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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,441
  • Jan 15, 2008 6:56pm Jan 15, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting merrittb
made a bad decision today and lost 10% of my account. Was long the Euro and when the big green candle turned into a big red tail I didn't get out like I should have. Then I absolutely "knew" it would not break the 21. Such a rookie mistake. I'm very very dissapointed in myself, my lack of discipline, or even maturity.

I hope you all can take something from this and not do the same thing.

Merritt

Didn't you bank some pips with the yen trade?

Also if you moved you SL when the price went back up didn't you take partial profit?

I entered EUR long twice today - one a few hours after your entry after the strong close and managed to get out at -17 pips. Re-enter after the 1H tails and the nice support basing pattern and got 50% PT 34 pips and other at BE so ended day with a small loss due to commissions. Looking back I think that my second entry might be due to some emotional conflicts from the first loss - but the setup was according to my trading plan. I am learning that this method require a lot of patience and I still need to manage/deal with my emotional state after a loss.

This is my toughest struggle right now - not doing impulsive trades after a loss or being careless after a series of wins. My emotional state prevents my thinking mind from following my trading plan and start doing things that later leaves me scatching my head.
  • #10,442
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:22am Jan 16, 2008 12:22am
Quoting don_tgomez
Hi there,

According to the rule when price breaks above the 21MA in a downtrend, it tends to pull back to the 21MA and then it goes to the 89MA. But here it breaks above the 21 and moves to the 89 and now a pullback to the 21.
Should we expect price to break below the 21 and continue its downtrend?
Will this not negate the rule?
Please advice?

Chart below G/U
Well, according to the rules it can go down and the trend will start again or it may go up to the 89 again, and even through it. So prepare your plan to the both sides .
  • #10,443
  • Jan 16, 2008 4:46am Jan 16, 2008 4:46am
hi Phillip
I use Your system with the addition CCI Stoch'a and MOM...
two days and one night

I made eight GOOD Orders !
and 16% account to the front !!



First Place Championship
Thanks Extremely
once again
my Respect my Master hehehee <ok>
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: next-good.PNG Size: 128 KB
  • #10,444
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:39am Jan 16, 2008 5:39am
My first non trend price Rhythm trade.

Shorted at closed of 07:00 bar on 1H - 4H showed a doji. No 4H confirmation only 1H showing nice resistance - alarm went off due to zero break on 1H. Expecting price to goto 4H 89. Shorted then went back to bed.

Metatrader alert went off at my first PT because I planned setting my software to trail remaining stop using the last bar high on the 1H. But sadly I sat my BE stop move too early and was taken out at BE before the move to new lows. I think I might need to adjust my BE stop movement a little further away.

Was this trade in line with the rules as I was mainly studying TC signals? Stoploss was 39 pips, first PT was 31 pips - again I planned on trailing the stop loss using previous 1H bar high after my first PT was filled.

On this trade my BE stop was automatically moved after 20 pips gained - I think I will recode my software to allow a 1/2 BE stop movement or halfing my SL after about 20 pips or so then move to BE after first PT. I have also coded a few different exit SL strategies and select depending on market conditions (market speed, beginning or end of move, wave counts, counter trend etc) such as : trail 4H 21EMA updated hourly, trail 4H 8EMA updated hourly, trail 4H previous bar hi/lo and trail 1H previous bar hi/lo. I have manually backtested 2 years of charts and if I read the charts correctly to get the market speed/type of price action and select the correct exit to use I noticed I will capture most of a move. Phillips' market rhythm is truly amazing - thank you Phillip.
  • #10,445
  • Jan 16, 2008 6:05am Jan 16, 2008 6:05am
Quoting maxster
My first non trend price Rhythm trade.

Shorted at closed of 07:00 bar on 1H - 4H showed a doji. No 4H confirmation only 1H showing nice resistance - alarm went off due to zero break on 1H. Expecting price to goto 4H 89. Shorted then went back to bed.

Metatrader alert went off at my first PT because I planned setting my software to trail remaining stop using the last bar high on the 1H. But sadly I sat my BE stop move too early and was taken out at BE before the move to new lows. I think I might need to adjust my BE stop movement a little further away.

Was this trade in line with the rules as I was mainly studying TC signals? Stoploss was 39 pips, first PT was 31 pips - again I planned on trailing the stop loss using previous 1H bar high after my first PT was filled.

On this trade my BE stop was automatically moved after 20 pips gained - I think I will recode my software to allow a 1/2 BE stop movement or halfing my SL after about 20 pips or so then move to BE after first PT. I have also coded a few different exit SL strategies and select depending on market conditions (market speed, beginning or end of move, wave counts, counter trend etc) such as : trail 4H 21EMA updated hourly, trail 4H 8EMA updated hourly, trail 4H previous bar hi/lo and trail 1H previous bar hi/lo. I have manually backtested 2 years of charts and if I read the charts correctly to get the market speed/type of price action and select the correct exit to use I noticed I will capture most of a move. Phillips' market rhythm is truly amazing - thank you Phillip.
Your trade was a nice early entry example anticipating a TC downwards. Price closed below the 21, went back to test it and started coming down again.
  • #10,446
  • Jan 16, 2008 6:52am Jan 16, 2008 6:52am
Hi all,

Ok I have spotted a possible break on the EUR/GBP pair MACD is indicating a continuation down, 89 SMA is nearby, the price right now is breaking a support line.

All time frames are indicating a move down.

What do you think guys?
  • #10,447
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:41am Jan 16, 2008 7:41am
Abz:

I see the support you're talking about. But, if I'm not in a position and news has just come out, I let that candle complete itself to let the news get digested into the price action, then make a decision after the close....
  • #10,448
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:55am Jan 16, 2008 7:55am
Palmer:

That makes sense, its 15 minutes to the next candle and its still looking good...

I have just closed my position as I am writing, banked 17 pips i thinks thats enough for me on this pair as i don't trade this usually.

entered: 0.7547
closed: 0.7530
  • #10,449
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:04am Jan 16, 2008 8:04am
Palmer.
I have been WATCHING this pair (eur/gbp) for a couple of weeks now and it has shown rhythm like you pointed out earlier. even today look at this beautiful motion. Price came below 21 , then went back to it , then slightly above it and then came back below it , accompanied with a beautiful tc on MACD on its way possibly down to 89. Nice Rhythm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp.jpg Size: 166 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,450
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:34am Jan 16, 2008 8:34am
Hi Everyone,

Been away last couple of weeks - Lapland... Magic, thoroughly recommended!!

Done some serious self-study after last year's emotional ups & downs. Palmer's messages about patience and Ryan's calm; no need to overtrade; wait for it messages are sinking in at last. To that end, I devised some sheets to give a systematic approach to my chart analysis, (which I sort of had but would ignore when I 'saw' a perfect set-up and thought I'd miss it if I spent ages looking at my charts first!). These sheets have proven invaluable already as they have prevented me taking 2 sure-fire losers already (that looked, at first glance, like sure-fire winners!!). I've attached them so anyone can use them if they want.

The 4 hr chart analysis sheet is just one of a set - there is also a monthly, weekly, and daily sheet that is identical in content. I fill them all out on a Monday, and just do the 4hr and daily sheets Tuesday to Friday, but keep in mind the critical levels noted from the monthly & weekly analyses. Every 'observation' section is filled in, even if it's just a value, but not every 'action' section needs to be filled in, (only if the observation justifies an action, e.g. if observation is "MACD divergence on highs" the action would be "confirm interpretation (regular or hidden, bullish or bearish) and observe for response in candle formation, emotion, etc").

The daily strategy sheet can then be filled in and a trade plan devised.

This all helps to keep the emotion out of trading and helps prevent rushed, ill-judged decisions. Many of you won't have that problem, but if anyone does and they wish to use these sheets or base their own analysis sheets on them, please feel free and do so with my love!

In order to keep calm, I also now do a few mental exercises before I even switch on the computer. I make sure I am peaceful, confident, happy and in a frame of mind that allows me to be resourceful in my trading. I have a copy of the 4 hr MACD rules beside me (kindly supplied in this thread but I forget who by, thanks anyway!). I dress as if I am going to work in an office, even though I'm at home, and, when I've finished, I do a daily recap, close everything down, have a shower and change into my sloppy clothes. Then I can watch telly or do whatever without fretting about what I should have done, or why I didn't do something. All sounds a bit 'hippy' but it helps me anyway! Hope it might help some others as well. Welcome to the New Year and the New Me!

Rebecca,x.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc 4 hr chart analysis.doc   32 KB | 878 downloads
File Type: doc Daily Trading Strategy.doc   26 KB | 859 downloads
File Type: doc Trade Plan.doc   28 KB | 881 downloads
File Type: doc MACD rules.doc   26 KB | 1,019 downloads
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,451
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:41am Jan 16, 2008 8:41am
Quoting BIL2205
Palmer.
I have been WATCHING this pair (eur/gbp) for a couple of weeks now and it has shown rhythm like you pointed out earlier. even today look at this beautiful motion. Price came below 21 , then went back to it , then slightly above it and then came back below it , accompanied with a beautiful tc on MACD on its way possibly down to 89. Nice Rhythm.

Textbook, that's it. My entry on that yesterday was like candy in the check-out isle....gotta have it!

BagLady...a 'vacation' is always needed
  • #10,452
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:14am Jan 16, 2008 9:14am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi Everyone,

Been away last couple of weeks - Lapland... Magic, thoroughly recommended!!

Done some serious self-study after last year's emotional ups & downs. Palmer's messages about patience and Ryan's calm; no need to overtrade; wait for it messages are sinking in at last. To that end, I devised some sheets to give a systematic approach to my chart analysis, (which I sort of had but would ignore when I 'saw' a perfect set-up and thought I'd miss it if I spent ages looking at my charts first!). These sheets have proven invaluable already as they have prevented me taking 2 sure-fire losers already (that looked, at first glance, like sure-fire winners!!). I've attached them so anyone can use them if they want.

The 4 hr chart analysis sheet is just one of a set - there is also a monthly, weekly, and daily sheet that is identical in content. I fill them all out on a Monday, and just do the 4hr and daily sheets Tuesday to Friday, but keep in mind the critical levels noted from the monthly & weekly analyses. Every 'observation' section is filled in, even if it's just a value, but not every 'action' section needs to be filled in, (only if the observation justifies an action, e.g. if observation is "MACD divergence on highs" the action would be "confirm interpretation (regular or hidden, bullish or bearish) and observe for response in candle formation, emotion, etc").

The daily strategy sheet can then be filled in and a trade plan devised.

This all helps to keep the emotion out of trading and helps prevent rushed, ill-judged decisions. Many of you won't have that problem, but if anyone does and they wish to use these sheets or base their own analysis sheets on them, please feel free and do so with my love!

In order to keep calm, I also now do a few mental exercises before I even switch on the computer. I make sure I am peaceful, confident, happy and in a frame of mind that allows me to be resourceful in my trading. I have a copy of the 4 hr MACD rules beside me (kindly supplied in this thread but I forget who by, thanks anyway!). I dress as if I am going to work in an office, even though I'm at home, and, when I've finished, I do a daily recap, close everything down, have a shower and change into my sloppy clothes. Then I can watch telly or do whatever without fretting about what I should have done, or why I didn't do something. All sounds a bit 'hippy' but it helps me anyway! Hope it might help some others as well. Welcome to the New Year and the New Me!

Rebecca,x.
Hi,

Thanks for the attachment it will go a long way in helping me.

Please if you wouldn't mind, can you send me a filled in copy of this documents. I may use it as a template for planning my trade. I'll appreciate it a lot if you could help me in this regard.

Thanks in advance.
"Forex is like a bitch every trader must marry one"
  • #10,453
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:18am Jan 16, 2008 9:18am
Quoting Palmer
Textbook, that's it. My entry on that yesterday was like candy in the check-out isle....gotta have it!

BagLady...a 'vacation' is always needed
mr.palmer ,i want ask u about TC on H1 ,do you mean you wait for price ation
after candle 1 h close.example price action,candle pattern,resis/support,price level,and i ithink more safe tc on 21 ema better than 8 ema on h1,thanks





"Together More Better Than Alone"
  • #10,454
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:56am Jan 16, 2008 9:56am
what happened to our beloved euro
looks like euro longs have to wait again 300 pips for the magical break of 1.5000
why this thread is always quite when the euro gets hit hard
  • #10,455
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:56am Jan 16, 2008 9:56am
Quoting don_tgomez
Hi,

Thanks for the attachment it will go a long way in helping me.

Please if you wouldn't mind, can you send me a filled in copy of this documents. I may use it as a template for planning my trade. I'll appreciate it a lot if you could help me in this regard.

Thanks in advance.

Pleased to oblige. I've copied out my notes for cable from this morning. Just done a daily sheet so you get an idea, and the daily trading strategy. Bear in mind that these are my own observations and they may differ from yours, so don't get too side-tracked by my thoughts. It's just to show you how I do it.

I didn't do a trading plan cos I haven't traded today, kept out so far. But I think the trade plan template is self explanatory anyway?

Hope it helps,
Rebecca,x.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily chart analysis.doc   35 KB | 845 downloads
File Type: doc Daily Trading Strategy.doc   27 KB | 885 downloads
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,456
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:05am Jan 16, 2008 10:05am
yes.. what happened to our beloved euro/us? did anyone caught in the train? i didn't have the chance to go short on e/u which was 150+ pips. I did however, went short on cable which is now struggling +60 pips
  • #10,457
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:08am Jan 16, 2008 10:08am
Quoting mike_dg
what happened to our beloved euro
looks like euro longs have to wait again 300 pips for the magical break of 1.5000
why this thread is always quite when the euro gets hit hard
hey mike, did u managed urself to slide into one of those pairs? they were massive drops
  • #10,458
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:10am Jan 16, 2008 10:10am
Quoting hijackxx@hotmai
yes.. what happened to our beloved euro/us? did anyone caught in the train? i didn't have the chance to go short on e/u which was 150+ pips. I did however, went short on cable which is now struggling +60 pips

centeral banks intervention,
no way euro can go beyond 1.5000, it will be so denagerous on the whole world economy
  • #10,459
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:15am Jan 16, 2008 10:15am
My goodness. My be Mike_DG, the EURUSD is forming what might be the largest 4H bar I have ever seen.
  • #10,460
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:17am Jan 16, 2008 10:17am
man.. 200 pips down in less than 2 hours?? that is criminal. wish i was in that short.
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