 10:36am
Quoting Pip Hunter
Sounds like things are starting to really gel for you! Can you take a moment and kind of summarize some of the notable things that are making things come together for you now? I know you like the smaller tf's. I looked at the 1m for an entry and it really works quite well.
Hi PH - I can try. I guess you know about clicking on a persons name and viewing his posts - and that you've checked on what I've been saying.

Please remember that I am specifically looking at trading GJ during the European session and thus I concentrate on GU, UJ and GJ.

My research over the last few months has led me to be looking very hard at these three between 01:30 est and 3:30 est - this is when the main moves for my session start. I have the 15m and 5m charts open for each pair and have the relevent fib swings on each chart. I also have a 1m GJ chart open and this is where I do most of my fib walking.

I see the retraces into the 38% to 62% zone - my Decision Zone - as the key. How price reacts in this Zone gives you the clue as what to expect next - even if it blows straight thu' and out the other side.

With practice you get to know where the lastest fib should be as you get the idea of how long pricewise the tradeable swings are - and these IMO are what we are looking for.

Hope this helps - I'm now much better at letting the trades "come to me" - and that was one of my big problems! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,570
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:52am Jan 23, 2008 10:52am
Quoting Islander
Hi PH - I can try. I guess you know about clicking on a persons name and viewing his posts - and that you've checked on what I've been saying.

Please remember that I am specifically looking at trading GJ during the European session and thus I concentrate on GU, UJ and GJ.

My research over the last few months has led me to be looking very hard at these three between 01:30 est and 3:30 est - this is when the main moves for my session start. I have the 15m and 5m charts open for each pair and have the relevent fib swings on each chart. I also have a 1m GJ chart open and this is where I do most of my fib walking.

I see the retraces into the 38% to 62% zone - my Decision Zone - as the key. How price reacts in this Zone gives you the clue as what to expect next - even if it blows straight thu' and out the other side.

With practice you get to know where the lastest fib should be as you get the idea of how long pricewise the tradeable swings are - and these IMO are what we are looking for.

Hope this helps - I'm now much better at letting the trades "come to me" - and that was one of my big problems! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Cool...that's a nice summary. I read you would remove a fib if it didn't hit the target before turning around. So then your not swinging the fib to include that move? Also, is your main or best entry point, as price comes out of the dz?

Thanks guy...really appreciate your comments!
PipHunter
  • #2,571
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:39am Jan 23, 2008 11:39am
Quoting Pip Hunter
Cool...that's a nice summary. I read you would remove a fib if it didn't hit the target before turning around. So then your not swinging the fib to include that move? Also, is your main or best entry point, as price comes out of the dz?

Thanks guy...really appreciate your comments!
For me, if there is a breakout of the 0-100 range and it fails to reach the 132 extension - T1 - and then retraces back into that range then I'll redraw the fib to allow for that extended range, That way I'm taking into account the lastest and IMO the most important price action - walking the Fib.

Yes, I currently view the best entry point as the exit from the DZ in the direction of the move - i.e. as a continuation trade. Before I learnt from Skunny and got naked I used the 34ema as a guide for retracements and the levels reached are similar, but this is IMO far superior for clarity and ease of use - better KISS!

I also believe that this type of entry reduces the risk inherent in a breakout trade - but as always, let's remember that this is Skunny's thread and I dont doubt that we will hear more from him on this subject -soon please! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,572
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:45am Jan 23, 2008 11:45am
I've been trying to comfortable with entering as price exits the dz area. That's when it's been a great help to drop to the 1m to see price show signs of s/r as it bounces in and around the inner fib levels. One of my biggest problems is PATIENCE and that's probably due to my still building confidence in what I'm trading. Last night and this morning I had a total of 10 trades, 7 positive and 3 BE for a total of +86 pips net. But like I told Skunny, I don't demo well because I can't take it serious enough so I use mini lots. I would be hugely better off if I could just let er run because they always hit their targets anyway. But I am getting better that goodness!
PipHunter
  • #2,573
  • Jan 23, 2008 12:02pm Jan 23, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
I've been trying to comfortable with entering as price exits the dz area. That's when it's been a great help to drop to the 1m to see price show signs of s/r as it bounces in and around the inner fib levels. One of my biggest problems is PATIENCE and that's probably due to my still building confidence in what I'm trading. Last night and this morning I had a total of 10 trades, 7 positive and 3 BE for a total of +86 pips net. But like I told Skunny, I don't demo well because I can't take it serious enough so I use mini lots. I would be hugely better off if I could just let er run because they always hit their targets anyway. But I am getting better that goodness!
LOL PH - I found Karmo's Patience Pills helped, but better still is learning to flow with the markets with the Fib Map to guide you - then you get confidence to take the trade. I also agree about limited demo, mini lots help the concentration - its real San Miguel / Rioja / Absolute at stake!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,574
  • Jan 23, 2008 12:25pm Jan 23, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting Islander
Hi PH - I can try. I guess you know about clicking on a persons name and viewing his posts - and that you've checked on what I've been saying.

Please remember that I am specifically looking at trading GJ during the European session and thus I concentrate on GU, UJ and GJ.

My research over the last few months has led me to be looking very hard at these three between 01:30 est and 3:30 est - this is when the main moves for my session start. I have the 15m and 5m charts open for each pair and have the relevent fib swings on each chart. I also have a 1m GJ chart open and this is where I do most of my fib walking.

I see the retraces into the 38% to 62% zone - my Decision Zone - as the key. How price reacts in this Zone gives you the clue as what to expect next - even if it blows straight thu' and out the other side.

With practice you get to know where the lastest fib should be as you get the idea of how long pricewise the tradeable swings are - and these IMO are what we are looking for.

Hope this helps - I'm now much better at letting the trades "come to me" - and that was one of my big problems! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
excellent summary Islander, Thanks.

I too like the pre-London opening hours, I'm in PST and things on the charts start cooking here around 10:30 p.m. (1:30 EST) and I try to stay awake till at least 2:00 or 3:00 a.m. my time which is about 11:00 London time.

I like the whole decision zone concept, for me the more touches I see within that zone the better I feel about where price is headed. Ideally, if there a few touches in each area as price makes its way up or down it makes it much more easier to act like a sniper when entering a trade before the 0/100 break.

Thanks again Islander........
trading naked.......
  • #2,575
  • Jan 23, 2008 1:55pm Jan 23, 2008 1:55pm
Quoting jwilliamson
Skunny do you recommend trading with automated EA systems?

I have been using Avonko for a while and it has been very good to me, but I do want to branch out and start trading discretionary on my own. I just like how I can focus on other goals while Avonko trades my account for me and makes a good return.

Do you think I should set up a separate account to start trading on my own judgment or should I use the same account that my system uses? I don't want to blow up the account if the avonko system is going to keep making me a profit there

Pls advise!

Thanks
James
Something makes me think that you haven't read through this thread - hint, its about your own journey of discovery - I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for too many replies.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,576
  • Edited 2:09pm Jan 23, 2008 1:59pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
I just picked out a random time frame of days on the 1 hour chart for the GBP/USD and drew some fibs on the daily hi/lo range. The next day if it broke the hi or low it acheived the 138 and in most cases more. Of course, I am not drawing these fibs on significant swings of s/r that would probably show a more exact target at the 138 but it is nice to know that out of 8 days there were 8 trades that hit the target. The only exception is what Pip HIt Man wrote where that day it traded inside the previous days hi/lo range but the following day it hit the 138 of the prior two days. AWESOME!!!!!!

Daniel
I've been doing the same type of exercise on live demo from Jan 15 to Jan 23.

I traded most pairs using hourly bars high/low on the 5 minute time frame.

If the 5 minute bar closes above the 1 hour high, or below the 1 hour low...i took the trade with a TP at the 138 extension.

Out of 83 trades...77 hit my TP for a gain. 3 of the losses i chickened out and manually closed them,(they would of hit TP but not quick enough for me).

2 losses i entered at a market top and had to close them. Price never reached TP.

1 loss i entered at a market bottom and had to close it. Price never reached TP.

Promising results so far, now i am not taking trades near daily high or lows to avoid losses at tops and bottoms.


Also my first 38 trades in a row hit TP! Luck probably...but we'll see over time.


Charlie
  • #2,577
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:07pm Jan 23, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting Islander
Something makes me think that you haven't read through this thread - hint, its about your own journey of discovery - I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for too many replies.
That poster has been a member for 5 days and has 13 posts, 8 of which are about the EA they mentioned which is apparently for sale at some website.

I'm just doing the math. Reach your own conclusions.
  • #2,578
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:17pm Jan 23, 2008 2:17pm
Quoting capitalist88
That poster has been a member for 5 days and has 13 posts, 8 of which are about the EA they mentioned which is apparently for sale at some website.

I'm just doing the math. Reach your own conclusions.
Yeah, I guess I should have just hit the report icon - but I've done that once already today!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,579
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:35pm Jan 23, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting seb123
i've been watching the EJ live all morning, (from 7.00GMT). I have found that moving up and down the time frames, live, has helped me to see the price flows and have a grasp of what is happening far beyond anything I have found before. It's amazing! Not sure what is happening in H1? Go down to M15 or M5 and even M1 and pull fibs there.

What I have also seen is that if for example an hourly bar stops and pulls back for no apparent reason, by moving down the TF's I have been able to find a fib that has completed. It then seems that the lower TF fib will play out until the higher TF gets back on track. All of my fibs pulled today have been to the pip or within 1 pip!

So, if my observation is correct, I think that if any target overshoots in one particular TF, or price just stops and pulls back, it should be explained by a completed fib lower down. Or price has hit a higher TF target , of course.

Does anyone else agree? Or disagree? All comments gratefully rec'd folks.
Seb...

Agreed. I see the same thing all the time. It really is bizarre that these levels are respected on multiple levels. Given the fractal nature of our charts....as Sizz said, we could probably see the same thing on a 85 minute or 1.38 hour chart.

My head is still spinning with this. I've seen this work all the way down to very small swings on the 1M charts. Cool....but it could drive you nuts trying to actually fib and trade some many swings.
  • #2,580
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:20pm Jan 23, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting Brunite
Seb...

Agreed. I see the same thing all the time. It really is bizarre that these levels are respected on multiple levels. Given the fractal nature of our charts....as Sizz said, we could probably see the same thing on a 85 minute or 1.38 hour chart.

My head is still spinning with this. I've seen this work all the way down to very small swings on the 1M charts. Cool....but it could drive you nuts trying to actually fib and trade some many swings.

Heck yeah it would Brunite!

you would end up in the squirrel farm! You could be my chess partner!

I am just training the 1 min mainly as cannon fodder to massively test my fibbing tech. I can test my fibbing a ton on a 60 min period with 1 minute bars live

If it holds there, well , it holds everywhere.

You really have to be able IMO to interpret pa and flow to hit it right because obviously the extreme high or extreme low doesn;t mean it is the swing all the time or at least the right swing. , less so, the smaller you get IMO.

I end up fibbing the 5's on the 1's etc which isn;t bad . like my last 1 min chart. Fibbing the 1's is a fricking mess. you are redrawing fibs ever 3 minutes for 3 pips profit

Sometimes the market is so messed up I have problems reading it so I have to sit out or scale tfs to find one that is clearer. The market tells you where the swings are by price action. IMO. LIke that EJ chart Skunny posted. I rebuilt and played it in the 15's and that helped me a lot in my research. right or wrong. I pretty much am always playing the tf directly below the one I fibbed as I see it.



Sizz
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