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  • #3,741
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:28pm Jan 16, 2008 5:28pm
it should drop at least to 1.4512 before even thinking about going long imo. I personally would go long if it reaches 1.4450.
  • #3,742
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:38pm Jan 16, 2008 5:38pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
I know I may be utterly wrong here, but the more I read about the Euro and the more I see traders almost take it for granted that 1.50 is in the cards.

Just think about this for one second:

if we are "only" 100 pips away from 1.50...and 1.50 MUST BE TESTED before we go down..."it acts like a magnete"...etc...

Why aren't we at 1.50 yet???

Why don't we all just get long and collect the free 100 pips?

It just seems so obvious to me that we are going to 1.50. Everyone is thinking about what to do when we finally reach 1.50. Are we going to 1.60? Are we going to pull back a little?

What if we don't go to 1.50? What is the plan then?
It looks like my comments above proved right for the time being. When something looks too good to be true...

The funny thing would be to see the EURO crashing all the way down to 1.40 and then a monster rally to crack 1.50...

That would send a lot of traders to the psychiatrist...LOL
  • #3,743
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:47pm Jan 16, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
It looks like my comments above proved right for the time being. When something looks too good to be true...

The funny thing would be to see the EURO crashing all the way down to 1.40 and then a monster rally to crack 1.50...

That would send a lot of traders to the psychiatrist...LOL
More likely to the undertaker.
  • #3,744
  • Jan 16, 2008 6:18pm Jan 16, 2008 6:18pm
haha, me was also pushing for the 1.50 test when stopped out by trailing stop at 1.4905
maybe some day, it doesnt look is near at least if Mr.Bernanke lets say cut at least 75points.

then the question is? would the investors go like crazy and buy stock. bonds and all donominated in usd cause the rally is going to spark the big cut?

or would they go into carry trades or other things with the euro. which its economy is sickening and could drop due consecutive reports, while the usd is lifted by good data

dont have any idea, but would be nice to watch this event.

right now waiting tomorrow reports
watch out as the market right now is confused by latest dovish comments from ecb and tomorrow usa data could give an explosion to any side.

the question who remains is why just in 1 week they turned dovish and the ultra hawkish trichet said, the risk have increased considerably but economy still sound but did not commented about raising rates.
  • #3,745
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:27pm Jan 16, 2008 10:27pm
Hey is anyone going to be placing any entry orders during the housing announcement??? I'm in Hawaii so b the time they release the announcement I dont think I will be up (say around 3am). I'm thinking a short order at 1.4575 and if it decides to go up, a long order at 1.4800. What do you guys think???
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,746
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:13am Jan 17, 2008 1:13am
Quoting acidguy
losing confidence on euro in the short term
me too. also just realized today: UK is jsut awful, and EU zone has more exports to UK than to USA, so the impact of the falling GBP is going to hurt soon.

Quoting acidguy
are all the currencies in the wolrd losin their purchasing power?
and commodities the new wealth vehicle?
I fyou're a russian, they are ;P

I'd add that maybe what was once believed - that the global economy is no longer attached to the US economy - may not be so true after all.

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop though on EURUSD. Not holding my breath on an upswing yet.
  • #3,747
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:15am Jan 17, 2008 1:15am
Quoting chady250
Hey is anyone going to be placing any entry orders during the housing announcement???
I'd wager that it's not gonna have much impact.
  • #3,748
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:22am Jan 17, 2008 1:22am
Quoting ItalianSharp
The funny thing would be to see the EURO crashing all the way down to 1.40 and then a monster rally to crack 1.50...
That actually sounds somewhat realistic, if just a tad extreme. on the other hand, it basically already happened: once around thanksgiving, and again around christmas (the latter was really nice: 4330 to 4915).
  • #3,749
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:18am Jan 17, 2008 2:18am
Quoting acidguy
haha, me was also pushing for the 1.50 test when stopped out by trailing stop at 1.4905
maybe some day, it doesnt look is near at least if Mr.Bernanke lets say cut at least 75points.

then the question is? would the investors go like crazy and buy stock. bonds and all donominated in usd cause the rally is going to spark the big cut?

or would they go into carry trades or other things with the euro. which its economy is sickening and could drop due consecutive reports, while the usd is lifted by good data

dont have any idea, but would be nice to watch this event.

right now waiting tomorrow reports
watch out as the market right now is confused by latest dovish comments from ecb and tomorrow usa data could give an explosion to any side.

the question who remains is why just in 1 week they turned dovish and the ultra hawkish trichet said, the risk have increased considerably but economy still sound but did not commented about raising rates.
I really doubt that anyone would go into carry trades by such instability and risk aversion. Carry trades aren't being moved by economic reviews, but by fear. They should only go up when economic growth is in view.
  • #3,750
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:23am Jan 17, 2008 3:23am
Some fat guy just said on Bloomberg that 1.50 is only a matter of time.
  • #3,751
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:39am Jan 17, 2008 4:39am
Quoting Pirin
Some fat guy just said on Bloomberg that 1.50 is only a matter of time.

nice....lol
  • #3,752
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:02am Jan 17, 2008 5:02am
Quoting chady250
Hey is anyone going to be placing any entry orders during the housing announcement??? I'm in Hawaii so b the time they release the announcement I dont think I will be up (say around 3am). I'm thinking a short order at 1.4575 and if it decides to go up, a long order at 1.4800. What do you guys think???
I'm concerned with the short at 1.4575 because of the upsloping trendline on the weekly & 4H charts @ 1.4500 to 1.4550. These trendlines are also supported by the 61.8 fibo of 1.4310 (Dec 20th low) - 1.4922 (Jan 15th high) at 1.4544 and as long as this holds a rebound could be in the cards. I won't even be surprised to see a bounce from the 1.4580-1.4600 zone back to 1.47 or 1.48 and we could even see some sideways action between 1.46 and 1.48 till the Fed meeting later in January!!

"Truth reveals itself in time to come!!"
  • #3,753
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:43am Jan 17, 2008 5:43am
nice and long thread
I follow some news in some forums and news agency, and I find that, for short term, EUR can go up against USD
I know it depends on Oil price and fighting between USA and IRAN
but after following Federal and Europe central bank Chief , I think thees currency stand on up trade
  • #3,754
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:41am Jan 17, 2008 7:41am
Why the price went down just after news at 14.30?
There were not good for dollar so the price shuold go north
  • #3,755
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:47am Jan 17, 2008 7:47am
Quoting young_wu
Why the price went down just after news at 14.30?
There were not good for dollar so the price shuold go north
dont bet on it, all people know usa is in deep hosing trouble, so it not had much impact, the other is unemployment claims, this give some light as the emplyment market has been tightening.

mabe good NFP? also was pretty happy to press the eu buy button but today news dont give clear signals of movements.
euro is also posied with bad news. thats why probably investors are not reacting too much.

by the way, look at the carry traders, they loved the news. so it could be somehow dollar supportive.

also consumers are the backbone of the economy, rigth now housing market has cut big impact on gdp, so......
dollar is lifted, (for now).
  • #3,756
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:58am Jan 17, 2008 7:58am
Yeah I guess ure right, my bad...
Thnx for attention Acidguy

Now I only wonder about the impact around the 16... :/
  • #3,757
  • Jan 17, 2008 8:19am Jan 17, 2008 8:19am
just got this info in a big investment reference page.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE US ECONOMY PROBLEMS WILL COME INTO EUROPEAN UNION SOON

The dollar was strongly supported by European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch who said that ECB should exercise caution as risks to economic growth mount, prompting investors to bet the ECB is shifting its stance toward a cut in interest rates. The crisis in the US housing sector and the fears for expecting recession should come into EU warn ECB. If the leading economic in the world come into recession the chances for recession and serious economic crisis in EU are more than 50% said Peter Mill expert in World-Signals.com. ECB have to think earlier with the interest rates politic and instead to raise the interest rates to think for eventually cut and balancing between the inflation and the expecting problems in the Euro Zone.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • #3,758
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:57am Jan 17, 2008 10:57am
Quoting digitil
I'd wager that it's not gonna have much impact.
Wow it really did not have any critical affect on this pair. Good thing none of my trades got placed hehe.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #3,759
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:05am Jan 17, 2008 11:05am
Beware!!!!

Bernanke Has Just Said, Europe And Asia Economies Not Slowing As Much As Usa.

Is This Man Pro Usa????? It Does Not Look Like, Is Like This Man Want To Destroy Usa Economy.

What A Fake.
  • #3,760
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:07pm Jan 17, 2008 4:07pm
Quoting Pirin
Some fat guy just said on Bloomberg that 1.50 is only a matter of time.
I bet he was a forex nerd from PNB Paribas, wasn't he? They probably have more EUR long than DB...
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