Elliott Wave Counting with EG | Page 81 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Automatic Elliott Wave Counting & Analysis 10 replies

Can anyone help me with counting Elliott waves 1 reply

The Basics of Elliott Wave Theory 128 replies

Is there any website show the elliott counting? 8 replies

Elliott Wave Counting DJIA 0 replies

Attachments: Elliott Wave Counting with EG
Exit Attachments

Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #1,601
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:03am Jan 16, 2008 10:03am
I think I have made a huge mistake in my wave count.

I am now looking at a 4hour chartand realize that
wave 2 is @ 1.4638
wave 3.1 is @ 1.4921
wave 3.2 has up to 1.4638 to retrace

A breech of 1.4638 and price going to 1.4635 will definitely invalidate wave 3.2 count.

Price is now at 1.4677

EG
  • #1,602
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:25pm Jan 16, 2008 9:25pm
Quoting el grande
I think I have made a huge mistake in my wave count.

I am now looking at a 4hour chartand realize that
wave 2 is @ 1.4638
wave 3.1 is @ 1.4921
wave 3.2 has up to 1.4638 to retrace

A breech of 1.4638 and price going to 1.4635 will definitely invalidate wave 3.2 count.

Price is now at 1.4677

EG
===
resume U explanation..
i will take short at range price 4695-4700 and target 4540..
it's realible target..
  • #1,603
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:01pm Jan 16, 2008 11:01pm
Here is the Medium to Longer Term View on EURUSD.

Price has breeched a lot of the supports to maintain potential counts that where Bullish.

Right now, this count on the Daily is the only 1 remaining in my options.

Note that there are 3 ticked levels which I use as standard targets when using the FIB Extention tool.

I am not planning to enter any trades on EURUSD yet. I will most probably wait for the next BULL trend before entering.


EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_011708_001_daily.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,604
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:04pm Jan 16, 2008 11:04pm
Here are the Alternatives:

I

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_011708_001a_daily.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #1,605
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:38pm Jan 16, 2008 11:38pm
Attached is a wave count Potential for the Wave C 1st level ( abc projection/extention ) which looks like it would end at an FE 61.8 coinciding with an internal projection within wave C using w012 and coming up with wave 5 at FE 261.8 and FE 300.0.

Although this may not really fit into a triangle situation. if it does make that 5 wave move down, then it could just be leg A and expect a retrace Up for X then another leg down for C towards FE 100 or FE 161.8

Fort the Triangle to pan out, there was to be 5 waves all having a 3 wave structure (33333 - overall structure)

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_011708_001b_h1.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,606
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:09am Jan 17, 2008 12:09am
just remember EG, waves do not have to end as volume ends for the day......so be careful putting a wave count on just a daily low.......or high....count waves, not spikes.....
  • #1,607
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:33am Jan 17, 2008 1:33am
Quoting Learntocount
just remember EG, waves do not have to end as volume ends for the day......so be careful putting a wave count on just a daily low.......or high....count waves, not spikes.....

Tim,

I am still ignorant on how to apply the volume factor into my EW analysis. Can you please lead me to reference I can go through if the subject matter is too long to explain? I think I tried that before to rationalize trading GAPS. Then later encountered issues that Volume data on MT4 are not that accurate so I dropped it from my charts

As for the spikes, I have been straddling that concept lately specially when I started doing counts on GBPJPY. I would at times shift to line charts instead of candlestick charts to get a different idea and do away with the spikes.

Thank you for the warning.

EG
  • #1,608
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:58am Jan 17, 2008 1:58am
there is no volume indicator that can be relied on......by lunchtime NY the day is usually done except for profit taking by day traders.....this shows up as flags off the days lows and/or highs.......corrective waves form in ABC's for the most part, those are waves.....best to count waves on 3 hour/4 hr. and daily charts.....this gives you your "bias"....there is nothing harder to do than count waves on a 1 hr or less chart......it gets to complicated.....use a wave count on longer term charts, this will give you your direction, then go to the shorter term charts and trade price action, patterns etc.......you'll find you don't need to use roman numerals and letters so much and you'll have time to do other things while you're making money away from the comp.....
  • #1,609
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:09pm Jan 17, 2008 3:09pm
I just found your forum today. But as I have been examining the EUR/USD count on my own this week, I saw the double top we had (which did not make a new high) as a big sign that we were not going up in the short term. I think your ABC scenario makes sense with what the chart is showing. Let's see how it pans out.
  • #1,610
  • Jan 19, 2008 10:27pm Jan 19, 2008 10:27pm
Quoting LadyofMusic1
I just found your forum today. But as I have been examining the EUR/USD count on my own this week, I saw the double top we had (which did not make a new high) as a big sign that we were not going up in the short term. I think your ABC scenario makes sense with what the chart is showing. Let's see how it pans out.
Welcome to the thread LadyofMusic1. You are encouraged to post and share your charts here whenever you want.

For the EURUSD, You can see that there are several options for the continued expansion of wave 4 on the hourly charts up to the weekly charts.

The first is the possibility of having a wave 4 triangle in the form of a 33333 structure where at least 2 legs now form part of that triangle and the 3rd one looks like still in the b wave inside the C wave. Wave a leg of the wave C down seems to have completed the 5 waves down to 1.4602 and has expanded sideways on the 1 hr chart. It is most likely that price will go down towards 1.4422 which is the Magenta lower side of the triangle you see on the 4hr and Daily Chart.

But a break of that lower side could lead to the formation of a Corrective FLAT or if lower still, could result in a zigzag.

EG
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_011708_001b_h1.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_011708_001e_h1.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_011708_001f_h1.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_011708_001g_h1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,611
  • Jan 20, 2008 6:57am Jan 20, 2008 6:57am
I have often used the following as a Guideline for deciding on whether a wave count is an ABC or a 12345.

It all starts as A or 1; B or 2 and C or 3

if C = A1.618-1.766 then it still can be C. However it will be 3 when it goes over 1.763.

I was just reviewing tonight the details on the link that Marketwavez gave for EW at another thread and while reviewing again the Basic Tenets of EW, I came across this:

"In a regular flat correction, waves A, B and C are, of course, approximately equal. In an expanded flat correction, wave C is usually 1.618 times the length of wave A. Often wave C will terminate beyond the end of wave A by .618 times the length of wave A. Each of these tendencies are illustrated in Figure 35. In rare cases, wave C is 2.618 times the length of wave A. Wave B in an expanded flat is sometimes 1.236 or 1.382 times the length of wave A. "

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ts/basics5.htm

This means that the limits for C now goes to C = A2.618, and beyond this will ensure a 12345 count and be classified as Impulsive and not asa corrective wave.

EG
  • #1,612
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:09am Jan 20, 2008 7:09am
Attached to this Post is a Discussion of Corrective Waves from Elliott Wave international website which I would like to put here for quick and easy reference:

Oftentimes I would need to refer back to these discussions and illustrations to explain my position.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ts/basics3.htm

CORRECTIVE WAVES
Markets move against the trend of one greater degree only with a seeming struggle. Resistance from the larger trend appears to prevent a correction from developing a full impulsive structure. The struggle between the two oppositely trending degrees generally makes corrective waves less clearly identifiable than impulsive waves, which always flow with comparative ease in the direction of the one larger trend. As another result of the conflict between trends, corrective waves are quite a bit more varied than impulsive waves.

Corrective patterns fall into four main categories:

Zigzags (5-3-5; includes three variations: single, double, triple);
Flats (3-3-5; includes three variations: regular, expanded, running);
Triangles (3-3-3-3-3; four types: ascending, descending, contracting, expanding);
Double threes and triple threes (combined structures).


ZIGZAGS (5-3-5)
A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C and subdividing 5-3-5. The top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures 11 and 12.
Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three" (labeled X), producing what is called a double zigzag (see Figure 13) or triple zigzag. The zigzags are labeled W and Y (and Z, if a triple).

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_11.gif
Figure 11
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_12.gif
Figure 12


http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_13.gif
Figure 13

  • #1,613
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:11am Jan 20, 2008 7:11am
FLATS (3-3-5)
A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 14 and 15. Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and, not surprisingly, terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags.
Flat corrections usually retrace less of preceding impulse waves than do zigzags. They participate in periods involving a strong larger trend and thus virtually always precede or follow extensions. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.
Three types of 3-3-5 corrections have been identified by differences in their overall shape. In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A, as we have shown in Figures 14 and 15. Far more common, however, is the variety called an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A, as shown in Figures 16 and 17.
In a rare variation on the 3-3-5 pattern, which we call a running flat, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in an expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended. There are hardly any examples of this type of correction in the price record.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_14.gif
Figure 14
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_15.gif
Figure 15
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_16.gif
Figure 16
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_17.gif
Figure 17

  • #1,614
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:13am Jan 20, 2008 7:13am
HORIZONTAL TRIANGLES (TRIANGLES)
Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3. They appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles fall into four main categories as illustrated in Figure 18. These illustrations depict the first three types as taking place within the area of preceding price action, in what may be termed regular triangles. However, it is quite common, particularly in contracting triangles, for wave b to exceed the start of wave a in what may be termed a running triangle, as shown in Figure 19.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig18.gif
Figure 18


http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_19.gif
Figure 19

Although upon extremely rare occasions a second wave in an impulse appears to take the form of a triangle, triangles nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i.e., as wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, or the final wave X in a double or triple zigzag or combination (see next section).
COMBINATIONS (DOUBLE AND TRIPLE THREES)
Elliott called sideways combinations of corrective patterns “double threes" and “triple threes." While a single three is any zigzag or flat, a triangle is an allowable final component of such combinations and in this context is called a "three." A double or triple three, then, is a combination of simpler types of corrections, including the various types of zigzags, flats and triangles. Their occurrence appears to be the flat correction's way of extending sideways action. As with double and triple zigzags, each simple corrective pattern is labeled W, Y and Z. The reactionary waves, labeled X, can take the shape of any corrective pattern but are most commonly zigzags. Figures 20 and 21 show two examples of double threes.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_20.gif
Figure 20
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_21.gif
Figure 21

For the most part, double threes and triple threes are horizontal in character. One reason for this trait is that there is never more than one zigzag in a combination. Neither is there more than one triangle. Recall that triangles occurring alone precede the final movement of a larger trend. Combinations appear to recognize this character and sport triangles only as the final wave in a double or triple three.
All the patterns illustrated here take the same form whether within a larger rising or falling trend. In a falling trend, they are simply inverted.
  • #1,615
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:21am Jan 20, 2008 7:21am
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ts/basics2.htm

MOTIVE WAVES
Motive waves subdivide into five waves with certain characteristics and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. They are straightforward and relatively easy to recognize and interpret.
Within motive waves, wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1, and wave 4 never retraces more than 100% of wave 3. Wave 3, moreover, always travels beyond the end of wave 1. The goal of an impulse is to make progress, and these rules of formation assure that it will.
Elliott further discovered that in price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among waves 1, 3 and 5. As long as wave 3 undergoes a greater percentage movement than either wave 1 or 5, this rule is satisfied. It almost always holds on an arithmetic basis as well. There are two types of motive waves: impulses and diagonal triangles.
IMPULSE
The most common motive wave is an impulse. In an impulse, wave 4 does not enter the territory of (i.e., “overlap”) wave 1. This rule holds for all non-leveraged cash basis markets. Futures markets, with their extreme leverage, can induce short term price extremes that would not occur in cash markets. Even so, overlapping is usually confined to daily and intraday price fluctuations and even then is extremely rare. In addition, the actionary subwaves (1, 3 and 5) of an impulse are themselves motive, and subwave 3 is specifically an impulse. Figures 2, 3 and 4 all depict impulses in the 1, 3, 5, A and C wave positions.
As detailed in the preceding four paragraphs, there are only a few simple rules for interpreting impulses properly. A rule is so called because it governs all waves to which it applies. Typical, yet not inevitable, characteristics of waves are called guidelines, which are discussed in an upcoming section. A rule should never be disregarded. In many years of practice with countless patterns, the authors have found but one instance above Subminuette degree when all other rules and guidelines combined to suggest that a rule was broken. Analysts who routinely break any of the rules detailed in this section are practicing some form of analysis other than that guided by the Wave Principle. These rules have great practical utility in correct counting, which we will explore further in discussing extensions.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig_4.gif
Figure 4

Extension
Most impulses contain what Elliott called an extension. Extensions are elongated impulses with exaggerated subdivisions. The vast majority of impulse waves do contain an extension in one and only one of their three impulsive subwaves (1, 3 or 5). The diagrams in Figure 4, illustrating extensions, will clarify this point.
Often the third wave of an extended third wave is an extension, producing a profile such as shown in Figure 5.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig_5.gif
Figure 5


Truncation
A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 6 and 7.
Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target. This annoyance is counterbalanced by its clear implications for persistence in the new direction of trend.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig_6.gif
Figure 6
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig_8.gif
Figure 7

  • #1,616
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:23am Jan 20, 2008 7:23am
DIAGONAL TRIANGLES (WEDGES)
A diagonal triangle is an impulsive pattern, yet not an impulse, as it has one or two corrective characteristics. Diagonal triangles substitute for impulses at specific locations in the wave structure. They are the only five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend within which wave four almost always moves into the price territory of (i.e., overlaps) wave one. On rare occasions, a diagonal triangle may end in a truncation, although in our experience, such truncations occur only by the slimmest of margins.
Ending Diagonal
An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B- C formations. In double or triple threes (see next section), they appear only as the final "C" wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement.
Ending diagonals take a wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including waves 1, 3 and 5, subdividing into a "three," which is otherwise a corrective wave phenomenon. The ending diagonal is illustrated in Figures 8 and 9 and shown in its typical position in larger impulse waves.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig_8.gif
Figure 8
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig_9.gif
Figure 9

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_10.gif
Figure 10

Leading Diagonal
When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the first wave position of impulses and in the A wave position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves one and four and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5, or 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 10) does fit the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a "continuation" message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. This pattern must be noted because the analyst could mistake it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves, as illustrated in Figure 5.
The main key to recognizing this pattern is the decided slowing of momentum in the fifth subwave relative to the third. By contrast, in developing first and second waves, phenomena such as short term speed of movement and breadth (i.e., the number of stocks or subindexes participating) often expands.
  • #1,617
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:30am Jan 20, 2008 7:30am
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ts/basics5.htm

RATIO ANALYSIS
Ratio analysis has revealed a number of precise price relationships that occur often among waves. There are two categories of relationships: retracements and multiples.
Retracements
Fairly often, a correction retraces a Fibonacci percentage of the preceding wave. As illustrated in Figure 26, sharp corrections tend more often to retrace 61.8% or 50% of the previous wave, particularly when they occur as wave 2 of an impulse wave, wave B of a larger zigzag, or wave X in a multiple zigzag. Sideways corrections tend more often to retrace 38.2% of the previous impulse wave, particularly when they occur as wave 4, as shown in Figure 27.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_26.gif

Figure 26
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ages/fig27.gif
Figure 27



Retracements are where most analysts place their focus. Far more reliable, however, are relationships between alternate waves, or lengths unfolding in the same direction, as explained in the next section.
Motive Wave Multiples
When wave 3 is extended, waves 1 and 5 tend towards equality or a .618 relationship, as illustrated in Figure 28. Actually, all three impulsive waves tend to be related by Fibonacci mathematics, whether by equality, 1.618 or 2.618 (whose inverses are .618 and .382). These impulse wave relationships usually occur in percentage terms. For instance, wave I from 1932 to 1937 gained 371.6%, while wave III from 1942 to 1966 gained 971.7%, or 2.618 times as much.
Wave 5's length is sometimes related by the Fibonacci ratio to the length of wave 1 through wave 3, as illustrated in Figure 29. In those rare cases when wave 1 is extended, it is wave 2 that often subdivides the entire impulse wave into the Golden Section, as shown in Figure 30.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...s/fig28-30.gif
Figure 28 Figure 29 Figure 30

In a related observation, unless wave 1 is extended, wave 4 often divides the price range of an impulse wave into the Golden Section. In such cases, the latter portion is .382 of the total distance when wave 5 is not extended, as shown in Figure 31, and .618 when it is, as shown in Figure 32. This guideline explains why a retracement following a fifth wave often has double resistance at the same level: the end of the preceding fourth wave and the .382 retracement point.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_31.gif
Figure 31
http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_32.gif
Figure 32

  • #1,618
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:30am Jan 20, 2008 7:30am
  •  4x_Trader
  • Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Is the market a FRIENDLY place to U | 639 Posts | Online Now
Wow it looks like we are in a seminar of Technical Analysis and our subject for today is Elliott Wave Counting with EG! Thanks for sharing your expertise 'tol! Way to go!
  • #1,619
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:32am Jan 20, 2008 7:32am
Corrective Wave Multiples
In a zigzag, the length of wave C is usually equal to that of wave A, as shown in Figure 33, although it is not uncommonly 1.618 or .618 times the length of wave A. This same relationship applies to a second zigzag (labeled Y) relative to the first (labeled W) in a double zigzag pattern, as shown in Figure 34.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...s/fig33-34.gif
Figure 33 Figure 34

In a regular flat correction, waves A, B and C are, of course, approximately equal. In an expanded flat correction, wave C is usually 1.618 times the length of wave A. Often wave C will terminate beyond the end of wave A by .618 times the length of wave A. Each of these tendencies are illustrated in Figure 35. In rare cases, wave C is 2.618 times the length of wave A. Wave B in an expanded flat is sometimes 1.236 or 1.382 times the length of wave A.

http://elliotwave.net/educational/ba...ges/fig_35.gif
Figure 35

In a triangle, we have found that at least two of the alternate waves are typically related to each other by .618. I.e., in a contracting, ascending or descending triangle, wave e = .618c, wave c = .618a, or wave d = .618b. In an expanding triangle, the multiple is 1.618.
In double and triple corrections, the net travel of one simple pattern is sometimes related to another by equality or, particularly if one of the threes is a triangle, by .618. Finally, wave 4 quite commonly spans a gross or net price range that has an equality or Fibonacci relationship to its corresponding wave 2. As with impulse waves, these relationships usually occur in percentage terms.
These guidelines increase dramatically in utility when used together, as several are simultaneously applicable in almost every situation at the various degrees of trend.
  • #1,620
  • Jan 20, 2008 7:43am Jan 20, 2008 7:43am
Quoting 4x_Trader
Wow it looks like we are in a seminar of Technical Analysis and our subject for today is Elliott Wave Counting with EG! Thanks for sharing your expertise 'tol! Way to go!
Hi Bro. or Sis? unless the girl on the pic is your GF....

This is both for me and the rest of the traders out there interested to study EW. I have found it difficult to support a position or wave count I make unless I can show some illustration to explain a scenario's similarity to a particular EW pattern.

Later, I will try to put in here some notes I have made too on Price Projection based on FIBS.

EG
9 traders viewing now