Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Will we see a rally on Monday?

Hi there,

Rather than rallying, this pair seems to be heavy till now.

Which pair are you referring to?

EG

Based on Figures gathered from Elliott Wave International reference material.

Attached is a summarized form of corrective wave patterns. There are still some variations specially on the complex side. But I will try to gather some more so I can post them here.

The summary below can be sued as a reference in my assessment of the EURUSD potential direction.

As you can see in my Daily and 4hour charts even from Last Friday yet before that plunge, Price assessment was considered to be in the downward direction and there were 4 suggested potential patterns.

Basically, we had a 3wave structure for the 1st leg A from 1.4966 down to 1.4309. So if you look @ the possible options for a cortrective wave , we cannot have the basic zigzag because the wave A leg should be in 5 waves and this is only 3 waves.

So the next option is the Flat or the triangle. But technically we can not have the flat because wave 2 was already a flat .

Then that leaves us with the triangle option which as you will see would fit into the the pattern that has 3 waves for the wave "a" then now we see 3 waves up for the wave "b". As for the succeeding waves which should all be in 3 wave structures also, we will have to see 3 more ( waves c d and e ) then a breakout from the triangle.

In my Daily and 4hour chart , first you will see the Running Flat. I expected that first just incase price forms a 3 wave structure down from 1.4921 down to somewhere around 1.4561 which was the FE 200.00 from 1.4921 then bounce to go higher than 1.4921. That would have been a running FLAT.

However, Price has continued to form and finish 5 waves down to 1.4589 then retraced and expanded sideways which could now form wave C down after it finished the waves A and B.

Which is why I am nect looking at price bouncing off either of those 2 magenta trendlines which were constructed using Low points on the left side of the chart. FE 300.00 @ 1.4413 falls near the level of 1 of the magenta trendlines for the triangle.

If high of 1.4714 is considered as the end of an X wave and if I see 5 waves are formed going down towards FE 300.0 @ 1.4413 and bouncing off that magenta trendline, then next to look for are 2 more legs which 1st would bounce up to the upper side of the visualized triangle then another bounce backdown to the lower nagenta line to complete what is possibly the 5 legs of the triangle.

I would trade a breakout at the top side of the triangle for my Long trade.

However, if price from 1.4714 continues to go down and breaksout to the downside of 1.4413 , it is more likely that a triangle is off the table and a more complex corrective wave may be forming or even a bigger zigzag wave which could see price going towards 1.4267 or even lower towards 1.3862 or even 1.3208 based on the FIB Projection using the relationship of wave C to wave A.

EG

A Flat will most likely not be seen because of the Rule of Alternation

Below are links for 3 Videos on Elliott Wave Principles courtedy of Elliott Wave International.

Why Use The Wave Principles?
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/prot...ciple/why.aspx

What is the Wave Principle?
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/prot...iple/what.aspx

How To Trade The Wave Principles
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/prot...ciple/how.aspx

The above videos serv e as a basic reviewer and a beginner's course on Elliott Wave Principles.

Below is a link to their 10 Part Lesson on Elliott Wave Principle
http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/defa...=2882&id=16748

Using Fibonacci with Elliott Wave Principles
Article on "Learn How Fibonacci Techniques Can Identify Market Turns, Now!"
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/default.aspx?aid=2367

All the Learning Materials are FREE. You just have to sign up for a free Club EWI membership.

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EG

Looking/Waiting for the C leg of the Triangle

Moved initial TP down to 1.4430

EG

to finish a sub wave 5 of wave c within a bigger wave C, price needs to dip some more towards the lower edge of the proposed triangle.

if a bounce occurs, it could be wave D.

but if a breakout occurs and not just a breech, then price may continue to go down to fullfil a FLAT or a more complex wave 4

EG

No clear breakout yet from the Triangle set up.

EG

trying to make sense of all the nonsense

Price has moved back UP above the median line of the Andrew's Pitchfork on the Daily Chart.

Lower side of the proposed triangle was breeched. However no breakout was seen on the Daily and the 4 hour chart yet. Just had it breeched.

a new 4 hour candle has opened above the median line. If it closes above the median line, chances are higher that this will continue upwards with some retraces a long the way towards the upper side of the proposed triangle.

Looking forward to a 3 wave structure towards the upper side of this triangle.

If price goes higher than Low of Green A 1.4589, then this is a second confirmation that we are more likely to get that 3 wave up.

EG

Could be a sideways retracement for now to pan out a 3 wave structure goung up to the upper side of the Triangle of EURUSD.

EG

for those interested in GOLD, This commodity has caught my attention since December of 2007 when it was developing the Triangle wave 4.

This is how I would watch it .

EG

wave 3 and 4 RED of Wave C green wave count were revised.

wave 2 green rertaced 38.2
wave 4 retraced 23.6

new wave 2 or b BLUE may retrace
38.2
50
61.8

looking for a 3 wave structure pullback or retrace from 1.4683 towards 1.4365

EG

2 opposite Potential Directions for EURUSD

EG

EURUSD seemed to have taken the path for a 5 wave structured wave A Green A5.

Followed by a Zigzag wave B. Note on the far right side Green FIB Extention Tool that Price pierced the FE 100.0 Level @ 1.4577
Note also the Purple FIB Retracement tool on the FAR Right where we see that Zigzag Wave B has made a 35% retracement of wave A.

Now... technically, wave B is supposed to retrace wave A by at least 50%. However, I do not think this is a hard fast rule. Specially because a C=A has been achieved within a 23.6-38.2% retracement.

A little help was drawn from Stochastics and ADX on the 5min , 15 min and 30min charts.

So I favor more the Upward move of Price for now to complete the wave D up to the upper side of the wave 4 Triangle on the Daily Chart.

UNLESS...

Price going higher than previous high on the zigzag component @ 1.4645 will increase chances of going up while

Price going lower than 1.4575 which was the end of the Zigzag wave B will indicate that previously thought of as wave B was actually sub wave 1 of a sub wave c of wave B


EG

PS. I have scalped the wave B Leg for 12 and 24 pips earlier. But am now out of the trade. Looking at how this will develop.

Preferring to enter a Short trade from the top unless a good opportunity to place a Long Trade to 1.4850 arises.

Still not in a trade.

Price has breeched and broken out to the downside of 1.4575.

So scenario will now be a continuing development of wave b to the down side. This means a sub wave c from 1.4645 going down to either of the following levels:

FIB Extention tool
FE 100.0 Attained
FE 161.8 @ 1.4532
FE 261.6 @ 1.4461 This should be the maximum projection which is said to be rare for the C relationship with A on a Zigzag

FIB Retracement Tool
38.2% @ 1.4562 has been attained
50% @ 1.4525 minimum supposed to be for a wave B
61.8% @ 1.4487
78.6% @ apprtoximately 1.4434 maximum for wave B to retrace wave A

78.6% retrace is a level way beyond the maximum allowed for a Rare Zigzag C relationship with A

I will look for an opportunity to trade Long on this pair once 50-61.8% retrace is attained. Will look at stochastics, adx and trendlines within each TF to determine potential entry for a LONG Trade.

EG

Potential for an Ending Diagonal wave c to end wave B

EG

So far going as planned

the 3-3-3-3-3 pattern for the triangle seemed incomplete with the throwover.

It could be a bigger triangle or turn out to be an impulse wave c so a channel is proposed.

EG

Not trading yet. But just trying to track the price.

Waiting for the better opportunity to trade.

chart is on 1 minute TF.

EG